Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[allentown]

And a fair amount of Realmuto's come from his defense and on-field leadership. He is worth less as a DH.

[phillychuck]

Worth less, but not worthless!

It's a fair point that we don't know how much JT's offense would improve if he were not subject to the daily rigors of catching.

[andyb]

Putting JT in as DH rather than Schwarber would be be an incredible offensive downgrade. JT is no Perez.

Against LHP there is probably not that much difference (knowing that Schwarber last year against LHP was an outlier compared to the rest of his career. Schwarber's career OPS against LHP is only 739. Last year was 898 but it was only 758 in 2023. JT was at 782 last year so assume he was 800+ after his surgery and his career is in the 780 range as well.

If Schwarber is there and playing well we probably don't play JT at DH that often, but it is not outlandish. And in 2-3 years if we choose to not resign Schwarber it might make a lot of sense. The point about Perez is that his bat got BETTER when he was DH more often. The same could happen with JT with a little more regular rest from playing catcher.

[julio]

For the time being, the organization doesn't have to know how Realmuto might fare as a DH. They have another season of Schwarber in that role, and another season to evaluate whether Realmuto is worth a longer-term gamble.

At some point, JT is going to hit a wall. (All MLB players do!) No, we don't know when that will be, but he'll be playing at age 34 in 2025, and statistically (notwithstanding random outliers), he's much more likely to decline than to improve. His OPS+ the past two seasons (OPS+ of 107 for 2023-24) have been his two lowest since his rookie year (2015). If I were Dombrowski, I would very much want to see what JT does in 2025 before making any decision about a multi-year extension.

Ditto Schwarber. However, Schwarber is two years younger than Realmuto, and is coming into 2025 from from a very strong 2024 campaign. Moreover, he can be offered a QO after 2025 (which he would probably decline, but he might not, and if he leaves as a FA, at least there's compensation), which changes the calculations somewhat, if he has another strong season.

Regardless, this is next winter's issue, not this winter's.

[andyb]

His OPS+ the past two seasons (OPS+ of 107 for 2023-24) have been his two lowest since his rookie year (2015).

Some of the decline may be due to injury. On OPS+ (SSS of course) he was 103 in the first half this year and 120 after he got back. I am pretty hopeful for something around 110 this year assuming no new injuries. Will there be regression in the future? Of course. Do we have an obvious starting catcher for 2026? Not yet. If JT has a good year there is a very good chance that he signs an extension for better or worse. The mid-30s catcher comps are really hard to do with somebody like JT. But I think he'll probably get a 3 year deal and the Phillies might be willing to pay that price (they might do both him and Schwarber but Schwarber is probably easier to replace).

[zambonir]

Any scenario where JT plays DH, even for just 10 games, is one without Schwarber. It's pretty unusual for most teams to have a single DH or a great one, which is why Schwarbs will remain valuable. But if they were to let him go and sign, say Tucker, than Nick becomes the DH, and maybe Bohm and JT get a few turns there too. Heck in a perfect world Marchan is not only the other catcher but is hitting well enough to DH occasionally himself. In an even more perfect world Crawford takes over CF and is a key offensive player.

If they sign Schwarbs for 4 or even 5 years that fixes Harper at 1B too. Of course by then there might be a true rebuilding year.

[dicemen99]

I feel you're just reaching to make a case for JT to be on the team.

His only plus value moving forward is as a catcher and history tells us that has a very short shelf life. His bat has been pretty consistently average at best for the other positions he could play for a couple of years.

Yeah, DHing could delay his further decline, but he would have to improve significantly while Schwarber declined significantly for them to be on even footing as a DH. What are the odds of that given Schwarbs is 2 years younger.

I expect that Schwarber will again be our best hitter next year, and yes, I'm paying him 3/30 after he does.

[BostonRoss]

I don't have high hopes for JT long term. Of the 10 most similar batters through age 33 according to b-r, there are two Hall of Famers who had many good years after 33, and eight guys who did very little. (Mike Lieberthal is #3; he played two more seasons after 33, one injury-filled year with the Phillies, and one year as a Dodger backup.)

