Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[bkox]

What changes if anything? Only major FAs are in the bullpen.

Kevin Cooney speculated that he thought Bohm might be shopped but I dont know who would take his place.

Do the Phillies eat Taijuan Walkers contract or hope hes good again in 2025?

[MichaelJackSchmidt]

I feel like they don't need to make a lot of changes, but what I saw on the field during the last half of the season and the postseason indicates otherwise. All I can think of at the moment is they MUST have a combined outfield that has a WAR higher than -1. Baseball is a tough game, and just because you lose in the first round doesn't mean you have to make major changes.

[Jazzhead]

We were a fantastic first half team that caught the white hot team in the first playoff round. Still, we had leads in two of the games we lost, so the perhaps obvious first answer is to change out the bullpen (e.g., Hoffman and Estevez).. They're both free agents, but if they demand no more than what their considerable skills are worth, I have no objection to resigning either or both. This may be a case where the Mets buzzsaw clouds sound reasoning - our bullpen was a strength this year.

Bohm has worked hard to become a good fielder and seems to have the knack of getting ribbies in key situations. My main annoyance with him is that he is SO slow. But unless Aiden Miller is ready, I'd give him the benefit of the doubt and spend our resources elsewhere.

I like Rojas in center because a championship team needs not good but superb defense in center. The obvious position to upgrade is left field, but the position that seems most susceptible to decline next year is catcher. I suspect the Angels won't take Marsh back for O'Hoppe.

[allentown]

I think they keep Walker at least through ST. Pitchers can be up-and-down from year-to-year, so for those $ it's a risk worth taking. I think the bullpen is a poor place to spend limited $ on a major FA.

[Dirk41]

This team has the potential to be historically good.

Trea Turner needs to be Trea Turner.

I think it's time for a playable backup catcher.

Question for the room, would Bryce ever go back to the outfield???

[Austinfan]

Dombrowski first has to accept that it's time to stop throwing big money at free swingers.
Then accept that they may need to make some changes in pro scouting.

This team was exposed the second half and in the playoffs.
Even if you fix the 5th starter problem, the aging core, the inability of anyone in the pen to close, the lack of plate discipline have to be addressed.

I'm not sure it can be in one season, they need to keep building the farm system which hasn't produced the kind of young players that can supplement an aging and declining core.

I'd trade Sosa, his value will never be higher.
You're stuck with Bohm until Miller is ready, 2026?
Crawford is another free swinger, can you work with him?
Stott's value is so low right now you're better off trying to rehab him.

They're close enough to the "cap" that Middleton can't buy their way out of this hole.
And the Turner/Nola deals may replace the Castellanos/Walker deals in 3 years as money on negative WAR, so without more talent coming up, they won't be able to buy big name players in the future.

[DurhamBull]

Question for the room, would Bryce ever go back to the outfield???

I don't think they go that route. It means trading Castellanos (which will be difficult, at least if the Phils want any return), and then finding someone to play 1B. In addition, I don't think anyone is sure Harper can still play RF effectively, so once they've made those commitments, if the Harper in RF experiment goes badly, then what? IMO, of all the potential offseason changes to consider, moving Harper off of 1B should be very far down the list.

[andyb]

The Phillies' problem is not "free swingers" and discipline. It is that they failed to hit in these crucial 4 games, a small sample size. They were 5th in OBP and 7th in walks in the majors.

What do you do in the offseason? I think we'll see a major rebuilding in the bullpen. The lineup is constricted a bit by contracts. Bohm will be better. It is not "the league figuring him out". It is Bohm getting hurt late and never getting his swing back. Bohm and Stott will be fine. Marsh is in a little more trouble. And Rojas will need to hit more or Crawford will be in CF by July. Bryce stays at 1B because it is not like we have another 1B anyway unless it is Schwarber.

Running it back one more time with tweaks is not the worst choice out there. Painter will be coming in the 2nd half so you really don't need to replace Walker if you don't want to. First 4 in the rotation seem set and you might bring Turnbull back to compete for the 5th spot again.

This was the best team in the NL most of the year (or at least neck and neck with the Dodgers). You don't need to blow it up. We don't really have the prospects to make it much younger though integrating Painter and Crawford and maybe Rincones as a platoon bat will help. The older players may get a little worse, but that is kind of the bed you make with long term contracts. There is no reason to think Harper and Turner cannot still be all stars. Bohm and Stott clearly need to step up even if neither may be a long term fit (Miller and Caba could both replace them when they are ready and Bohm and Stott start to become more expensive. But for next year there is upside in both players.

[EDmuch]

Left Field! Left Field d! Left field !!! It is so dog gone obvious. Marsh must go. You can’t have 2 of your 3 outfield spots as offensive dead zones. Offense has to be added on the outfield hopefully as a real clean up hitter to bat behind Harper. I see no reason to continue to rag on Casty when it is so obvious that Marsh does not cut it offensively as a LF.

