Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[zambonir]

I think it's a good line-up still. Only question is if Wilson is the guy and if it's okay to not have a LHB on the bench (though obviously Marsh will always be available when Rojas plays). Clemens either makes the team or goes on waivers.

But, there's still three months from Dombrowski to do something else, you never know.

[bkox]

In 6 career games at CBP, Kepler has hit 4HR. Means we should expect 54HRs over 81 games at home this season.................

[MichaelJackSchmidt]

Okay. Fair enough. His first grade is his appearance to class. I'm giving him a D. The mid term is at the All-Star break, and the final exam is when the Postseason is over for the Phillies.

[allentown]

n 6 career games at CBP, Kepler has hit 4HR. Means we should expect 54HRs over 81 games at home this season...............

Works for me.

[allentown]

And then because Thomson stuck with him and he worked hard every day (nobody debates that including on his fielding) and went through the growing pains of adjusting his approach he wound up with an .832 OPS the rest of the season and a 129 WRC+ that put him in the top 1/4 of all qualified hitters in MLB (34 of 143). I believe he also led the Phillies in game-winning hits (or maybe it was walk-offs) and he was still third in RBIs and 4th in home runs for the season. Great managing.

You forgot the /s.
Playing a horrible-defense guy every game for the first 96 games of the season to an OPS of .680 over that time to be rewarded with 66 games of .832 OPS! What a manager! Still only a .738 OPS and 105 OPS+ for the season. And it's not like his bad start to the year was a great fluke. The 105 OPS+ is pretty much identical to the 106 OPS+ for his whole 3 years in Philly over a large statistical sample of 1888 PA, Not a plus from an offense-only RF.

[zambonir]

It wasn't the first 96 games, it was 58 before he started producing at an elite level for 104, but he was already making progress just after April (.706 OPS in May).

And it's not like the Phillies would have had a better line-up any day that Nick had sat. Rojas was already playing (and playing mediocre defense in addition to not hitting at the time), Pache is just a mirror image of Nick (bat so bad his defense doesn't justify playing him) and Merrifield was also worse.

Obviously I am joking about it being brilliant managing, but it is the managing style that has worked for Rob Thomson, the winningest manager (by %) in Phillies history). Nick wasn't demanding he play 162 games, it was something Thomson said to several guys as a motivational play, and then it took on a life of its own - and by the time he might have needed a rest, he was thriving, and all of the other big bats were hurt at various times. People always say a slumping guy needs to sit to "clear his head" or for punishment but there's no empirical evidence that works better than playing through it.

[Pat_Burrell]

Phills acquire Jesus Lazardo from Marlins for Caba and Boyd https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/phillies-to-acquire-jesus-luzardo.html

[zambonir]

Well I guess we better hold off on those grades

[andyb]

This is a pretty big swing. 2 years of control. Arbitration estimate of $6 million is relatively low because of the lost season last year. Of course he has been less healthy than Ranger (one full season of 170+ innings, no other season close).

Great stuff. Left-handed. Would love to see how Cotham refines his game. I always thought we could trade a second tier prospect like Caba for something. Was just expecting more on the offensive end.

This does get one wondering as to whether they want to move Ranger for prospects and a little salary relief. Or they are just tripling down on the rotation and hoping that minimizes the need for a deeper bullpen.

We also get some catching depth back. Paul McIntosh. Will be 27 and mostly AA last year. Insurance if we keep Stubbs and lose Marchan (or even just the need for another competent upper minors emergency catcher).

Phillies acquire lefty Jesús Luzardo in trade with Marlins: Sources

[zambonir]

This does get one wondering as to whether they want to move Ranger for prospects and a little salary relief. Or they are just tripling down on the rotation and hoping that minimizes the need for a deeper bullpen.

Seems like also they were still determined to add pitching all along and maybe that's why they could settle for Kepler as the sole offensive addition. I would just roll with these five guys, if everyone stays healthy and Painter is ready to go then you could trade Ranger for prospects or deadline help or a little of both.

