Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[andyb]

He's mainly a D asset. In 530 AB over 2 seasons, he's put up 3.2 WAR.

But he had a first time around the league affect that is mostly responsible for that WAR. The recent experience (2024) was of him regressing after the league figured out how to pitch him. And he was not really that unlucky. 297 BABIP is a tiny bit low for a speed player, but much of that was due to weak contact. And the 400+ BABIP from 2023 was the real outlier.

Forget the stats though. The player was overmatched at the plate most of the year and the Phillies saw that with the eye test. They held him out against better competition in the second half of the year and almost always had to pinch hit for him in late innings. His lack of offense was one of the factors for their second half struggles and postseason failures.

They simply were not going to run it back assuming Rojas was close to a full time player.

[andyb]

Kepler career OPS splits: 778 vs RHP, 665 vs LHP.

He's probably a platoon player (and that is OK because Wilson could be an 800 OPS player against LHP in extended playing time).

[andyb]

It would absolutely make sense for Rojas to get 300 ABs in a half-season of AAA instead of 100 in MLB, but who's the second CF/top defensive sub if that's the case.

Probably a cheap minor league AAAA player yet to be named. A creative organization might ask Turner to be that player and start in CF against LHP with Sosa in the lineup at SS. This means hoping Marsh or Stott improves against LHP also.

[zambonir]

Well, you are right, the exact number fluctuates. But 86 did it in the AL. And last year was the first year the team with the highest payroll and the best record actually got to and won the World Series (in the current format).

I think every team should only need to be in a position to get in each year. First-round byes and home field are nice (especially for us ticket buyers) but they still don't guarantee anything.

If Nick and Turner and Walker were mistakes why would we want them to make the same ones again? At least the smaller short-term moves can be fixed. And I'd rather see the team as currently constituted go wrong and fall short of the playoffs then see them do it if they'd first signed a $30 million OF or $15 million closer.

At the end of the day, this team still rises and falls with both its high-paid veterans and its still-unfinished-product 20somethings. And mostly, with the pitching.

[Austinfan]

It's a strategy if you think you need to gut through 2025 and the kids will start arriving in 2026.
Miller makes Bohm expendable, Crawford fills an OF spot, Painter takes a top 4 slot, another young pitcher might be ready for #5 (4.50 FIP is fine there).
Tait and Caba could be up by 2027 (if they're top prospects) or 2028.

[Austinfan]

I'd also watch how they use Kemp in AAA.
Since Miller is probably a lock at 3B, I'd expect them to develop him as a "supersub," 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, RF.

[saycheese]

The way Mattingly talked about Kemp I would not be surprised if he has a chance to make this team over Westin Wilson right out of spring training. If that is the way they want to go I am fine with that. We do have players on the rise and good players like Miller, Crawford, Painter. The next rung guys like Johnson, Abel, Chace, Marchan, Rincones, . Even some guys like Wen-Hui Pan could get her sometime next year (he would need a Kerkering type rise but has the stuff for it).

[andyb]

Utility guys are pretty meaningless in the larger picture though. Kemp is not somebody the Phillies are counting on for anything. Every organization has a few guys like that where they hope they can grow into cheap niche roles.

Kemp (and pretty much everyone else at AAA) is just a non factor in this organization's long term thinking for major roles. And certainly they are not counting on much for 2025. We hope guys like Abel and Rincones develop. We are just not counting or planning on any of that.

[Aquapong]

Nevermidn

[andyb]

The way Mattingly talked about Kemp I would not be surprised if he has a chance to make this team over Westin Wilson right out of spring training.

I would be shocked if that happened. Wilson is far better and Kemp has only had about 2 weeks of AAA anyway. Wilson has more power and speed and defensive ability (he can play SS in a pinch) along with the upper level experience. And he is on the 40 so keeping him means losing nobody else.

Kemp is a nice story and has certainly improved. It is Mattingly's job in part to talk up his prospects though. Kemp just has not delivered the types of 30-30 seasons in AAA that Wilson has. Mattingly would talk glowingly about Wilson too.

[Matt_Winkelman]

Pan had Tommy John this fall and will miss all of the 2025 season.

[saycheese]

Missed that, good catch. Darn good arm. Saw him pitch several times.

[zambonir]

Matt on the signing and the off-season in general

Max Kepler Represents a Pivot to a Different Offseason Plan

And

The #Phillies haven’t been invited to make a presentation to Roki Sasaki. At this point in the offseason, and with other teams scheduled for a first meeting with him, Dave Dombrowski doesn’t expect that they will be in the Sasaki sweepstakes.

— Scott Lauber ( @ScottLauber ) December 20, 2024

Yanks, Mets, Cubs all confirmed, Dodgers and Padres presumably inevitable.

[zambonir]

Record 9 MLB teams docked $311M in luxury tax

[Austinfan]

Phillies are where you'd expect them to be, the second tier.
They're not going to match the NY teams or LA.

[allentown]

But he had a first time around the league affect that is mostly responsible for that WAR. The recent experience (2024) was of him regressing after the league figured out how to pitch him. And he was not really that unlucky. 297 BABIP is a tiny bit low for a speed player, but much of that was due to weak contact. And the 400+ BABIP from 2023 was the real outlier.

