Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[jimbomill]

We do not have a 40 home hitter in our system to replace Schwarber.

If DD can find a way to take the big hit next year by signing Alonzo, we'd have the 40 HR player for the following season, plus a doozy of offensive potential this upcoming season (and beyond if Schwarbs returns/resigns).

[zambonir]

Alonso is unlikely to be available next year (unless he signs a one-year deal or has an opt-out). Or did you mean this coming season (technically still next year I guess)?

Either way, he's probably not a 40-HR player going forward either! Only 34 last year. Mets are gonna keep him anyway.

I think you either keep Schwarber or get off the DH train completely, at least for one year (the year that Nick's still here).

[jimbomill]

Alonso is unlikely to be available next year

My assumption was that DD gets Alonzo for more than one year. I think Alonzo 30.

[Philsmania]

I am surprised the market has been so tepid for Hoffman &:Estevez.

[allentown]

My assumption was that DD gets Alonzo for more than one year. I think Alonzo 30.

This coming season is his age 30 season. Still, for whatever reason, he has shown significant decline. it looks like his rookie season at age 24 was his career year (5.5 WAR, 53 HR). Discounting the Covid short season, he was over 4 WAR the next two full seasons. Since then: 3.2 WAR in 2023 and 2.6 WAR in 2024, despite playing all 162 games last season. His SLG was down to .459 last season, significantly below any other season. Those are all red flags. They explain why nobody has rushed to sign him to a longer contract. Beyond that, the Phillies have no place for him. He just plays 1B and DH. We have Harper at 1B and Schwarber as DH. Both are better than Alonso. Alonso is not even good defensively at 1B. No way he could play 3B credibly.

[zambonir]

But then it seems you are saying the Phillies should sign Alonzo right now. Which makes no sense. There's no place for him to play even if they did want to shell out $40-50 million (half salary, half tax). And it's pretty unlikely he'll be back in free agency next year.

I don't think the market is tepid for Hoffman and Estevez, no major FA reliever has signed a multi-year deal yet except for Treinen staying with the Dodgers. Once Scott signs everyone will, or maybe one of those guys will go first. And if Hoffman's still considering a starting job there are teams that might come knocking if they don't get Burnes or Flaherty (or even Pivetta).

[jimbomill]

I did preface the statement "DD can find a way", not just financially but roster-wise, also. With Schwarber and Harper being true left-handed power, I think that Alonzo from the right side would contribute. I'd very much like to see a right-handed power bat added, somehow.

[phillychuck]

Harper has stated repeatedly that her is not moving back to the OF, so Alonso, Schwarber, and Harper can't be in the same lineup without playing a defensive butcher somewhere in the field. This acquisition is not going to happen outside of a fantasy league.

[xogfog]

I wonder if LF would be easier for Harper to go back to the outfield, it is less demanding than RF and if they could trade Castellanos then signing Alonso would be possible. Kepler is better in RF. The trick in finding someone to take Castellanos, which, his contract is suddenly not that outrageous. I think if you came up to Bryce and said, if you could play LF because we want to sign Alonso, he would agree to do it.

[zambonir]

The only way to "find a way" would be to trade Schwarber (or move
Harper to OF). Like PC said, neither is happening (nor is Castellanos getting traded or reduced to a weak side platoon, not that a one-for-one swap of him for Alonso wouldn't be good).

And also, Harper is a good 1B! He's not a good OF.

I think concerns about Alonso's performance and future are also why the Mets haven't already signed him. They will have the win-win situation of getting to step up and keep a beloved player while getting a cheaper deal than he hoped to get on the open market. He turned down 7/158 last year.

Rosenthal recently said "the entire industry" believes he'll be a Met again.

[Austinfan]

If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
Harper is becoming a plus fielder at 1B, which is actually pretty rare and adds real value.
He also has less wear and tear there.

There will be players in Lehigh who may contribute this year, Crawford, Miller, Rincones, Kemp, Kennedy.
Stubbs/Marchan, Sosa, Wilson, Rojas on the bench.

[zambonir]

The topic is more how to replace Schwarber next year. But I don't think there is a DH/mediocre 1B who is actually better than Schwarber, Alonso included. If they do let Schwarber go his ostensible replacement will be someone who can more regularly play the field (if not well/all the time).

And if the Phillies need some RH power off the bench Rhys Hoskins will be cheap next year (though he's in decline too).

[andyb]

There is a speed path to replace Schwarber also. Turner moves to the OF (maybe along with Crawford). Casty to DH, Miller to SS.

It's a different team with less power, but it might have a chance to be pretty good in its own way. I think Turner is more likely to eventually move to 3B or 2B, but the OF should be an option and he played some early in his career.

[dicemen99]

I'm not sure why we are discussing replacing Schwarber. He's our best hitter and is a high impact bat relative to the league and his position. A top 20 hitter in the league. He has not shown signs of decline, and his position may lessen the impact of his decline. He has shown a desire to change his approach and work on his body to combat age. You won't have to back up the Brinks for him because of position.

Are we just discussing this because we love flexibility? To me it makes no sense. I don't care that having to play him at DH stops us from using this for JT or Harper. I'm not moving our best hitter to allow JT to ride into the sunset with us.

[zambonir]

I think you have to keep JT more than Schwarber, but there's also no reason to have to choose unless JT is able to get a really good deal (I.e. an AAV higher than his current one). I for sure keep Schwarber, the flexibility thing should only be on the table if he leaves. I'm just not sure it's true that you won't have to back up the Brinks for him. If you have to give him $25 million AAV or a 4-5 year deal, do you do it? At that point I might pay Tucker $30/7 or just get a cheap guy on a one-year deal until you've also cleared Nick and Bohm's $.

[Jazzhead]

I think if Schwarb replicates his 2024 season next year and would accept a $25 million AAV deal for four years you do it. After Casty leaves, the issue of flexibility in the DH role becomes less important (Harper would rarely need to "rest" at DH when he's playing at first).

I agree that signing Alonso makes no sense; Schwarbs is the better DH and better investment.

[andyb]

We don't want to replace Schwarber. There just could be the reality of a deal that is close to $30 million AAV for 3+ years. The market is going that way. If I could magically make Casty's contract go away and tack 3 years onto Schwarber's contract today I would do that in a heartbeat. The problem of too many DHs is very real also. It might be nice with an older roster to have a rotating DH, especially if we extend JT.

[Austinfan]

We extend JT to play 110 games at catcher, not to DH.
He's not a good enough hitter to be a plus player at DH, but at the right price, he's still valuable in a reduced role at catcher.

[andyb]

You actually don't know if JT's bat wouldn't pick up as a DH. It has done wonders for Salvador Perez' career.

If we extend JT it will be because of his bat in part and it won't be just to hit in 110 games. They will be thinking of him as a 750 OPS guy not a 650 OPS guy and that 750 OPS bat is certainly playable within a rotating DH. Just because JT does not like the role now, does not mean he still can't embrace it as part of a relatively large contract (it still could be close to $20 million a year JT had a much better OPS in the second half after he came back from the surgery (788) compared to before (720). Hopefully he is primed for a really good year this year even with a slightly reduced workload (120 games as opposed to 130).

[EDmuch]

Putting JT in as DH rather than Schwarber would be be an incredible offensive downgrade. JT is no Perez.