Probably because Crochet's advanced stats and performance are better than Luzardo's...?? And crochet is two years younger?
My autocorrect changes "Luzardo" to Lizard every time if I don't stop it. If we want to post about him without being confusing, tell your autocorrect to learn the spelling!
But Crochet has only been a starter for one season and has his own injury history (TJ, shoulder). For sure, youth and Luzardo's injury are the factor, but he was close to an ace before this past season, and only has to be a 4-5 for the Phillies this year, and maybe a 3 next year.
MLBTR:
In 279 innings of work for the Marlins between 2022 and ’23, Luzardo dominated to the tune of a 3.48 ERA (129 ERA+) with a 3.40 FIP. His 96.7 mph average fastball velocity was near the top of the scale for left-handed starting pitchers, and his 28.7% strikeout rate ranked eighth among starters with at least 250 innings of work in that time, sandwiched between Dylan Cease and Shane McClanahan.
And from the Inquirer:
“The only issue is health for Jesús, but he can pitch like a [No.] 1 or 2 on any given outing,” a talent evaluator from a rival National League team said Sunday morning. “The best is yet to come for him.”
MLBTR also notes, I'm sure correctly, that Walker will just end up at the 8th bullpen guy, but that still might not be sustainable. If they do hang onto him and he's okay he would also still be good depth as the #6 next year (assuming Ranger's gone).
Same 2 years of control though. Age is really not as much of a factor when a player is in their prime years (25-29) and both are. And while Luzardo's performance has been very uneven, he has generated 6.8 WAR in his career compared to 5.9 for Crochet so it is not as if the advanced metrics say he is worse. More innings of course, but it is harder to be a young starter in this league. Each of them has had 1 4 WAR season.
Is there probably a little more upside with Crochet? Yes based on last year. There is less performance though and serious questions about him handling a starter's workload.
This was a fair deal. Caba is a good prospect but was very far away. And we might think Miller is actually a SS.
That does seem strongly implied.
Either way, this is another good move for a team that has no other path but to trade future WAR for present WAR and they have once again done that without losing their top 3 guys. It's far more likely Luzardo bounces back and signs a $25 million AAV deal at the end of his contract (whether with the Phillies or another team) than Caba ends up being more than a Galvis or Sosa (if that).
Following the Kepler signing, Dombrowski suggested they were pretty much done and happy with the roster. That's clearly not the case. There are still lots of teams hunting for upgrades.
Recent news suggests Luzardo is 100% - https://www.mlb.com/news/jesus-luzardo-on-returning-to-full-health-being-ready-for-2025-opening-day16
That is certainly quite possible, which is why this trade is a gamble. If he is healthy, he is much more than a #6/7 pitcher on a good team. Last year was a bad year for him, probably health related. If we look at his two prior years, he is a 3.5 FIP guy with very high FB velocity for a LH SP. That's at least a #3 SP. Thus, the gamble: Luzardo could be a total steal for us or he could crash and burn with a repeat, or worse, of last season. This is the sort of gamble that the presently-constructed Phillies needed to make to be strong WS, or even NL East champion, contenders in 2025.
He's entering age 31 season and hasn't pitched well. They had many choices of guys to remove from 40-man and chose Tyler.
I think you are making that gamble on every pitcher, always, with both injuries and fluctuating performance. Ranger could just as easily have a 2024 like Luzardo's 2023, though obviously the Phillies didn't have to trade anything for him. Walker actually earned his salary in 2023 and then his 2024 happened. Something could go wrong with Sanchez and non-tendering him wouldn't be an option.
Gilbert might well get traded off the waiver wire, albeit for cash. He too can refuse his assignment, not due to service time like Taijuan, and also he has no guaranteed $, but he's been outrighted before.
I just wish he showed more for the price. Even when he was good (2 seasons), he missed time. If we are aiming to get 20 starts of 3.50-4.00 era than I think we MAY have gotten it. The problem is, that isn’t really worth Caba.
Ranger had a 5.62 ERA in eight second-half starts last year while providing only 36.2 innings. Luzardo had a 5.00 in 12 first-half starts and 66.2 innings. The only difference is Ranger was great and healthy in the first half whereas Luzardo was already hurt in April and shut down by June. But they were comparable guys in '22 and '23.
I think 20 starts of 3.50-4.00 ERA is still worth a heck of lot. Especially if you think a 5th starter (or 4th playoff starter) is important. I still don't know that I do, but we saw what the worse-case could be with that last year.
The question really is the chance of that (signs that he can do it, signs he can’t) worth our #6 prospect. Especially since he won’t be cheap in those 2 arbitration years after this.
