Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[andyb]

I just can't get JoJo Romero out of my mind after all of these years

And the more recent Romero closer (Seth) is a bad guy we should not want in our clubhouse.

[andyb]

What am I missing here. If he were right handed I could at least see the rationale. But what the point of a left handed platoon corner OF?

I like this. We need left-handed more than right-handed and DD has finally realized this. We were playing Hays last year against right-handed pitching because we did not have the extra left-handed bat. The version of this team now probably has Marsh in CF against right-handed pitching and we still have Rojas and Wilson around for the lefties.

All the talk about Rojas really avoids the fact that he needs at least a half season in AAA. He has had half a week so far. If he makes the team and earns more playing time that is a good problem to have. Kepler is a good candidate for a bounce back season after playing hurt a bit. Not too old. Pretty good athlete. 1-year deal has little risk.

[andyb]

Here is what I don't get. Kepler is not a 10 million dollar player. Not at his age, not his production. He best productive year was 2019.

Why not? His WAR over the past 4 years has been 2.1, 2.1, 2.9, 1.0. Injuries affected last year (and a little bit every year). Like it or not we are in a world where WAR is worth at least $10 million. We should not use formulas used to compose a $150 million team salary when most clubs are over $200 million these days.

Is Kepler great? No. But he has been solid defensively and can play the long part of a platoon with a little upside (i.e. if he is healthy and gives us 2.0 WAR in 125 games then we just got a great deal).

Like it of not, this team does not believe in Rojas' bat yet or that Weston Wilson or any minor leaguers are ready for major league playing time in large measures.

[VoteForKalas]

The point is this proviides more evidence that currently the Philliies can only add talent or fill holes with short term bandaids.

Until they make more significant change to fix the team issues, we're mostly in limbo until 2026 when some of the bloated salary mistakes they made are done.

[andyb]

Until they make more significant change to fix the team issues, we're mostly in limbo until 2026 when some of the bloated salary mistakes they made are done.

If we had an overflowing farm system things would be different. But we don't.

We also should not blame salary mistakes on their current situation. The biggest change this offseason is Zach Wheeler now counts for $42 million on the competitive balance tax calculation. Harper and Nola combine for another $50 million.

It is mostly good deals that account for our high salary. One can argue about Casty and that Turner is a little overpaid now (but the back end of that contract is more the issue than the front end), but our batting average on these large contracts is pretty darn good.

If the goal is to win now and protect our limited assets in the minors - then we should be doing exactly what DD is doing. Going into the luxury tax tiers to fill holes without adding free agents that need compensation. The cost of Kepler and Romano is really only money if we are less concerned about big ticket free agents.

[andyb]

Cots contracts has us at $292 million now filling all the remaining spots with minimum salary guys and arbitration projections. Still a tiny bit of room to operate below the $301 million threshold

MLB Philadelphia 25

Kepler probably ensures our draft pick will move back 10 spots because that is the $281 million threshold. Romano pushed us slightly past that and Kepler will make it difficult to get under. Any other penalties are only cash though. Short term deals will not affect the future either. This is not our money. It is Middleton's money.

[biggsphils]

What are they doing, this signing makes no sense, To go over the 3 tier salary spot for another career .237 LH outfielder. Is 10 mil. a year the going rate now for a part time platoon player ? or is there another trade bin the works involving Marsh or possible salary dump or isn't $$$ not an issue ?

[UnsaltySailor]

Send $20 mil with Casty to a team desperate for offense and an open DH slot - accept a marginal prospect in return just so it appears the Phillies didn't end up empty handed. Take the $10 mil a year savings and sign/trade-for a RH OF. Leave Kepler in RF where he is an above average defender. Phillies would still have a top 10 lineup. They need to get better on defense.

[VoteForKalas]

I agree a good farm system would make it different, but DD knew that was not reality going in and still brought us to this point.

Casty, Turner and Walker are all overpays. Our core is 30 or older and are starting to decline. Our younger players have mostly stagnated on their development. His trade deadline pickups have been mostly mediocre.

Did he hope he would find a way around it? Did he hope the team would win the ring before now? As we know, hope is not a strategy. Patch and hold your breath until 2026 seems to be an even more flawed strategy.

[andyb]

Casty, Turner and Walker are all overpays.

