Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[saycheese]

I don't know if the Farm system is lacking in general. They have three top 60 prospects in AA or above. 2026 should have Painter as part of the rotation, Crawford in CF and Miller either at SS or 3rd base. If your point is they are lacking Power hitters, that is true. But they have some really good prospects who will start to filter through the big league club this year. I do think we will see the likes of Otto Kemp, Mick Abel, Seth Johnson among others at points this season.

I am not for resigning Schwarber, I would rather take his money and JT money and get Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (who is probably going to average 45-50 mill per year) He is will be 26yrs old. Can play 1st, 3rd and DH. Would be a perfect fit. Marchan/Guerrero JR I believe will be better than JT/Schwarber at their ages in 2026. Plus then you have that next wave on the team of Crawford, Miller, Guerrero JR, Painter, Possibly Abel, Kerkering. Guys coming into their primes like Sanchez, Stott, Marsh(if he is still here). Luarardo.

. Catcher is going to be an issue for a few years until Tait is ready if ever. Ricketts kinda of fizzled. Jordan Dissin is a heck of a defensive catcher, but his hitting is not where it needs to be. He probably makes the majors at some point as a defensive backup but not a starting BCIB type. Tait is 17yrs old but has a real mature approach. He could be here by the time he is 21. If Marchan is stays healthy he can probably produce in that 1 war area for a few years, combine that with Guerrero JR and it could be a good next step for the Phillies.

[zambonir]

Yeah I just mean the farm is lacking big bats at traditional big bat spots. Crawford is not even a sure thing in CF but when he was drafted there was talk of him growing into a corner, and that seems extremely unlikely at this point (well, he could be like Marsh, but not a middle-of-the order guy). And it's still a little early to say Miller will be an .800 OPS major leaguer too, and he's probably a few years away from hitting higher than 6th even if he were to replace Bohm (or force a Turner move quickly).

Sure - if you get Guerrero or Tucker (and I see your point about VG being much younger) of course you don't keep Schwarber. I'm just not sure either is realistic (that the Phillies would win either bidding war or be ready to hand out a $4-500 million contract in general. Also, who's moving to DH, VG or Harper?

Also still not convinced you can let JT go - that Marchan can stay healthy for more than 50 games. Even if he can actually be healthy for 80 he also has to show he's good enough.

[saycheese]

That is what I thought you were thinking. As far as Crawford goes, He was drafted in 22, talk was just that talk. He has gone out on the field and shown he can stick in CF. It happens, players do that. I can't say enough good things about Crawford and his development. Could he back slide this year, sure happens a ton with prospects (look at Mick Abel) but the is on the correct path to be an everyday CF in the majors.

Can they win the Bidding for Guerrero JR. Sure they can, they won the bidding for Turner and Harper. Yes Tucker is on the market and so will Bichette (who was terrible last year but his body of work from the prior years and age will be a good bet for a huge contract) among others. Its not like this year with Soto and a bunch of back end of their prime players available. As far as where he plays, he will play 1st base at times, DH at times, Harper will play 1st and DH at times. I don't prescribe to the fact you need a full time DH. They can play him some at 3rd (although he is not a good defensive 3rd baseman) and give Turner a day off. Would also assume if they make that move they trade Bohm (not for a haul but fair value for a guy on the last year of his contract).

Catcher will certainly be interesting. JT is gonna want another pay day especially if he has a good season. Bob Boone was an outlier as far as being better as he aged. JT is breaking down. So Marchan is probably the guy unless they deal for someone else which is possible. They have a decent amount of money coming off the books. If the bet is right that Painter, Crawford, Miller, Marchan even an Otto Kemp can play a role then they will have the money to not just win a Guerrero Jr. bidding but also go out and continue to add. Even if one or two of those guys are not ready they still be fine.

[phillychuck]

Just curious...what does it mean to "prescribe to a fact"?

[zambonir]

I certainly see your thinking, and with only two years left of Wheeler I guess it is more likely they will just stay over the draft penalty threshold than try to reset for one season. But they could also still compete just fine - if Bohm is good - with this same group (or bring back Schwarber and JT) plus a new LF and Crawford, as they also ease Nick out. And then do a big FA in 2027.

It was a lot easier to sign Harper and Turner. Once Machado signed none of the big money teams made Harper a truly serious offer. Steve Cohen wasn't around yet. And Turner was part of a four-shortstop market that the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and Mets weren't shopping in (in fact the Dodgers and Red Sox let two of them go).

[Austinfan]

The point is there are a lot of bad DHs making serious money. Only a dozen or so 2+ WAR.