I just see too much bad in his history, equal numbers of bad and good seasons. Seems like if this is what we wanted it must have been available in free agency.
Only one arbitration year after this one. If he pitches well for us he'll get $10 million and be an insane bargain. If he's just okay he'll still be worth the $8 million.
It clearly wasn't available in free agency. You'd be paying someone Taijuan money.
IMHO, Ranger to the pen makes some sense because the Phis' pen needs improvement. Ranger was dominant the first half then never the same last season. Suggests he's not strong enough to last the whole season as a starter. So if he's dominant pitching less, put him in the pen. He could close after 6. Might be really good for Ranger and the team.
So Ranger to the pen and Walker back to the rotation?
Ranger's either gonna start or get traded, and no, neither he nor Scott Boras would be on board with a bullpen move even if it was a good idea.
They'll still add another arm for the pen, no reason not to now that the threshold is pretty much a done deal. Just a question of whether it's a $4 million type guy or if they are willing to pay double (plus 10%) for something bigger. Won't be anyone worthy of a multi-year deal though IMO.
Which makes sense given that their remaining needs on offense are minor and can be filled internally (Marchan, Wilson). As for the pitching, it may be in for a penny, in for a pound. If the opportunity presents itself to sign a short-term deal with a quality reliever, I think they'll pull the trigger and pay the luxury tax,
There's no reason they have to trade Ranger now. Neither of them is a lock to be healthy all season given their histories. Painter is waiting in the wings, but will likely have a short leash with IP and isn't a lock for '25. They can wait for the right deal if it materializes and trade from the cat bird's seat.
I wonder if Hoffman would take 2/24. I would rather do that then give up Caba for a guy with a worst track record the last couple years.
He has a bad track record for one year. Heck he has a longer track record than Sanchez (and Crochet. And Hoffman for that matter, since it's still possible he's going to start again).
Giving up Caba for him was also the final confirmation that Ranger won't be here next year.
Well, 2021 was also terrible. So 2 above average and 2 terrible years, and injuries in 3 of the 4 years enough that he missed 1/3 to 1/2 of the seasons. That isn’t awful, but it isn’t good either.
He is at 103 ERA+, that doesn’t sound good to me, that is slightly better than average. When you factor in that the most recent year was terrible, well, I would just want more for a top prospect.
I would rather have Hoffman, keep Caba, have a guy with 2 very good seasons the last two (bad before) and a guy that you greatly suspect can succeed in the bullpen if nothing else. But I don’t know that Hoffman would take 2/24, but he very well might with a promise that he can at least start the season in the rotation.
Either way, it is funny dealing with the Marlins. They don’t EVER seem to be interested in doing anything except being good in 5 years.
Just odd that this was the Expos that constantly sold their good players for prospects. The Marlins are no doubt looking at another 100 loss season after briefly going up in the standings 2 years ago.
I like Caba, but I'm not sure he's a sure thing.His fielding is, but his hitting could keep him as a defensive substitute if it doesn't dramatically improve the next few years.
Caba has speed, has very good plate discipline, but is really weak. How much strength he can add (see some other scrawny LA IFs we've had) probably determines his upside. .479 OPS in Clearwater due to low BABIP, "normal" BABIP would have results in more like .660 OPS - but how much was BABIP due to complete lack of power?
Whereas with Tait, the plate discipline could be improved, but he held his own in low A at 17, posting a .780 OPS.
Overall .842 OPS his first season stateside.
I think Hoffman is going to get a three-year deal as a reliever or a starter. He can get the same deal as Holmes as a starter and Tanner Scott hasn't set the relief market yet. Not one major reliever has signed actually, just some trades. Chapman is second-tier and Holmes ceased to be one. Romano is actually the biggest signing other Treinen staying with his team.
I still hope Hoffman falls to us, but the odds of that are near zero I suspect with this trade. Who knows.
Hoffman is very underrated, he was probably our best reliever last year and I don’t see much reason why he can’t start (other than the first ~10 seasons of his career)
I think he's properly rated. He was always expected to cost more than Estevez, and teams wanting him to start is also a sign of how highly he's thought of. The fact that they jumped at Romano also says they thought he would be hard/expensive to sign.
Never say never, but they needed an OF, one high end reliever and a 5th starter and they've gotten all of that, with the Luzardo moving being way more than was expected (even if it was at a cost compared to a Turnbull, or just going with what they already had).
Only way I could see them going bigger on a reliever is if they trade Alvarado.