[fish]

Turner to left, Stott to short, Bergman at second? I realize Bergman hasn’t played there but a reliable rh middle of the order bat that won’t strike out 160 times feels like a good plan.

Justin Crawford’s spray the ball approach would be a welcome addition too, but that’s hoping he’s ready by June I guess.

[Taudawg]

I think they will mostly run it back. That may not be what I'd like them to do, but I think that's what they'll do. They'll have to add some new bullpen pieces of course, but there's not much of value to trade (right now), little coming off the books and few free agents that would be clear upgrades.

The Braves will be healthy and better next year. The Mets have some free agents to deal with, but with Cohen's money, could be even better next year. The Nationals, in case you haven't been following, have a rising young team with lots of money to spend this offseason. If the Phillies suffer any major injuries or regressions next year, they could be a fourth place team. That might be best though. If the Phillies aren't in the race at the 25 deadline, they have lots of interesting names to trade - Schwarber, Realmuto, Suarez, Strahm, Alverado and could even get out from under Castellanos' and Walker's deals if they are having decent seasons.

[Austinfan]

They'll run it back b/c they don't have the cap room for major changes (unless Middleton wants to burn off a chunk of his wealth and cripple the farm system going forward).

But don't expect different results unless some changes are made.
But yes, the league has adjusted to some players, some players adjusted back, some didn't.

Bohm is getting a lot of inside heat, jamming him. He has to lay off pitches too inside and learn to turn on the inside strikes.

Stott is different, I think it's all in his head, he should be a walk machine with his ability to hit with two strikes, but that will take a different approach (be willing to take borderline pitches). With his speed, if he can increase his OBP he would be perfect batting 2nd.

Rojas has to learn how to bunt and to stop swinging wildly, chased too many pitches outside a foot off the plate.

Castellanos actually made adjustments after his horrid start, stop chasing low and away breaking stuff as much and forced pitchers to give him something he could handle.

On the other hand, Marsh regressed. Hays was awful. The AAA plus guys played as well for a lot less money.

Turner is not going to age well if he doesn't change his approach. Seems to be looking for the FB and chases high 4 seamers and low breaking stuff.

The Nola extension was a mistake, his command simply isn't what it was, and that's why he gives up so many HRs - his stuff isn't good enough to get away with pitches in the sweet spot. He may be #4 in a couple years if he can't turn it around, innings eater but can you trust him against good hitting teams?

If the reports about Ranger's conditioning are correct, this season should be a wake up call. I expect a short-term "prove it" deal, when on he's elite, but no one can count on a half season pitcher (Walker a warning).

Not a lot out of the farm come spring training, though Lehigh and Reading should have the best group of young talent we've seen for a couple decades I think - but most is 1-2 years away. Painter, then Crawford. Ricones? Miller probably 2026 or 2027. Tait 2027 or 2028? So 2025, and maybe 2026 could be role out the veterans and pray.

[zambonir]

This was the best team in the NL most of the year (or at least neck and neck with the Dodgers).

But was it really, or is the .500 second-half (33-33) more indicative of its true quality going forward? Not that it has to be the .646 team of the first half either, obviously there is middle ground, but it is just as possible that next year's team misses the playoffs (like the Rangers and Rays and Blue Jays and DBacks all did) than it can be pencilled in for 90 wins automatically.

I'm also not sure Bohm is fine. He performed at such a high level in April that it masked what wound up being pretty much a normal Alec Bohm season (ironically the defense, at least per WAR, may have been the exception). Of course you only trade him for value (and because you know he's not staying long-term anyway) and also need an alternative. Marsh could also stay in a CF platoon if they go get a big LF.

Bullpen's not so bad. If they don't bring back either Estevez or Hoffman they will have to being back another Kimbrel or Knebel type, or trade for another Soto or Alvarado type, so be careful what you wish for. The pain of that will be more in the longer-term deal they are both likely to get, not in how they pitch next year. And they have to decide whether Alvarado can be great again. But all the scouts and GMing in the world can't guarantee great playoff relief pitching. I do think a lot of that one is on the layoff too. Guys were out of rhythm and then a few of them got overused (including Hoffman yesterday who warmed up three times). I'm more of the school that if you need your bullpen to win every game you are going to lose. That's the bed the offense made.

[Philsmania]

Cue The Clash. Should they stay or should they go?

Estevez: Go, not worth the money he'll be seeking and swallow the fact that getting him was a typical Dombrowski mortgage the future move.

Hoffman: I'm on the fence. Was his terrible late September and October just a blip, the product of overwork, an overdue reversion to mean or just a case of a reliever being a (typically fickle) reliever?

