Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[zambonir]

Yeah it would only matter at the deadline if they wanted to take on some money. But they do seem to want to save money!

[andyb]

I guess the only other thing they might do is bring in somebody better than Wilson, though if they want Kepler to play most of the time I assume they are good with Wilson and/or Clemens in that role. They don't seem to want to bring in another right handed CF to let Rojas play in AAA but I suppose that is possible too for minor signings (likely AAAA players without much of a guarantee).

[BostonRoss]

$4 million for Ross.

I wish

[bkeich]

They've done enough. By replacing Walker/Phillips with Luzardo/Painter they saved the bullpen 30-60 IP plus added 5 wins over last season, so a regression would be from a 100 win baseline. That's a nice cushion going into the season.

The biggest worry is the lack of SS prospects in the system, only Rincon is viable, and he's got a lot of risk. Saliltban is already at 2B.
Who is their 2025 LA target?
They're going to have to add a couple SS prospects the next year or two, Turner ain't staying there indefinitely and Miller will probably lose too much range as he fills out to stay there past 25 or so.

I wonder if the future SS isn’t already playing (Stott). Eventually he will become expensive, but he may not be very expensive and I think he is probably already the best defensive SS on the team. They might just need a 2B prospect, which is a lot easier to fulfill.

[phillychuck]

The system has quite a few decent SS prospects, even minus Caba. All those guys except maybe Miller could shift to 2B if that's the direction they want to go. Miller is more likely to stay at SS or move to 3B.

[zambonir]

Stott is only barely viewed as a good enough SS now (or even when they drafted him). He did well when they put him there but if he was truly great they would not have been so eager to get Turner. Obviously he's still better than Turner, but he's a better 2B, and won't be right for SS as he gets to the wrong side of the age curve (when they'll also have to decide whether to keep him).

Next SS is probably just a short-term free agent if it's not Miller.

[phillychuck]

If Miller develops Turner will hand the position directly to Miller. If Miller doesn't develop, they need to hope one of the other young guys steps up. Rincon is a great fielder, can he learn to hit a bit more? Saltiban can probably hit, but is he more of a 2B? Farquhar is also probably more of a 2B, and he sort of came out of nowhere.

Trading Caba probably indicates they are betting on Miller.

[zambonir]

Well we just hope Miller develops somewhere. He could still be a 2B. He could still be a 3B. He could be great defensively at either of those spots and more than good enough offensively without necessarily being right at SS.

I still think the Phillies can't afford to cut Schwarber loose but it would sure be a lot easier to have that DH spot open. I suppose it would just go to Casty for one year anyway but after that it could truly revolve. And they are still probably going to need a FA corner OF.

[phillychuck]

Phillies think Miller will stay at SS. Other scouts say he might move to 3B. He is probably not suited to 2B, they tried him there in Florida and he didn't have the mechanics to make the turn on the DP--probably a bit too tall and he has a longer throwing motion.

[andyb]

If you look at the Statcast arm strength ratings Stott is below average for SS. Turner was about league average these days but has more of a legit SS arm than Stott. In terms of range and hands Stott might be better at SS these days but his arm makes him better suited at 2B where he can be gold glove caliber.

Watching Miller develop defensively will be fascinating. If he can stick at SS it makes lots of other things possible. Turner at 3B and Miller at SS could actually be the better defensive lineup in a couple of years.

[allentown]

I still think the Phillies can't afford to cut Schwarber loose but it would sure be a lot easier to have that DH spot open.

Despite a drop in HRs, last season was Schwarber's best as a Phillie. His K-rate last year was his best in Philly. He should be good in his age 32 season this year and I think we will want him in 2026 (a shame that DD gave 5 years to Castellanos rather than Schwarber). Not keeping Schwarber past this season may be a necessity. It doesn't make sense to give him a long, expensive extension, but I think another team will offer that. He is a contract trap for DD. I don't think we should want age 35 and older Schwarber, but it will tempting and the media will push DD to extend him through age 36-37, which I expect his agent to push for.

[zambonir]

I think the Walker and Pederson signings might bode well for the ability to get Schwarber on a three-year deal. Maybe with an option. Maybe with an opt-out (though I don't think Phillies have done one of those yet). Or maybe they don't mind giving him four or five for the AAV savings, knowing it will be dead money or he'll be part-time. Walker's still elite defensively. Pederson is not as good as Schwarber but is also basically a DH. His free market value will be reduced by the QO too (though if he takes it, even better).

[andyb]

I think Schwarber will get a variety of offers assuming he has another similar year. A 2-3 year deal in the $25-$30 million AAV range likely. 2/60 or 3/80 seems about what the market will bear. If Christian Walker gets a $20 million AAV these days Schwarber will get more even without the defense.

[Austinfan]

Schwarber worked hard to get in shape and it paid off, so that's one thing in his favor.
But hard work can only delay the inevitable decline temporarily.

[zambonir]

Good DHs have long lifespans. Not at the level (or pay) he's at now of course, but J.D. Martinez was in the post-season. Cutch just re-signed with Pittsburgh. Justin Turner is 40.

But I'm not convinced Schwarbs can get that big a raise given his age. He was 29 when the Phillies signed him, and teams also know what his down years look like (not like he's going to go back to 2020, but certainly his 2023 is probably more typical going forward, a 115-120 OPS+ guy).

All depends what he does this year I guess.

[andyb]

Surprising but Walker is 2 years older than Schwarber and got a 3-year deal. Schwarber will be a year older next year but 1 year younger relative to the contract. Imagine Walker's defense will decline too over his deal. Bottom line though is that Schwarber is just a better hitter and probably more likely to be above average in 3 years given his pitch recognition.

I like his chances (after another 40 HR year for us of course).

[UnsaltySailor]

Someone will overpay for Schwarber next year. Exactly why the Phillies should extend him a QO and hope he accepts, but be ready to walk away if he doesn't accept. I like Kyle, who doesn't. He shouldn't decline much over 25 & 26, but looking a statistical comps on BR, similar players hit a steep decline between ages 33-35.

[EDmuch]

We do not have a 40 home hitter in our system to replace Schwarber.

[zambonir]

Well that is for sure. But they might prefer to sign an external free agent. Doesn't have to be a pure power hitter either (i.e. Tucker, who would cost a lot more but is younger and more potent overall and can play the field). Or maybe they get your boy Rooker. Also possible, a new 3B, but easier said than done.

[allentown]

We do not have a 40 home hitter in our system to replace Schwarber.

Very true, but that doesn't mean Schwarber will be a 40-HR guy 3 years from now. He had 38 last season and, in many stat ways, that was his best season in Philly.