Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[allentown]

Here's the other strange part: Kepler had an off-year last season but his prior 3 seasons were worthy of the contract $. But, he bats left and we wanted bats right. Now to make it even more interesting: we dumped Hays who had a bad illness/injury marred 2024, but was better 2021-2023 than Kepler, was cheaper, bats RH, is 3 years younger,and has more OF positional flexibility than Kepler, but would have cost us fewer $.

[fish]

Feels like a move a bad team makes when they are having trouble getting the players they really want to take their money…like a 2016 Phillies signing.

[Jazzhead]

The Kepler deal only makes sense if (a) the Phils plan to play him full time in left and move Marsh to center, or (b) they are planning on trading Casty.. The former may make sense, since with Kepler in left there is less need for Rojas' range in center, and Rojas can function mostly as a defensive replacement.

[RolenRules]

Well, Kepler couldn't travel to Toronto in 2022 because he hadn't been vaccinated. So, he might fit in well with known anti-vaxxers JT, Nola, Bohm, and perhaps others in the clubhouse.

[zambonir]

It does seem a bit like Merrifield 2.0 but he's younger, was hurt last year, can play all three positions and is strongest in right.

Zolecki:

But when healthy, Kepler has been productive. He posted a .770 OPS and 110 OPS+ from 2019-23 with Minnesota. He slashed .260/.332/.484 with 24 homers, 66 RBIs, an .816 OPS and a 120 OPS+ in 491 plate appearances in 2023. He had a career-high 36 homers and 90 RBIs in 2019.

The Phillies have been looking for outfield help since the end of the season, particularly after non-tendering Austin Hays in November. They’ve also been looking to create a different look to the lineup.

Much has been made about the Phillies’ lineups propensity to chase pitches out of the strike zone and swing and miss. Kepler doesn’t chase. From 2019-23, he ranks 38th out of 202 players in chase rate at 25.2 percent.

Kepler could play left field with Nick Castellanos in right and some combination of Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas in center field. But Kepler has been one of baseball’s best defenders in right field, so perhaps he stays there and Castellanos moves to left, which was the plan when the Phils signed Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber in 2022.

From 2016-24, Kepler ranked first in baseball among right fielders with 57 Outs Above Average. He ranks fourth in Defensive Runs Saved, according to FanGraphs.

https://www.mlb.com/phillies/news/max-kepler-phillies-contract

The Phillies' interest in a RHB was more because of Marsh in LF, replacing Hays and/or possibly trading Bohm (or in their dreams, Nick). They just wanted an OF and a hitter, and all the RHB FAs are expensive and bad defenders (or no less questionable than Kepler in Profar's case).

Was there news saying we are out on Sasaki?

If this does actually take them over the last threshold they shouldn't necessarily stop. Or they intend to get back under.

[zambonir]

Before the Kepler deal, FanGraphs projected the Phillies payroll next year to be $289 million, putting them over the third luxury tax threshold at $281 million.

The third tax carries a 92.5 percent penalty for every dollar spent over $281 million.

Kepler’s deal pushes the Phillies close to the fourth luxury tax threshold at $301 million.

[RolenRules]

Maybe DD isn't really as good as some of us have given him credit for. His major moves last off-season (Merrifield) and trade deadline (Hays) were hardly awe inspiring.

[zambonir]

I don't hate it. A LH platoon player who plays great defense is worth more than a RH platoon player who doesn't (i.e Kepler vs Hays). It also does open the door to reducing Nick's playing time if Rojas can play more, and makes Nick better if he can handle LF. It feels like a pivot, once their search for a bat produced no trade options and it was only unappealing higher-end FAs (most with DH quality defense). They just need to be right about him the way they weren't about those two guys. And you still have to wonder if this is it and Wilson is the last piece or if they still have more in mind.

DD's weakness was all the big contracts he gave out. If they are not going to go over the last threshold his hands are tied this year and even if they are, one-year deals best. Money comes off the books next year but the year after is when they really shed it (Casty and Walker and Bohm if he even plays his last arb year).

[zambonir]

Gelb says the Phillies plan to play him in LF. And that they will blow past the next threshold (even if it's just small moves).

Phillies add Max Kepler on 1-year-deal, but offseason picture remains incomplete

[Dirk41]

What is the point of all of these platoons if every single one can't really hit?

[bkeich]

So, an outfield of Kepler, who has 0 innings so far in LF in hs career, Castellanos, who is one of the worst defensive RF in ML history and Marsh, who has well below range for a CF

I think we need to sign some extreme ground ball pitchers. Either that or we plan to play 4 OF because Turner can’t play SS anyway so why not put him in the OF.

[saycheese]

Here is what I don't get. Kepler is not a 10 million dollar player. Not at his age, not his production. He best productive year was 2019. That was also the last year he had over 500 at bats. He isn't even an every day player. So for 10 mill dollars we are taking a chance not only can he get back to his 2 war production of 2023 but that he can switch positions and play LF?

This is was a panic move. Plain and simple. But why is the big question I have. They would have been better off spending 5 mill on Austin Hays who is younger, hits righthanded, and can play leftfield. He is a better bet to rebound offensively to his prior year than Kepler.