[zambonir]

Age comes for everyone but JT is both an outlier and a pretty high-end catcher compared to what's out there, even if he's not what he was in his late 20s.

I don't think I would go 30 for Schwarber. 25, certainly. And then ideally JT closer to 15, in which case you are just paying them the same as now. But I still pick JT if it's one or the other because there are a dozen ways to replace a DH and probably only three or four to replace a starting catcher. Especially when you also consider his apparent meaning to the pitchers.

1 for 1 comparisons aren't useful I realize but Chooch, who probably should not have been re-signed more because of where the team was heading, put up 4.6 BWAR at 33 (in 114 games) and 3.1 at 35 (in 110). With a respectable 1.6 in between. Yadi, probably the closest thing to JT in his time, was still catching 100+ games with a 3.0 WAR at 33, and then 1.3-1.7 the next three seasons (with no reduction in playing time, which probably made his numbers worse not better).

Bob Boone was implausibly long-lived (if up/down) too, I recall from previous discussions.

Our old pal D'arnaud just signed a two-year $12 million deal for his age 36 and 37 seasons. JT for 16/14/10 for 34-36 doesn't seem crazy. Might be harder to get him to agree to play less than to take less money.

[dicemen99]

I agree with a lot of what you said, and, really 25 is probably 30 given what's going on this off-season.

What I'm arguing with is the idea of moving Schwarber to give you the flexibility to DH JT which is the vibe I'm getting from some. There's no reason to force JT into the DH role part-time (which means you're cutting ties with Schwarber). Just sit him on the bench and rest him.

Although there ARE ways to replace a DH, to replace Schwarber s offense is going to cost you at least 30M - so just pay him. I've already posted why I think he's a much better candidate to have limited decline over the next few years.

[zambonir]

I don't think Andy or anyone thinks getting JT ABs as a DH is a reason to move on from Schwarber. Merely that it's worth considering preserving the flexibility of the DH spot going forward if it's not a sure thing to keep Schwarbs. The spot still won't really be open next year if he leaves, because it would go to Castellanos (just hopefully not for 155 games).

As for Schwarbs possibly decline or not, only time will tell. I don't know if we can expect his reverse splits or all of his adjustments to endure. He probably won't hit .197 again but then again he had a horrible - if abbreviated - season when he was just 27, he could easily sink below 30 HRs and down to 115-120 OPS as a 33 year-old.

Like Julio says, probably not a debate for this year. Though I think they will try to extend JT early if they can. He may yet be harder to keep, he didn't get quite the bidding war he thought he would last time but that was coming off the COVID year.

[allentown]

The Phillies age-less wonder catcher was Bob Boone. Cup of coffee with the Phillies at age 24, full-time C at age 25, WAR peaked at 3.5-3.6 in age 30/31 seasons, 0.3 WAR at age 32, negative WAR at age 33, sold to Angels prior to age 34 season. Total of 13 WAR in Philly. Bounced right back to 3.5 WAR at age 34, then less good years, before ending his Angel's stint with 3.1 WAR at age 40. Played final two seasons in K.C. including a 2.4 season at age 41. Totaled 14.4 WAR after the Phillies sold him So... over half of his career 27+ WAR came at age 34 and beyond. He caught that whole time, although fewer games as he aged. Always a very good defensive catcher, with only one negative dWAR in his career and a +1.9 dWAR at age 41. Truly remarkable.

[zambonir]

to replace Schwarber s offense is going to cost you at least 30M

This is really the big problem....we all know how much has been lacking from the farm, but Ryan Howard and Rhys Hoskins were both 5th round draft picks. Of course the Joseph/Ruf/Hall stories are more common. But 1B and DHs do get traded too.

[Austinfan]

Actually, a Ruf/Hall type platoon would probably be pretty productive for a couple years.
Kemp/Rincones as DH and bench depth? Or something like that?
But that's your fall back, there are a lot of bad DHs, it's one thing to pay Schwarber $25M, quite another to pay a declining veteran 3/60 for 1-2 WAR per year.

