Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

In my humble opinion Luzardo is at best a #5 starter even if healthy. His advanced numbers stink. His career ERA+ is over 4. If fans think he's a #1 or #2 starter they are going to be sorely disappointed. Hope I'm wrong...

Seems like most people in baseball see him as a 2-3, and certainly not a 5. Health questions, sure. But who doesn't have those? And he's younger and less expensive than most of the #4 caliber FAs we've seen get deals already this year. Manea is 33, has a career 4.00 ERA and just got three years $75 million. Zach Eflin will be 31, has a 4.17 career ERA and makes $18 million this year (though he has outperformed his contract in terms of both health and results). And of course Tai Walker is 32 and has a 4.19 career ERA and we know what he makes. Luzardo is about youth and upside. There is risk, but clearly the team is holding the line at the last threshold, and if he's only a 5, that's actually all they need. And it won't be hard to outperform last year's guys (even Turnbull given he was no healthier/better than Luzardo after his first magical little run).

I see him as a #3 with a shot to grow into a #2 if he stays healthy. I don't get the #5 at all: I see the stats you quote, but confess that I concluded long ago that nothing in baseball analysis is as seriously flawed as relying upon 'career stats' to predict performance over the next couple years. Luzardo definitely was a #5 type at age 22 and 23 and in his bath health age 26 season last year. At age 24 and 25, when he was converting to starting, he looks like a clear #3: 10.5 K/9, 3 BB/9, 8H/9, of which one is a HR and 3.4 FIP. That's not a #5 pitcher. He was not a full-time starter until half-way through his age 23 season.

Anything older than 3 years ago is irrelevant for most baseball players. Especially pitchers.
What I look at is the trends of his pitches, is his velocity falling off? Is his slider less effective? And so on.

https://x.com/MattGelb/status/1871300654590992583?s=1952

Seems a buy low candidate. Had a decent year in 2024 after several mediocre ones.

Seems that the Phillies lux tax pinch has driven them to mine for buy-low candidates. There seems to be sound logic behind all of them. Given the tax situation, I think DD has done well thus far. I like these deals/signings better than the rumored ones. Red flag on Ross is he's only pitched in 2 of the last 5 seasons, although one of the 3 lost years was a voluntary sitout of the covid year.

That really suggests they are going to figure out a way to offload Walker (or let him go). Ross made 10 starts last season and 11 of his other 15 appearances were multi-inning. He could also replace Banks, which, given how lefthanded the rotation is now, might make sense (and Banks can probably be traded, if not for much).

I think the As are trying to reach a salary minimum to avoid a grievance from the MLBPA. Is there a deal to be done with them for Walker?

Them and the Marlins both. Any poor, non-contending team would be smart to find a way really, if the Phillies pick up half his salary and then he bounces back, you could trade him at the deadline. But every team also knows he could wind up being a FA they could have for $800K too.

If they want someone to pick up Walker, they are going to need to pay much more than half…the Phils should be willing to pay all but $1-2m for each of the two remaining seasons - and it would be worth it to save up to $4m over the next two years.

Or maybe they don't see Ross as starter depth at all. Once he stopped last year he never went back.

He became one of Milwaukee's most reliable arms down the stretch, putting up a 1.67 ERA over 15 relief outings. He had 27 strikeouts in 27 innings as a reliever after striking out 39 in 47 innings as a starter.

https://www.mlb.com/phillies/news/joe-ross-free-agent-contract-with-phillies6

He was hitting 94.8, the highest of his career, how much is SP v RP I don't know.
But it suggests his arm is back.
The key for him making a jump is improving his change-up, right now 2 and 4 seamer, slider, but none is a plus pitch. If they could improve his change it would give him a weapon against LH hitters.

$4 million for Ross.

It sounds like the Phillies still intend to keep Walker, though that could certainly change. If he flops, he won't have even that "we'll pick up a few million" trade value, and will just be DFA'ed.

If he bounces back, you could still get the 50% trade, maybe even sweeten it with a prospect if the cost savings allows you to take on something you really want at the deadline. But I just don't see how he'll get the chance to pitch enough to rebuild that value as an 8th reliever or 6th starter. Spring training certainly won't be enough. But I guess you never know, especially with Painter now basically ruled out for the first half of the season. Walker would still be one injury away from the rotation if he's on the 26-man roster to begin with (and if he's not, he's probably not in the organization).

I was a little surprised they added Ross, though prior to the Luzardo trade it definitely would have made sense. Good value at $4 million if he only stays in the bullpen. Another quality voice in the clubhouse too.

I think we just blew through that $301 million threshold. Makes it easy to do the low volume Painter plan as well. I think they have always targeted 100-120 innings for Painter max and this would let them do extended Spring, 20 in the minors, and the rest starting at the All Star break with some flexibility based upon need.

They may still have a plan to get back under that threshold if they want. It doesn't become official until the end of the season anyway. Maybe they trade Alvarado. Maybe they trade Ranger at the deadline. Maybe they get something going with Walker. I know this team still can't afford to give away prospects, but prospects also have a pretty fixed range of monetary value - if you could save $18 million in actual cash (50% of his remaining deal) and an additional chunk of change in penalties while also adding something you really need at the deadline (a power bat or another relief arm presumably), you do it.

Jose Cuas loses his roster spot to Ross.

And:

The Phillies signed several players to minor league contracts, including three pitchers with major-league experience: lefty Nick Vespi and right-handers Joel Kuhnel and Nabil Crismatt.

They've done enough. By replacing Walker/Phillips with Luzardo/Painter they saved the bullpen 30-60 IP plus added 5 wins over last season, so a regression would be from a 100 win baseline. That's a nice cushion going into the season.

The biggest worry is the lack of SS prospects in the system, only Rincon is viable, and he's got a lot of risk. Saliltban is already at 2B.
Who is their 2025 LA target?
They're going to have to add a couple SS prospects the next year or two, Turner ain't staying there indefinitely and Miller will probably lose too much range as he fills out to stay there past 25 or so.