As I said in another thread, the Angles POBO or GM sure has a knack for picking Dombrowski's pocket (O'Hoppe, Klassen, Aldigherri).

Marsh: Go, while he still may have some value.

Walker: Stay, at least through ST. He has no value and attitude and work ethic were not his probelm. Give him a fair shot to make the team in ST and if it doesn't work out, then cut him and eat the money.

Castellanos: Go, coming off two decent seasons, he has some value. Get what you can for him.

Hays: Stay, for one more season.

Suarez: Go, especially if his contract demands are still high. Should net a good return.

Alvarrado: Stay and hope the positive side of reliever fickleness comes around.

Stubbs: Go, great guy but we need a more durable backup catcher.

Bohm: Stay, for now but it is a gamble that his value will go lower.

The bullpen: Strahm, Kerkering and Alvarrado return as should Ruiz though reliever fickleness is a concern with Ruiz. Otherwise, it may have to be completely rebuilt. Keep Banks for now, he's not even arbitration level yet. He is 34 years old though. Even so, if he doesn't work out, he's unlikely to be a painful contract to eat. What you see is probbly what you get with Kerkering. He's probably the new Dominguez.

Turner: How about move him in LF and either get a new SS or have Sosa play there?

Sosa: Go, if he is not the next starting SS.

Acquistions will need to be at least one OF who works good at-bats and probably an infielder. Perhaps a guy to platoon with Stott or a new SS. Relief help would be good. And, if Suarez is moved, he'll need to be replaced. I doubt they go after Soto.

[Austinfan]

Caba is the future SS, but he's 3 years away, elite defensively but has to get stronger and at least become a .650 OPS hitter. That of course is the problem with Rojas. Meanwhile I'd stick with Turner.

Sosa should be traded at peak value, he totally lacks plate discipline so I think he has a low ceiling as a starter (the league will focus more on his flaws in that role) but for a lot of teams he can fill an IF hole as a 2-3 WAR player - could get you a top bullpen piece, young OF or back of the rotation starter.

The problem with trading Castellanos and Bohm is you don't have viable replacements in 2025, Crawford, Ricones and MIller are probably a year away, maybe second half at best.

[Philsmania]

The return for Casty, Bohm and Suarez would need to include an OF, SP and 3B if all of them are moved.

And, Tait is probably the catcher of the future though he is probably three years away as well. We'll need a bridge guy for a couple of years after Realmuto.

[andyb]

That is way too many people going. You just can't eat all those big contracts. Sosa for instance is a perfectly fine value as your backup middle infielder even with an arbitration raise. Turner and Stott with Sosa backing up is just fine in the middle infield for another year or two.

I agree Marsh needs to get better. And we'll need to add a couple of bullpen arms with both free agents and trades possible. Not sure why Ranger needs to go with one more arbitration year also. Casty won't get as much so again, not sure he should go.

Blowing the whole thing up would require trading major prospects and I am nowhere near there. We have an expensive team but have largely retained our better prospects. That is not the worst place to be. We'll eat a contract or two like Walker, but we can't just get rid of lots of major contracts with no cheap replacements in sight. I'd love to add Santander for instance, but less in love with another $30 million a year on top of Casty's $20 million.

[zambonir]

Yeah as good as Casty wound up being he still doesn't really get you anything. He is more valuable in the line-up then being paid $10 million a year by the Phillies to play for someone else in return for a couple of prospects or a middle reliever. He's not getting you a major league starter.

I think Suarez is available based on the Phillies interest in Crochet. And because of Painter. They may just figure they aren't going to extend him, and also don't really think Walker is going to be anything other than sunk cost depth and actually do want to upgrade the rotation. If Ranger helps get you a bat you have money for an arm.

[andyb]

Gelb summarizes it pretty well here. Probably add an outfielder somewhere. Significant decisions to make on the bullpen. And what to do with Bohm (where he agrees with me that the best thing is to play it out until Miller is ready and then let him go in a couple of years).

Three key questions facing Phillies in critical offseason that will bring change

[Austinfan]

Reason I'd trade Sosa is he can start for a lot of teams so he has more trade value than value as a backup.
Stott can play SS and they have plenty of backup types in AAA ball. And Miller can probably play SS as well as Turner at this point in his career.

Marsh would be more "our disappointment for your disappointment" type deal.

With a year of arb, they might do a 2 year deal for Ranger, but I doubt they go long-term given his durability issues.

Hay might get traded with one year left, as a platoon RH, Wilson might be just as good and a lot cheaper for a year.

Since Ricones and Crawford are both LH, there is a RH gap in the OF going forward, a good reason to keep Castellanos, the contract is a sunk cost and he won't get you much in trade.