Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[zambonir]

The time off actually made JT a better hitter, though I'm sure the real reason is simply that he was playing hurt and then he wasn't. Still wound up 109 OPS+ for the season (103 first half 120 second half).

Back-up catchers can't hit. Or if they can, they aren't great catchers. That's why they are back-ups. Most teams go with more the 50-50 model these days anyway (which usually means one is a better hitter and one is better behind the dish).

Someone like Marchan is the best case, where he might eventually round into something more if he can stay healthy. Phillies have a perfect set-up this year, where Stubbs has experience and is more than adequate but can also be stashed at AAA if they're really ready to do that. It's hard to tell right now if they are just stockpiling spring training and minor league depth or if they are expecting to make a trade - of Marchan if they have to, since he can't be optioned and they may still value Stubbs' experience with the pitching staff, or of Stubbs simply because he'll have modest trade value. But there's no free agent back-up catcher upgrade needed or even, probably, available.

[Austinfan]

They always stockpile veteran catchers in AAA and AA ball to catch young pitching prospects.
Developing pitchers is more important than the marginal contribution a better hitter but worse catcher could provide.

[phillychuck]

They have to find the next O'Hoppe on the trade market...

The return for O'Hoppe seemed fair at the time, and Marsh has been worth more to the Phils than O'Hoppe would have been, but there is a giant catching prospect hole between JT and Tait right now unless Dissin improves pretty substantially, or Marchan stays healthy (which he hasn't been able to do).

[Dirk41]

Not a perfect fit with no where to play without another move, but could we get Westberg from the Orioles for Ranger?

They need a top of the rotation arm and may be willing to overpay. They will certainly be in the market for Ranger next year.

[Austinfan]

I'd think DD will wait until July and see how Painter looks, whether the pitchers in Lehigh are progressing, etc. before he things about moving Ranger.

[phillychuck]

I don';t think the O's are moving Westberg for Suarez under any circumstances... Westberg's power potential is too high.

[zambonir]

They always stockpile veteran catchers in AAA and AA ball to catch young pitching prospects.

For sure and you can always carry three catchers at AAA (especially if they can hit a little or play other positions). Or send one to AA. But none of Stubbs, McIntosh and Henry should really be in Reading.

[fish]

They have to find the next O'Hoppe on the trade market...

Here he is (though I suppose you wanted mlb ready)
https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/royals/carter-jensen-695600

[allentown]

We won't need a catcher until 2026 and he should be MLB ready then.

[phillychuck]

I'd take Mitchell or Jensen in a trade. They won't need both of them.

[David_Criss]

Jensen and Dairon Blanco would be a good haul from Kansas City for ........ Castellanos maybe. Leaves Kepler in leftfield, saves some payroll while KC gets the "bat" it needs. Phillies would have to send a prospect or two, too.

Blanco and Marsh in left and Jt's replacement in the fold......

[zambonir]

Yes, a prospect or two, like MIller and Painter.

[saycheese]

Love Jordan Dissin, great kid, great family. Local kid to.
He himself will tell you he has to improve his hitting. He made some strides this year but he has a long way to go to be a MLB starting caliber catcher. Now he is only 22 yrd old. Getting to Double A last year at the end and going to the fall league will do nothing but help. This year is a big one for him. He has a good eye at the plate. His contact was better this year. Hitting 9 home runs at JS was a step in the right direction.

Marchan is now 25. Injuries have slowed him. However his last two seasons are interesting. Played really well in the minors in 2023, not so good in the majors. 2024 played really good in the majors and not so good in the minors. He should be the backup to JT this year. He is a better defensive catcher and hitter than Stubbs.

Caleb Ricketts is an interesting one. No one talks about him much anymore but most of the services have him ranked anywhere from 20-24 in our system. Not a good year in AA. After a solid 2023. AA is a big time adjustment for players. His issue is he is 24yrs old and seems to have been past in the orgs eyes by guys like Dissin.

Overall though we don't have an hier apparent to JT. That is ok, we can figure that out in2026. Chicago has two of the best catching prospects in baseball in Quero and Teel. Both are in AAA. If you want to look for a prospect for prospect trade that is where to go. Yes folks Painter and Miller are untouchable. So maybe they can't get anything done there.

[andyb]

I'd say we have a potential heir apparent in Tait. He is just so young and has so much risk in his profile that it is tough to pencil him in right now. And the bat is good enough that he may be shifted elsewhere at some point if the defense does not develop. But he is pretty close to being a top 100 prospect now and could be by midseason with a good start.

[fish]

I'd say we have a potential heir apparent in Tait. He is just so young and has so much risk in his profile that it is tough to pencil him in right now.

But even if he continues a meteoric rise and gets to the big leagues by the time he's 20, he'd still need to be broken in part time to learn how to be a big league catcher and how to handle the pitching staff. So essentially, he could be the heir apparent for 2030 - time enough to cycle through an entirely different catcher.

[andyb]

Everybody seems to be talking younger heirs to JT. I am fine keeping JT for a few more years while Tait develops as long as he has a decent year this year. A 3-year deal is probably going to be needed, but if Tait develops while JT is still a good catcher it is a nice problem to have.

Bottom line is I don't think we need to go get a catcher and everyone keeps throwing around names that will cost multiple prospects. We have another year to see how this plays out, but I do not want to see us go get a catcher unless JT gets hurt or falls off precipitously.

And BTW I do NOT see Tait as not being starter quality until 2030. More like 2027 or 2028. He is going to move relatively quickly because of his talent and performance. The defense may take a little longer, but a year sharing the job with JT could be the finishing school he needs.

[Austinfan]

If Tait is the real thing, he'll start in Clearwater and end 2025 in JS.
2026 he'll end in Reading/Lehigh.
2027 he'll be knocking on the door.

[julio]

And BTW I do NOT see Tait as not being starter quality until 2030. More like 2027 or 2028.

If Tait is the real thing, he'll start in Clearwater and end 2025 in JS.
2026 he'll end in Reading/Lehigh.
2027 he'll be knocking on the door.

Let us note that andyb and Austinfan have agreed.

[andyb]

Let us note that andyb and Austinfan have agreed.

Not completely....

We agree on Tait's ceiling. I really see only Miller and Tait as potential above average regulars in our system. There is also no reason to think it will take 5 years for him to be a starter assuming we are right about that talent level.

We disagree on JT. He was a 3 WAR catcher last season while missing a big chunk of the season. Assuming he repeats that when healthy in 2025, I want to resign him and am willing to overpay a bit. A 3-year deal is almost perfect. We need JT for 2026 and almost 2027. If Tait has the job in 2028 JT can be a backup/DH or be moved for salary savings.

I am not holding roster positions open for guys like Kemp and Rincones who have not shown they are major league players yet (though I am fine with Wilson being the RH backup for Kepler). We just don't have many high end offensive prospects beyond Miller and Tait. I am counting on Miller and more 50-50 hoping on Tait. I liked Tait more than Caba for instance because of his higher ceiling (Caba's defense almost certainly gives him a higher floor than Tait).

[rpmcmurphy]

I have to confess that until I watched some video on Tait the other day, whenever I read his name I was mentally pronouncing it “Tate”. Found out that it is “Tah-eet”, with the accent on the second syllable.