Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[zambonir]

There has been zero trade talk about Trout this off-season since the action actually began. Angels have signed four free agents, traded for Jorge Soler (and Scott Kingery!), still have Robert Stephenson signed for two more years and are making Ward available so Trout can play LF too. And even if they wanted to trade him they are not prepared to pick up the salary and/or accept the low return. Will it happen eventually? Maybe. The only way it will happen for sure is if Trout demands it. There is just as good a chance he finishes his career like Joey Votto and Miguel Cabrera did.

[allentown]

My position is not based upon how much I "like" Trout. It is based upon the fact that we need right handed power to protect Harper. Bellinger just makes us even more lopsidedly left handed in our batting order. i agree that Trout has not been on the feel much in the past few years and i am open to any. other RH hitter who can provide power between Harper and Schwarber.

It's not just that Trout is going into his age 33 season and has been missing an awful lot of time to injuries, it's this coupled with the absolute ton of money he is owed over the next 6 seasons.

[EDmuch]

Those are all good arguments against Trout. Just find me another RH outfielder.

[Callison]

Of the remaining perhaps-available OF, Bellinger is the pick of the litter. He might thrive in Philly. Rob loves righty-lefty alternating in the lineup, but Bellinger would be a good problem to have. Mighty good. The Phils' lineup could stand make-over anyway. Start by getting Bohm out of #4. Could be part of the Bellinger deal.

Unlike the Angels, the Cubs know they're rebuilding and so they should be open to offers including those asking them to pick up some salary. Ask for $14M, maybe settle for $10M. If the answer comes back 0, he's not really available. Except maybe for a team like the Giants, who are cash-heavy-talent-light. Gotta hand it to Boras again for Bellinger's contract - why would a FA look anywhere else?

Regarding the absolute ton of money Trout's contract costs AND the Angels' refusal to buy it down, the Phils need him for the next two seasons. "Need" cubed. The Phils' best players are peaking. Two seasons later, they'll likely be rebuilding. Then maybe trade him back to the Angels to retire with at WS title or two, maybe even eat some of his salary, happily knowing the team made the right move. OTOH, he could remain healthy and play out most of the 6 years in a blaze of glory. The move is risky, but I LOVE it. Can Trout be persuaded to demand a trade? Pick up the phone and turn on the charm with incentives. NOTHING TO LOSE!

Regarding the Angels' energetic moves to sign FA's and instantly rebuild, after losing Ohtani that is something they had to do to keep any fans and maybe to protect themselves. The right time to do that was before Ohtani left, but they were too busy counting their change to see that.

[rpmcmurphy]

I also remember people being upset when Rick Wise was traded for Steve Carlton.

[zambonir]

Unlike the Angels, the Cubs know they're rebuilding

The Cubs aren't rebuilding. They just traded for the best player on the market, and the one the Phillies would have done better to get (if not for the price). They also poached one of the best managers in baseball last year and made him the highest-paid guy in the game. They're just moving some parts around just like the Phillies, and trying to save a little money (also like the Phillies, but they don't spend as much).

[Austinfan]

Phillies won't be rebuilding in two years b/c DD looks like he's not interested in stripping the farm, and this is probably the deepest it's been in two decades. Might actually start producing more than one player per season.

[fish]

Phillies won't be rebuilding in two years b/c DD looks like he's not interested in stripping the farm,

But the guys in the minors now (probably) won’t be stars in 2 years. Isn’t replacing aging stars with young guys what rebuilding is? The layer of guys after the aging all stars is Sanchez/Stott/Bohm/kierkering - good, but not stars. Unless they make some moves to set this up differently, feels like there is definitely a year of retooling coming in the not too distant future.

[allentown]

Add Kerchering, Painter, Suarez

[dcsman]

Sincere questions for those in the know:

1. How much money is remaining for the Phils to spend this off-season with their current roster before hitting the next tax threshold?
2. How much money is Bohm projected to make?
3. How about the international bonus pool money for 2025? Is everyone equal? Do we know of any official/non-official deals we had for 2025?

I guess I'm just trying to figure out what is realistic for this off-season. Obviously, next year is a different ballgame but I was really hoping the Phils would not roll back the same team as last year and it looks as though it is increasingly likely that that is pretty much going to be the case.

Thanks!

[zambonir]

Suarez will be 31 if he's resigned, and all indication is he won't be. Trying to swap him for a younger cheaper pitcher is obviously one of the things they would have liked to do this year (and still could). Alternately, this idea of signing Sandoval would be a one-year bridge, but that's just as likely to be to another FA as to Abel or anyone else (assuming Painter's already in the rotation this year).

They are at a couple of big crossroads: one now (or at the deadline) in terms of not trading away any of the still-limited prospects, and then next year. There is certainly not anyone ready to replace Schwarber or JT and unfortunately there really isn't before 2028 either. By then Stott and Marsh and Wheeler will be free agents, Bohm will be a year gone (though at least they ostensibly have his replacement) and Mattingly will probably be PBO (Dombrowski's contract is through 2027). Hard for me to see a path that isn't still running it back/staying all in until then. If a rebuild or losing season happens before in 2026 or 2027 Stott, Marsh, Wheeler and even Sanchez will be trade candidates, because Harper and Turner probably aren't going anywhere.

Still don't see a reason not to go over the 4th threshold this year but it could wait 'til the deadline, or maybe can still be avoided then. But they also probably shouldn't go over the third one next year.