If you can't find a 3 WAR type like Schwarber is right now, you don't want to pay serious money for a 1 WAR DH.
Better just to use a low cost platoon. And if they can play on the field as backups, that makes it easier to put a bench together.

The Earl Weaver philosophy.

[andyb]

If you can't find a 3 WAR type like Schwarber is right now, you don't want to pay serious money for a 1 WAR DH.

Nobody is suggesting that. Sometimes I am not sure where your points come from.

I said if Schwarber left JT would play more DH as part of a rotation on the assumption that his bat would be OK in the spot. I mostly prefer a rotating DH that could get players like Castellanos off the defensive field more often. Having a rotation at DH actually adds a roster spot for your AAAA guys. I just don't want to build a bench of guys that can't play much defense like you seem to want to do.

You put way way way too much stock in guys like Kemp and Rincones who are really not great prospects. Could they fill a bench role if they improve? Sure. But guys like them are a dime a dozen also in the AAAA bat market. It is just not a solution. Remember, it is not your money building this roster. I too wish the prospects were better but they really aren't.

[zambonir]

The point is there are a lot of bad DHs making serious money. Only a dozen or so 2+ WAR.

I mean, there aren't, really. Cutch just signed for $5 million. Rhys only makes $12 million and can still play 1B. Joc Pederson's worth his deal. There are not any 1 WAR DHs making more money than the average bench player. Of course it's better to have guys who can hit reasonably well who you can put out in the field. But if you can have a Schwarber or Ohtani (he only makes $2 million lol) you want one.

[Austinfan]

JT would be an overpaid DH, you have to hit at a higher level than he'll be at in a couple years.
He's RC+ 110 right now, in two years?

Marsh RC+ 120 against RH, Sosa 110 against LH, Castellanos 133 against LH, Wilson 178 against LH (SSS)
You can have good fielders who can give you good numbers in a platoon.

A full-time DH who can't play on the field really has to be RC+ > 120.
Because they have no other value.
Whereas a DH platoon with players who can field creates a deeper bench.
So either go big or go split.

[zambonir]

Nobody is making JT a DH! Just a guy who might DH 1O (or even 20 times) on a team that doesn't have a 162-game DH already. So literally already the thing you are arguing for, except in the Phillies' case Casty would still be the 100+ game DH next year.

[Jazzhead]

I think it is usually foolish to construct a roster around a full-time DH, since the flexibility afforded by the position makes it easier to construct lineups and keep multiple regulars sharp over the course of a long season.

Schwarbs may be the rare exception to that rule if he we think he can sustain for a few more years his combination of power and plate discipline. I'd favor resigning him for, say, 4 years on that basis. Carlos Santana, for example, remains valuable at close to 40 years of age.

[zambonir]

Santana's never truly been a DH though. He's still a really good 1B. 146 starts last year. Even won his first Gold Glove! 135 and 136 two of the previous three season. Did more DHing in the other

The truth is Schwarber is a good enough hitter to still play LF. He's not necessarily worse than Nick, for that matter. He was just injured in 2023 (after the WBC), and that affected his overall conditioning as well.

No team has paid Santana more than 8.75 million a year since his Phillies deal either (and Cleveland had the benefit of not even having to pay that in full for his 33 and 34 year-old seasons). He was not very good for a lot of those either. From 2020 to 2022 he was an average or below-average hitter. Only started bouncing back in '23 and '24.

[allentown]

I too wish the prospects were better but they really aren't.

And my fear is that even you are over-estimating the quality of our prospects and the Phillies ability to advance them to their full potential.

I've followed the pharm for decades. Tocci was the answer in CF, he just needed to add strength. He flamed out, despite superior D. I was (I guess still am) among the biggest Rojas boosters as our future CF. Very encouraging career start in 2023, big step back in 2024 -- although, at least still positive WAR. In addition to a $2+ million bonus, the Phillies couldn't have given a bigger PR boost to Yhoswar 'the drone' as a future CF -- never had a chance. Now I'm reading on this board both that Crawford will be our CF in 2026, if not by the end of 2025, and that the Phillies, at this late stage in his development, are trying rather desperately to reduce his propensity to hit way too many ground balls. With that flaw, it's hard to see him as our CF by the end of the coming season.

I was a big Dom Brown booster. I don't think the Phillies handled him well, but he certainly flamed out quickly after being our top prospect and giving an encouraging first full season: from 3.2 WAR to -1.3 WAR the next year, in a full season of play.

We all thought Kingery was a huge piece in Phillies future, with the ability to hit well and play good D at 4-6 positions. The Phillies thought so highly of him that he was given an unheard of (for Phillies) multi-year contract as a rookie. A 2.5 WAR in his second full season, then gone, with a career WAR of 0.5.

