Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[zambonir]

Walker gets the $36 million even if he refuses the assignment.

The price of this trade seems a lot better than it was for Crochet.

[zambonir]

In the meantime, Tyler Gilbert DFA'ed to make room for Luzardo.

[MichaelJackSchmidt]

Agreed - I might need to give Dombrowski a D- or an F.

[phillychuck]

The price of this trade seems a lot better than it was for Crochet.

Probably because Crochet's advanced stats and performance are better than Luzardo's...?? And crochet is two years younger?

[phillychuck]

My autocorrect changes "Luzardo" to Lizard every time if I don't stop it. If we want to post about him without being confusing, tell your autocorrect to learn the spelling!

[zambonir]

But Crochet has only been a starter for one season and has his own injury history (TJ, shoulder). For sure, youth and Luzardo's injury are the factor, but he was close to an ace before this past season, and only has to be a 4-5 for the Phillies this year, and maybe a 3 next year.

MLBTR:

In 279 innings of work for the Marlins between 2022 and ’23, Luzardo dominated to the tune of a 3.48 ERA (129 ERA+) with a 3.40 FIP. His 96.7 mph average fastball velocity was near the top of the scale for left-handed starting pitchers, and his 28.7% strikeout rate ranked eighth among starters with at least 250 innings of work in that time, sandwiched between Dylan Cease and Shane McClanahan.

And from the Inquirer:

“The only issue is health for Jesús, but he can pitch like a [No.] 1 or 2 on any given outing,” a talent evaluator from a rival National League team said Sunday morning. “The best is yet to come for him.”

Phillies acquire pitcher Jesus Luzardo in trade with Marlins

MLBTR also notes, I'm sure correctly, that Walker will just end up at the 8th bullpen guy, but that still might not be sustainable. If they do hang onto him and he's okay he would also still be good depth as the #6 next year (assuming Ranger's gone).

[andyb]

And crochet is two years younger?

Same 2 years of control though. Age is really not as much of a factor when a player is in their prime years (25-29) and both are. And while Luzardo's performance has been very uneven, he has generated 6.8 WAR in his career compared to 5.9 for Crochet so it is not as if the advanced metrics say he is worse. More innings of course, but it is harder to be a young starter in this league. Each of them has had 1 4 WAR season.

Is there probably a little more upside with Crochet? Yes based on last year. There is less performance though and serious questions about him handling a starter's workload.

This was a fair deal. Caba is a good prospect but was very far away. And we might think Miller is actually a SS.

[zambonir]

And we might think Miller is actually a SS.

That does seem strongly implied.

Either way, this is another good move for a team that has no other path but to trade future WAR for present WAR and they have once again done that without losing their top 3 guys. It's far more likely Luzardo bounces back and signs a $25 million AAV deal at the end of his contract (whether with the Phillies or another team) than Caba ends up being more than a Galvis or Sosa (if that).

[UnsaltySailor]

Following the Kepler signing, Dombrowski suggested they were pretty much done and happy with the roster. That's clearly not the case. There are still lots of teams hunting for upgrades.

Recent news suggests Luzardo is 100% - https://www.mlb.com/news/jesus-luzardo-on-returning-to-full-health-being-ready-for-2025-opening-day

[EDmuch]

DD said they were done on the offensive side

[allentown]

This guy is more of a #6/#7 starter on a good team. I am confused.

If he continues to pitch like this he will be non tendered after this season due to his increasing cost. Goid news is that maybe this means we aren’t even going to bother with Walker.

That is certainly quite possible, which is why this trade is a gamble. If he is healthy, he is much more than a #6/7 pitcher on a good team. Last year was a bad year for him, probably health related. If we look at his two prior years, he is a 3.5 FIP guy with very high FB velocity for a LH SP. That's at least a #3 SP. Thus, the gamble: Luzardo could be a total steal for us or he could crash and burn with a repeat, or worse, of last season. This is the sort of gamble that the presently-constructed Phillies needed to make to be strong WS, or even NL East champion, contenders in 2025.