[allentown]

It's a gamble, but a very reasonable one which could pay off huge. To reduce the danger of the gamble, they need to keep Suarez until they are sure that Luzardo is healthy. I hate to lose Caba, but Luzardo is the sort of guy they needed to trade for.

[zambonir]

Seems like this could ultimately lead to Walker being DFAed too.

[Austinfan]

Caba is a loss, though there was always a question whether he'd get strong enough to be a plus hitter, he's still a good bet to be a ML starter with elite fielding.

This may be a vote of confidence in Rincon, who is also a plus fielder, with a more projectable body but more questions about his hit tool.

Boyd has talent, but they just drafted a bunch of athletic OFs with CF speed. So he was expendable.

[Austinfan]

Can they send Walker to Lehigh?
Given his contract, no one will claim him,and they could work on him and try to salvage him.

[phillychuck]

Hate this trade. Very young promising SS for an oft-injured starting pitcher who three teams have traded away in five years. Reportedly still not completely healthy. Has he passed the physical for the Phils?

His advanced stats are mediocre, too, with 4-ish xERA and xFIP. He has a high HR rate and his K-rate fell dramatically last season. Jut the kind of player who a good team would not acquire based on analytics.

I'm rapidly losing confidence in DD based on Hays, Merrifield, and other recent acquisitions, including this guy.

[bkeich]

Yea, Caba was more valuable than this. This is the kind of guy you can get as a FA, 27 years old, league average pitcher coming off his worst season who doesn’t seem to have good peripherals. He may have been non-tendered, but was not.

Caba has potential. This guy is more of a #6/#7 starter on a good team. I am confused.

If he continues to pitch like this he will be non tendered after this season due to his increasing cost. Goid news is that maybe this means we aren’t even going to bother with Walker.

[Jazzhead]

Agree completely. Caba has the potential to be a good MLB shortstop, but Luzardo can be a rotation anchor and, with 2 years of team control, we have plenty of time to determine his worth. He'll effectively cost Middleton double his arbitration award because of the luxury tax, but the payoff could be huge. Well done, DD!

As for Ranger, if Luzardo is healthy coming out of spring training, would it make sense to move him back to the pen, where he could even be good enough to close? The pen would be too lefty-heavy, perhaps, and Ranger (or his agent) may object that a move to the pen diminishes his potential value in free agency. But I think he could be terrific there, and ultimately more valuable to us than a fifth starter.

[allentown]

I think of Suarez as a #3 SP from a general MLB standpoint, even though for the Phillies he may well have to be the #5 SP -- the rotation is now potentially that good. He might well have more value to the Phillies out of the pen, but that may also reduce his general value to other MLB teams, unless he can be a plus closer.

The Phillies have had bullpen problems, but the pen's saving grace has been the number of IP by the starting rotation.. I think the team needs to make more use of the guys in the pen who get little use. Ranger gave us 150 IP last season. It is a plus not to have to roll out a Walker-2024-type guy as the 5th SP. A plus to not have a guy whose position in the rotation you skip whenever possible. If he is on his way to a #3 quality 150 IP, then Ranger will have a ton of trade deadline value to fix whatever major hole the team has. That may be his greatest value in 2025. If Painter is ready quicker and the rotation is holding up, he could be traded earlier.

[andyb]

Can they send Walker to Lehigh?
Given his contract, no one will claim him,and they could work on him and try to salvage him.

Of course they can and that is most likely the plan. Walker could refuse the assignment to Lehigh Valley and become a free agent, but that would cost him $36 million. Agree that this does at least give them the chance to salvage him. Maybe his velocity would play up in relief too if they wanted to fashion him into a 2-inning middle reliever.

[phillychuck]

I don't think Luzardo is worth the #4 prospect in a decent system, which is what Caba is ranked (by Matt, anyway). From last year's performance he is an injured, failing #5 starter at best. You sign those guys for zero cost other than a small contract.