[saycheese]

From what I read with projected arbitration numbers the Phillies are around 287 million in payroll. Good for second in baseball. The highest tax tier is 304, where I believe the penalty is 110% of the amount over that. So looking at less than 20 million left to stay under 304. If that is there goal. I have not heard the Phillies say that. I have heard they have flexibility but they are acting like they want to stay under that.

Bohm is projected around 8 million in arbitration.

[Aquapong]

I agree that I expect a bounce back from Stott next year. It was a long 2022 and 2023, he had his first kid, etc. He just seemed unable to pull the trigger on fastballs for a lot of last season. Almost like he wasn’t seeing it or wasn’t trusting what he was seeing. Maybe he just needed to get away for a bit and reset.

Bellinger could also be due for a bounce back year. But it’s a complex trade considering his option. The Phils will want to pay a price for a once year player and the Cubs will want a return for a player with two years of control.

[zambonir]

We now know Stott was hurt as well. It's not like he was an offensive dynamo in 2023, merely returning to average production with a better approach (and some big hits) makes him far more valuable.

The team hasn't been willling to say they don't intend to exceed the threshold but every beat writer has. I think "for the right" guy is the right answer, except there's no right guy.

If you were to trade Bohm or Suarez (directly or indirectly) for either a LF or their own replacement, you theoretically have more money to play with to get the other thing. But still not a ton, and you are probably only upgrading one spot while weakening the other (I.e. you have a better LF but a Sosa-led 3B platoon).

I don't think Bellinger's option is that complicated. If he's good enough to opt out the Phillies aren't going to mind, it won't be any different than having traded for Tucker. And if he isn't, but doesn't crater, he's still worth having around (but I'd still have the Cubs pay some).

[Philsmania]

Phillies won't be rebuilding in two years b/c DD looks like he's not interested in stripping the farm, and this is probably the deepest it's been in two decades. Might actually start producing more than one player per season.

Hopefully, we'll be in a position to retool or reload in two or three years instead of having to rebuild. That's how the Yankees, Dodgers, Braves, Astros and Guardians do it.

[saycheese]

I believe Tucker is one of those players that would fit into the right player. Also you are still talking about 26.5 million for Bellinger and around 17 for Tucker in Arbitration. That almost 10 million makes a difference. Why would be pay 26.5 million or even 20 million for Bellinger to get Brandon Marsh production? Yes I know Marsh would play center and Bellinger in LF but I don't think the money even if Chicago takes on some of it plus the players to give up are worth Bellinger. Solid player but I think there will be other options out there that will fit better.

[zambonir]

I agree Tucker would be the right player if you could get him for what you might have to give up for Bellinger. It wasn't his salary that kept the Phillies from getting him. But you'd get Bellinger for less, even with the Cubs paying his salary down.

I just don't know if there actually are any better players. Brandon Marsh production is exactly what you get from the other trade possibilities or a free agent like Profar. And even if you want Santander that would be big money and more years. But you only trade for Bellinger if you think he can get back to what he did in 2023. Of course this is the kind of judgment Dombrowski is known for getting wrong when it comes to brand-name vets (Castellanos, Merrifield). Perhaps that makes him more cautious, especially when it's not just money.

[allentown]

Don't trade. Get a platoon OF to complement Marsh. Someone on our minor league roster, a noncomp FA, or someone set loose after ST by another team. One of our current bench guys could fill the role if we can't find better. We'll carry 5 OF capable guys on the 26-man, probably 1 (or two) of which can also play an IF position, so that also gives us a platoon for Rojas.

And, please, please, please don't trade Bohm. He's not going to be expensive, he's going to be below mid-price-range. Castgellanos is expensive, Bohm own't be and we won't replace his 3 WAR and 98 RBIs with anyone who isn't very expensive in $ or players or both.

[BostonRoss]

Revisiting Bohm: I think everyone agrees that he should not be replaced one for one by an older, more expensive player who is not likely to be better. That said, we should be realistic about what Bohm is. He was a 3 WAR player in 2024 but hadn't even reached 1 WAR in three previous full seasons. Part of the improvement was in hitting better (117 OPS+ compared to 107 in 2023). And part was due to improving to being replacement level defensively after three years at ~-1.5 dWAR. Given that dWAR is usually variable from year to year and that players who improve offensively often revert to average, it seems that Bohm is more likely to be a 2 WAR player than 3 WAR in 2025. He was close to the same value as Stott and Marsh in 2024, but those guys did not have unusually good years given their past performance, and they're more than a year younger. Bohm will turn 29 during the 2025 season and is no longer at an age where we would expect continued improvement.

Given that we would be selling high on Bohm, it does make sense to shop him to get value at another area of need, most likely pitching. Again, not necessarily an older expensive guy unless he is much better. Assuming Bohm is traded for something other than another third baseman, it should not be too hard to replace him with another 1-2 WAR player or combination (in-house options might even provide that).

It's also good to remember that Bohm is eligible for free agency after two more seasons. He will either not be part of the team after guys like JT, Schwarber, and Castellanos are gone, he'll be expensive himself, or he will have regressed.

[jimbomill]

I really do not see the point of Bellinger. We would have 3 lefties batting in a row, Harper, Bellinger and Schwarber.

Agree 100% on this. He'd be a fine add-on, but we'd be too susceptible to a good left-handed bullpen.