Turner has delivered 6.4 WAR the past 2 seasons. AAV is about $55 million combined. $8.6 million per WAR is not an overpay. Turner is not the problem today. He might be in a few years but not today.

No argument on the other two and the fact that the team will start to age. We just don't have the minor league talent to execute any other basic strategy and stay competitive. DD knew it was a mediocre farm system when he took the job. And while improved the system is still middle of the pack at best on his watch. He is just doing what he has to do to have a shot at winning now. If you want to have a younger and less expensive team you need to trade for guys like Crochet. We just did not have the talent (or desire because it might mean trading Painter or Miller) to do that.

[allentown]

All the talk about Rojas really avoids the fact that he needs at least a half season in AAA.

Nonsense. How would half a season in AAA help him? He may have been brought up too quickly, but he has had his AAA in MLB. Nothing AAA can teach him at this point. This sounds like the old Phillies' "hasn't paid his dues" philosophy. Either he can earn his keep in MLB or he can't.

[bkeich]

All the talk about Rojas really avoids the fact that he needs at least a half season in AAA.

Nonsense. How would half a season in AAA help him? He may have been brought up too quickly, but he has had his AAA in MLB. Nothing AAA can teach him at this point. This sounds like the old Phillies' "hasn't paid his dues" philosophy. Either he can earn his keep in MLB or he can't.

Well, he has learned at the ML Level, but my guess is that he is now a part time player / bench player/ defensive replacement. It might be better to send him to AAA and let him hit everyday, maybe we will see improvement.

[allentown]

Is 10 mil. a year the going rate now for a part time platoon player ? or is there another trade bin the works involving Marsh or possible salary dump or isn't $$$ not an issue ?

Unfortunately, I think the obvious reality is that the Phillies see him as a nearly full-time corner OF.

[andyb]

Needing some time in AAA is about Rojas needing to get better. A 601 OPS just does not cut it on a team that wants to go to the World Series. This is not about paying his dues. It is about winning.

[zambonir]

I still don't see Casty as a big deal. It was a flawed signing but the 2023 team might not have made it to the NLCS without him even as he was also part of the problem in that series. He was also the big bat in the one Mets win and a great offensive player from June 1 on.

The team won 95 games despite Merrifield and Walker and injuries to Suarez and several hitters. That is built in to the aging core but I think this franchise is in far better shape than the 2011 team precisely because of Dombrowskis approach.

[allentown]

but DD knew that was not reality going in and still brought us to this point.

I think Painter's TJ messed up a lot of Phillies thinking. Absent that, he's likely a #2 quality SP in our lineup this season and a #3 last season.

[allentown]

A 601 OPS just does not cut it on a team that wants to go to the World Series.

He's mainly a D asset. In 530 AB over 2 seasons, he's put up 3.2 WAR. That rate makes him more valuable than a lot of guys on the team and a league above Casty. If one believes in the 3-true-outcomes, then he was BABIP unlucky last year as his K- and BB-rates improved slightly. His HR- and X-base rates were down significantly.

[Jazzhead]

Needing some time in AAA is about Rojas needing to get better. A 601 OPS just does not cut it on a team that wants to go to the World Series. This is not about paying his dues. It is about winning.

That option is realistically available now that Kepler has been added. Kepler plays LF more or less full-time, and Marsh plays CF more or less full-time. Kepler's range allows Marsh to be in center without diminishing the defense while Rojas learns to hit.

In a perfect world, Kepler would be in right field, not left. But as another poster pointed out, I'd rather see Kepler learn to play LF than Casty.

[zambonir]

Did he hope he would find a way around it? Did he hope the team would win the ring before now? As we know, hope is not a strategy. Patch and hold your breath until 2026 seems to be an even more flawed strategy.

I think "hope to win 87-89 games" and "hold your breath to get lucky in the post-season" actually is a strategy. I would like to see more aggression (or spending) at the deadline if it's called for. But even the Kepler move suggests they want to leave a path for Crawford to be in next year's OF (if not sooner).

It would absolutely make sense for Rojas to get 300 ABs in a half-season of AAA instead of 100 in MLB, but who's the second CF/top defensive sub if that's the case. Playing Marsh 140 times (with more starts again LHP) probably doesn't do it either.

[RolenRules]

"hope to win 87 to 89 games" should NOT be a strategy with the Phillies payroll. And 87 wins didn't get you to the 2024 NL playoffs, and 89 wasn't enough for Arizona.