[julio]

I expect that Schwarber will again be our best hitter next year, and yes, I'm paying him 3/30 after he does.

Kyle Schwarber wasn't the Phillies' best hitter in 2024, and he probably won't be in 2025. That would be Bryce Harper.

Comparison:

Player	OPS+	bWAR	fWAR	wOBA	wRC+
Bryce Harper	149	4.8	5.2	.380	145
Kyle Schwarber	137	3.5	3.4	.366	135

All advanced measures say Harper was a better hitter (and contributed more overall) than Schwarber.

[BostonRoss]

Some catchers mentioned upthread and what they did before and after their age 33 seasons:

Chooch - Age 31-33: 367 G, 10.3 oWAR, 5.3 dWAR, 127 OPS+
Age 34-35: 202 G, 3.9 oWAR, 2.1 dWAR, 97 OPS+
Age 36-38: 201 G, 1.5 oWAR, 1.4 dWAR, 76 OPS+

Boone - Age 31-33: 336 G, 2.4 oWAR, 2.3 dWAR, 86 OPS+
Age 34-36: 424 G, 1.0 oWAR, 6.4 dWAR, 66 OPS+
Age 37-42: 715 G, 4.7 oWAR, 10.0 dWAR, 79 OPS+

Yadi - Age 31-33: 393 G, 5.6 oWAR, 4.8 dWAR, 98 OPS+
Age 34-36: 372 G, 5.1 oWAR, 1.8 dWAR, 95 OPS+
Age 37-49: 241 G, 1.6 oWAR, 1.1 dWAR, 74 OPS+

JT - Age 31-33: 373 G, 11.3 oWAR, 4.6 dWAR, 115 OPS+

Everybody dropped off somewhat after their age 33 season, not surprisingly. Chooch was the only one of this group close to JT offensively age 31-33, but he dropped off defensively and even more offensively afterwards. Boone was never much of an offensive threat but still dropped off a lot though became much better defensively based on dWAR, to the point where he is in the top 20 among catchers in career dWAR . I can't imagine there are many if any others who had such a defensive upturn at that age. Yadi maintained his offense through age 36 (though he was not at JT's level), but his defense dropped off noticeably.

It goes to show everyone is different, but it still seems the odds are long for JT's performance not to drop off a lot in the next few years.

[andyb]

Actually, a Ruf/Hall type platoon would probably be pretty productive for a couple years.
Kemp/Rincones as DH and bench depth? Or something like that?

So you're going to devote 4 roster spots and half your bench to mediocre 1B/DH types? Teams just can't do that at 2 positions and even when they do it with one there is probably a better defensive player involved.

You are way too invested in just penciling in minor leaguers like Kemp and Rincones to major league jobs. More of them are like Hall who are simply good AAA players that are not good enough for the next level.

[andyb]

One more AAA catcher. Henry is probably more the defensive option compared to McIntosh (just acquired in the Lazardo deal).

Phillies, Payton Henry Agree To Minor League Deal

[zambonir]

I think he meant Kemp/Rincones would be the equivalent of Ruf/Hall. But no. Definitely better to have Bryce Harpers and Ryan Howards and Kyle Schwarbers! Nothing wrong with having one of those guys on the bench if you don't have a fixed DH, but with this team's logjam of DH types and the short bench they have pretty consistently avoided anyone who can't at least play 3B or LF. Hall has his chance - health is what really hurt him when the window cracked but if he could have played passable LF there would have been plenty of others.

[zambonir]

Only 16 players with 350 PAs or more put up an FWAR of 2.0 or higher last year (JT was 15th). The game has moved to more of a two-catcher model but it's still hard to come by a 1A who's ready to just step in. Anyone as good or better as JT would just cost more (in $ or trade).

Seems like one of these catchers either goes to AA or gets released. You always have too many in spring training I guess. Though carrying three in AAA also possible, and McIntosh had more time in LF and at DH than C last year.