I don't think we should forget the stats, if we want to do fair comparisons, rather than just arguing for the guys we like and don't like (and by don't like, I don't mean bad character, bad teammate, or generally unlikeable. I take your definition: guys who help or hurt winning). And I think the Phillies concept of having to "pay your dues" and bending over backwards for vets does play a role. In the allocation of OF playing time, Castellanos has been played way too much, to the detriment of winning, because he's a vet who wants to play every possible AB. He's just about the worst defensive OF in baseball, among those who play fairly regularly in OF. His offense isn't all that good, not nearly good enough to justify him spending so much time in OF. He has been allowed to log 1888 PA for the Phillies and contributed only 2.4 WAR over his 3 years in town. His composite OPS+ over that time is only 105, not nearly enough to justify the awful D or to be allowed to play every day through multi-month slumps. He is basically just a nidge above replacement level and what we expect to be the best 3 seasons of his 5 year contract are past. I concede that Rojas didn't have a good offensive year last season but he put up more WAR in two seasons as a part-time player than Castellanos did in 3 full-time seasons. The guy who needs to get significantly less playing time in 2025 if the Phillies are to maximize their chance of winning is Castellanos. Rojas put up virtually the same WAR (0.7 vs 0.8) as Castellanos, playing only 1/4 the time. Marsh put up about 4 times the WAR that Castellanos did last season with 2/3 as much playing time. He should play more next season.

I think we are strongest next season with Kepler getting to play most of our games in RF, Marsh most of the games in LF, and Rojas the majority of games in CF. Btw, in addition to being a better fielder and baserunner, Marsh had a slightly higher OPS+ than Castellanos did last season. Castellanos can be a starter against LHP and PH and fill-in when other OF/DH are injured/need rest. That's his best use on the team and he can be a positive contributor in that role. That's what he's earned, based upon his 3 years in Philly. I don't expect to see an upturn in his performance in 2025. As a full-time starter, he'll be a drag on the team.

[zambonir]

Funny, the way I see Castellanos's season is that Thomson believed letting him battle through it and adjust was the best thing for his game, and that approach was entirely vindicated when he was rewarded with an elite offensive OF from June 1 on (129 WRC+). Nick was the Phillies best offensive OF and third-best hitter (even over Turner and easily over Bohm) from that point. He was also quite consistent from month to month after April and May.

Whereas Marsh, whom I quite like, had just a .703 OPS in the second half (.781 in the first) and would actually lose value/have a lower WAR if he played more/faced more LHP. IMO. He was unplayable against them last year (.552 OPS). It's a tough thing because he'll never get better if he doesn't face them more, but then you are taking away ABs from Rojas or Wilson, not Nick, who should always face lefties.

I don't know if Nick can avoid another slump or be that good again one year older, but I don't know that about Bohm either (including whether he'll really grade out as well defensively again). I don't necessarily agree with the Phillies preference to move Marsh out of LF (which is a done deal now it seems) or limit Rojas's play as extremely as they have but this offense still needs Castellanos.

What's ironic is offense from the OF is down all over the league, which reflects really well on everyone. Marsh and Nick are both more productive at the plate than their detractors think, and Rojas's lack of offense isn't as big a deal given his defense.

[Jazzhead]

He is basically just a nidge above replacement level and what we expect to be the best 3 seasons of his 5 year contract are past. I concede that Rojas didn't have a good offensive year last season but he put up more WAR in two seasons as a part-time player than Castellanos did in 3 full-time seasons.

That's interesting, because 100 RBIs are valuable, even if his WAR is impacted by his weak defense. And by weak defense I mean his inability to cover ground, because he does not fail to catch the balls he gets to. But isn't his defensive inadequacy addressed simply by having Rojas and his superior range playing beside him?

[allentown]

First, I agree that much of his defensive inadequacy is covered by Rojas in CF, but the discussion above has Rojas in AAA.
Second, 100 RBI would be very nice, but Casty only had 86. His overall O is measured by an OPS+ of 106. That's not a good OPS+ for a corner OF. Bohm had 97 rbi and OPS+ of 116, Schwarber had 104 RBI and OPS+ of 137. Harper had 87 rbi and OPS+ of 149. Turner had only 55 rbi but OPS+ of 114. Marsh had 60 rbi in 2/3 the ABs of Casty and an OPS of 109. Realmuto also had an OPS+ of 109 and 60 rbi in slightly more than half the ABs Casty had.

If we take OPS+ as the best measure of offense, then Casty was only better than Stott and Rojas last season. The whole season counts.

Again, 3 full seasons in Philly. Combined OPS+ of 105. The stats don't lie. Castellanos is far from the offensive juggernaut many posters are trying to portray him as. Yes, he has periods when he is hot. Also prolonged periods when he's ice cold. The full body of his output in Philly is inadequate for a poor-fielding corner OF. By objective measure, RF is where we have a crying need for improvement and we've just signed a more productive guy who has played Rf, and played it well. Kepler has played at least parts of 10 MLB seasons. He has never played LF in the majors. I think it foolish to move him to LF in favor of Castellanos. Kepler is the better player.

[Florida_Sunshine]

I am wondering if the reason for the Phillies keeping the team pretty much intact and avoiding taking on additional salary is because they are reworking Harper's contract.