Gonna need to hear what Dave has to say about this but my trust in him is really starting to fade.

[zambonir]

But, that's not really true. Marsh is an excellent hitter from his strong side (better in 2023 but his total OPS+ last year was still higher than the non-platoon RF). As was Hays when healthy. As is Kepler. And Weston Wilson for that matter. It's just a question of whether this is really the right group and pieces of the puzzle.

And also, this will be the third straight player who came with a lower price and some warts whom the Phillies think can show more. Merrifield was billed as a good player and a competent LF and a guy who could hit from either side and was just a bomb in general. Hays was given too many chances to play against RHP. And now Kepler probably will be.

But, he still upgrades the defense. Moving from one corner to the other down the defensive spectrum shouldn't be an issue even if there may be a few bumps getting used to the new ball paths.

And Marsh isn't a bad CF. He's just not Rojas.

If Kepler had stayed healthy and repeated his 2023 he would have gotten a two or three-year $12-15 million AAV deal. He probably could have gotten a two-three year $8 million AAV deal now. The short-term worked for both sides, just like with Romano. But yes it's a pretty strong statement that they think he's better than Hays or they could have just paid Hays $6.8. I don't think assuming he would come back and take less money was an option, that so rarely happens.

[zambonir]

They would have been better off spending 5 mill on Austin Hays who is younger, hits righthanded, and can play leftfield.

I think you are overstating the value of righthandedness. A good LHB platoon player is worth twice as much as a good RHB platoon player simply because he plays twice as much. They should still consider bringing Hays back if his value really does sink to $5 million or lower. But what good was he without anyone else to play LF. Their first choice may have been to find a full-time CF but their second choice was obviously never to move Marsh back there.

Clearly they were not going to find a non-platoon or middle-of-the order player at an acceptable price (be that money or prospects).

[saycheese]

Yes Hays was a better option. Take the right handed ness out of it for a minute. Who is a better bet to revert back to 2023 numbers. A 29 year old or a 32 year old? I will say a 29 year old.
Kepler is a RF he has never played LF. Sure we can't hope and pray at 32 he can play LF. Why would we even put him in LF? He is better defensively than Casty in RF. So he should be the RF against right handed pitching. Who plays there against lefthanded pitching? Casty stays in LF, Rojas in CF who plays right field? Westin Wilson? The need is still there for a Right handed hitter. They accomplished nothing with this move.

This move is a panic move. I will continue to say that. They couldn't get anything accomplished in their plan which is a real inditement on Dombrowski. This move is worse than Merrifield and we know how that turned out. It has Michael Saunders vibes to it. The difference is this isn't a bad baseball team and they shouldn't be taking risks like this.

[David_Criss]

I have to think another move is coming. Kepler is a right fielder and a darn good one. This is a very interesting move. I don't get it at all at first, but I am waiting to see what the next move is. If this is it and he is the starting left fielder, I don't get it. If he is the starting right fielder and Casty is traded or moved to left with Marsh and Rojas in center this makes more sense.

[zambonir]

I don't see how it's a panic move. It's a very conservative move. A panic move would have been to trade Crawford and Bohm for Luis Robert, or to sign Profar or Teoscar Hernandez in a way that continues to tie the team's hands.

Kepler has been a better player than Hays. Hays is younger but not young. Neither of them are great bets to be their best selves but Kepler's season was entirely about injury, whereas Hays was already having a poor season before he joined the Phillies.

I agree they should still get a RHB but that is a small need. It's also a little puzzling they don't make him the RF but would you rather watch Nick learn the position? Kepler was an elite RF most of his career, he is slowing down, but moving to LF is the second-easiest position change in baseball. Wilson's not a LF either. Heck, neither is Santander.

Alternately, this is all smoke. Telling the press Kepler is going to play LF is a sentence that silently finishes with, "but we're still trying to trade Castellanos." Or Marsh or Rojas for that matter.

The fact that they aren't a bad baseball team is why it's not a big risk. The team is good enough. Kepler might make them better. And if not, well, they won at a faster pace than they did all year when Merrifield was actually on the team. The stars they have tied up so much money in are still the guys who have to get it done and if they can't there are more changes and money to spend in 2026 and 2027. If in the meantime they avoid trading Crawford, Miller, Painter, Tait and Abel that might not be a bad thing (though that could still happen at any time).

[allentown]

Kepler is not a 10 million dollar player.

He did have injury issues last year, but the prior 3 seasons he was a slightly better than 2 WAR player. If he can get back to that, we would be less than $5 mill per WAR which is under the going rate. It's apparently just for one year, which makes the age less of a problem. I still think Hays was probably a better fit for the Phillies but, this isn't an over-priced signing.

[saycheese]

Well thought out look at it. However, that is at a straight 10 million. We are paying for him since we are in the tax. I just feel we could have got similar production for a player who was due half the amount. They obviously are valuing his defense over everything else. Which I guess makes some sense. Also makes me think no way he is playing LF.

[Callison]

IMHO, a lot of money to "solve" a problem the Phils don't have. They're already bursting with light-hitting OFs. Agree with those observing he's a strong RF and that's where he belongs.

Would much prefer they build the pen back.