Caba may turn out to be a solid major league starting shortstop, but that is far from a certainty. I have seen many top prospects disappear into oblivion. One thing that makes for a consistently good organization is the ability to know which prospects to trade while they have value and which prospects to hold onto and who eventually become solid ML starters for your team. How the Phillies are doing that now, we will know in a few years.
Luzardo may not ever give the Phillies much, but he certainly has potential. Again, what he does for the Phillies remains to be seen. One thing for sure, Luzardo is more likely to help the Phillies in 2025 and 2026 than Caba. That is why this deal was done.
I agree that one more reliever is very likely to be added to the roster before spring training starts. There is also the chance of additional trades this off season. I don't think DD every is not looking to make a move if he thinks it makes the team and/or organization stronger.
I know Caba's ceiling could be high (and his floor still good as well) but I find it kind of hard to lament the loss of a 19 year-old whose OPS was below .500 in low A (admittedly in late/limited action). Anytime you can trade someone who is that far away (as opposed to Crawford, or O'Hoppe for that matter) it's not a bad thing for a team in the Phillies position.
Still don't understand why everyone thinks they need another reliever, or where he'd slot?
Romano
Strahm
Kerkering
Alvarado
Ruiz
Banks
optional # 7 spot (Lazar)
long/swingman (Walker and like five other candidates)
This team's success has pretty consistently been with less heralded relievers, whether a total dumpster dive like Hoffman or a journeyman like Strahm. As opposed to Kimbrel (who was decent but not elite) or Estevez (ditto) or Knebel or Soto (an All-Star close). And don't even think about the 2020 team. It's just too bad there doesn't seem to be another Kerkering or Seranthony in the wings, though there still could be.
The coaching staff also deserves a lot of credit for how they've tutored and utilized both the relievers and less heralded starters (just not Walker or all those other guys last year alas).
They could use someone who could upgrade ALvarado (which one do we get?) and especially Ruiz and Banks who are middle innings guys. But not worth an overpay.
They should be bringing the "usual suspects" to ST with opt outs, hopefully they can hit on another Hoffman or Ruiz.
Just weighing in on the Jesus trade. I really like this deal. Caba is really young and pretty far away. SS in the farm system was really a strength. Figuring Miller is still there, they still have Saltiban and Rincon. Rincon is a guy I have heard again Mattingly talk about pretty highly. In other words this is a trade from an organizational strength. Boyd is not really anything, the same with McIntosh.
Jesus at worst is a quality 5th starter for us. At best he adds to staff as a solid 3/4 type. Almost like Joe Blanton to the 4 aces. I have to wonder with the Kepler and Jesus additions does that make a deal of a Suarez or even Marsh and Suarez for another quality bat make some sense. Maybe. Wouldn't surprise me if they look in that direction. Kepler can play some CF, so its almost like they could get a RF or LF and slide Kepler into the platoon with Rojas (which might make more sense)
You need middle innings guys to pitch the middle innings! Banks didn't show much last year but he's better in that spot than Soto ever was just in terms of length, and technically should take what used to be Strahm's role before he rose up the ranks (replacing Alvarado really). Ruiz rose from the 7th or even 8th to 5 or 6.
At this point it's purely about the tax. You sign another $10 million reliever he actually costs $21 million.
OK, Ranger is playing for a big Boras contract in '26. Here's hoping he doesn't burn out midseason again. He could be headed to the sore-armed pitcher's home and there will be nothing to sell. Warrants consideration by Ranger and Boras.
The Phils will be keeping Walker and it will be on Walker to show how much talent he has left. He'll likely create his own role from the pen . If that crowds the pen, some less expensive reliever will be cut.
Is Tanner Scott a possibility?
If only it could be as clear as “bring him up when he is hot, Send down when he is throwing batting practice”. He was one of the streakiest relievers because of one simple issue, anything he threw in the strike zone was big trouble. His cutter was great, but ONLY if he could get guys to swing at it when it was low out of the zone, which was suprisinly often.
I would give him a shot on a minor league deal. We will need more than 8 relievers, maybe he could fill a role for part of the season.
He probably still gets a major league deal from someone unless it's more financially prudent for him to take a non-guarantee. He pitched fine last year for the Cubs, with the usual adventures and them playing games with his contract, but then he fell apart finishing up in Houston.
It's interesting a rotation which had no LHPs for so many years will now have three.
Suarez won't move to the pen any time soon, but if everyone stays healthy the path is now there for both a six-man rotation (for a while) and for Suarez and Painter to have more of a swingman role in the playoffs (Suarez hasn't actually made a relief appearance since 2022 but his starts have often been short by design).
So it seems that, right now, if they do nothing else and have gotten the arbitration figures right (and this article is right), the Phillies could still start the season under the "Cohen" threshold.