[allentown]

In the meantime, Tyler Gilbert DFA'ed to make room for Luzardo.

He's entering age 31 season and hasn't pitched well. They had many choices of guys to remove from 40-man and chose Tyler.

[zambonir]

I think you are making that gamble on every pitcher, always, with both injuries and fluctuating performance. Ranger could just as easily have a 2024 like Luzardo's 2023, though obviously the Phillies didn't have to trade anything for him. Walker actually earned his salary in 2023 and then his 2024 happened. Something could go wrong with Sanchez and non-tendering him wouldn't be an option.

Gilbert might well get traded off the waiver wire, albeit for cash. He too can refuse his assignment, not due to service time like Taijuan, and also he has no guaranteed $, but he's been outrighted before.

[bkeich]

This guy is more of a #6/#7 starter on a good team. I am confused.

If he continues to pitch like this he will be non tendered after this season due to his increasing cost. Goid news is that maybe this means we aren’t even going to bother with Walker.

That is certainly quite possible, which is why this trade is a gamble. If he is healthy, he is much more than a #6/7 pitcher on a good team. Last year was a bad year for him, probably health related. If we look at his two prior years, he is a 3.5 FIP guy with very high FB velocity for a LH SP. That's at least a #3 SP. Thus, the gamble: Luzardo could be a total steal for us or he could crash and burn with a repeat, or worse, of last season. This is the sort of gamble that the presently-constructed Phillies needed to make to be strong WS, or even NL East champion, contenders in 2025.

I just wish he showed more for the price. Even when he was good (2 seasons), he missed time. If we are aiming to get 20 starts of 3.50-4.00 era than I think we MAY have gotten it. The problem is, that isn’t really worth Caba.

[zambonir]

Ranger had a 5.62 ERA in eight second-half starts last year while providing only 36.2 innings. Luzardo had a 5.00 in 12 first-half starts and 66.2 innings. The only difference is Ranger was great and healthy in the first half whereas Luzardo was already hurt in April and shut down by June. But they were comparable guys in '22 and '23.

I think 20 starts of 3.50-4.00 ERA is still worth a heck of lot. Especially if you think a 5th starter (or 4th playoff starter) is important. I still don't know that I do, but we saw what the worse-case could be with that last year.

[bkeich]

…

I think 20 starts of 3.50-4.00 ERA is still worth a heck of lot. Especially if you think a 5th starter (or 4th playoff starter) is important. I still don't know that I do, but we saw what the worse-case could be with that last year.

The question really is the chance of that (signs that he can do it, signs he can’t) worth our #6 prospect. Especially since he won’t be cheap in those 2 arbitration years after this.

I just see too much bad in his history, equal numbers of bad and good seasons. Seems like if this is what we wanted it must have been available in free agency.

[DougLindsay]

He was 8th in fWar for NL SP in '23. Great deal if he's healthy.

[zambonir]

The question really is the chance of that (signs that he can do it, signs he can’t) worth our #6 prospect. Especially since he won’t be cheap in those 2 arbitration years after this.

Only one arbitration year after this one. If he pitches well for us he'll get $10 million and be an insane bargain. If he's just okay he'll still be worth the $8 million.

It clearly wasn't available in free agency. You'd be paying someone Taijuan money.

[Callison]

IMHO, Ranger to the pen makes some sense because the Phis' pen needs improvement. Ranger was dominant the first half then never the same last season. Suggests he's not strong enough to last the whole season as a starter. So if he's dominant pitching less, put him in the pen. He could close after 6. Might be really good for Ranger and the team.

[zambonir]

So Ranger to the pen and Walker back to the rotation?

Ranger's either gonna start or get traded, and no, neither he nor Scott Boras would be on board with a bullpen move even if it was a good idea.

They'll still add another arm for the pen, no reason not to now that the threshold is pretty much a done deal. Just a question of whether it's a $4 million type guy or if they are willing to pay double (plus 10%) for something bigger. Won't be anyone worthy of a multi-year deal though IMO.