Stott started well, took a step back last year.

Bohm took a big step forward last year, with a WAR of 3.0. Phillies seem(ed) determine to trade him and switch in an older, more expensive vet.

The Phillies did very well with Nola and some home-grown relief pitcher.

By and large, the team has a horrendous record Givat signing and developing OFs, and to a lesser extent middle IFs, despite drafting and signing a ton of them.

Given the history, the enthusiasm about counting on building the team's future around the minor leaguers mentioned in recent posts seems optimistic. If he stays healthy, I see Painter as a sure thing. Then Miller as a high probability plus player, Tait as high ceiling but a big risk of not reaching it.

One thing we learned this winter: the Phillies have come to a place where $ matter to them and play a big role in decision-making.

[zambonir]

Well, when Macphail came in he said, grow the arms, buy the bats and while the era he and Almaraz and Klentak oversaw really didn't do either (and, in fact, drafted bats) Barber has certainly leaned towards pitching and lighter-hitting/defense-minded prospects (Bohm preceded him), and they, have in fact, almost exclusively bought the bats (except for the one guy they let leave).

It's understandable that we feel the weight of Phillies history, and sometimes with good reason considering how long Middleton has actually been around and that Gillick, Bowa and Charlie remain in the inner circle, but I don't know that the reasons Dom Brown and Carlos Tocci failed are necessarily the reasons Rojas or Crawford might disappoint. Same with Maikel Franco vs. Bohm.

That JP Crawford trade still doesn't look very good though! Team didn't actually win until Segura's last season and Kingery didn't work out either.

I still have high hopes for Stott to be at least a Cesar Hernanez caliber player. Which is also what I think Bohm is (he could be worse if the defense isn't for real, or slightly better if the bat comes back strong).

But no stars. Not one. The best we can say about Crawford and Miller is they are good prospects for their draft spot.

[allentown]

I was too hard on Stott. His hitting took a step back last season, but he has been a consistently plus defender and di put up a 2.5 WAR this past season. He is just another example, like Kingery and Brown, of our young players backsliding, rather than getting better.

Crawford has a world of ability, but he concerns me. This is late in his development for the Phillies to be deciding they must change his swing, because he hits way too many balls on the ground. That's a serious red flag. Well two red flags: the first that his hitting is inadequate and the second that the Phillies coaching may ruin what he does well, which is contact. His average -3 degree launch angle and high chase rate are serious issues. Not at all clear to me that he's better than Rojas, despite higher ceiling.

[MichaelJackSchmidt]

Concern is warranted. The Phillies are not known for improving players. They tend to make them worse.

[Austinfan]

I don't think we're talking major tweak with Crawford, he's not going to become a 20 degree angle, three outcome hitter. Rather, change the angle slightly so he hits more line drives and fewer GBs. Maybe work on improving his plate discipline.

Stott regressed last year, but I think he can bounce back, he's shown the ability to adjust and has good bat control.

I'm less optimistic about Bohm, I think pitchers figured him out after a hot start and I'm not as confident in his ability to adjust back.

Miller is where they gambled and won on his injury, a healthy Miller might have been a top 10 pick.

Tait is the one that intrigues me, unless there's fraud involved concerning age, to put up a .760 OPS at 17 years old in A ball is fantastic. He's still filling out that frame and should add more power. A lot of risk at that level, but I think he has superstar upside. He's not Ortiz, who was physically mature at 16 and never improved.

[zambonir]

It's not like they are trying to turn Crawford in to a power hitter. They are not the only ones in baseball - in fact it might be everyone in baseball, thus his slightly diminished prospect status and trade value - who believe he won't be good enough with his current GB rate. We like to think the Phillies ruined Moniak but he might have never made it the other way either. But the people from that regime are long gone (on the other hand, that guy got a World Series ring two seasons ago at his next job, and already had one from his previous one in Houston too, so maybe it does go deeper into the organizational DNA).

[allentown]

We like to think the Phillies ruined Moniak but he might have never made it the other way either.

Moniak had one decent season in 2023 at age 25 and then backslid last season.

Yes, Miller is where they gambled and won on health, as we did with Hamels. Not yet clear how heavily we won with Miller, but he has certainly outplayed his draft slot up to now.

[Callison]

Concerning JT, the addition of a backup catcher that can hit might improve his hitting. All the time off in the middle of last season was necessary for him to heal, but likely cost him some consistency at the plate. Maybe JT has a couple more peak years playing some 100 games.