Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[zambonir]

Cody Bellinger is still only 29. He was supposedly hurt during his previous down period, and his value and talent is still considerable given fielding ability/versatility. Very different from Nick. I wouldn't want to sign him to a new deal or give up much for him, and also understand not wanting to go over the fourth threshold for him, but for the right deal (which means $ from the Cubs and a low trade price) he's intriguing, and hardly even guaranteed to put the Phillies on the hook next season.

I know it wouldn't be easy to do but if the Phillies don't want to exceed the fourth threshold wouldn't they also be better off getting under the third? I guess that's actually what they are thinking - if it all goes wrong they can do that at the deadline, and if it goes right, they can add.

I'd rather sign Bregman than trade for Trout. His contract would be shorter and cheaper (even after the Angels paid some of it down).

[UnsaltySailor]

Bellinger worries me, but I think a trade for him is a prudent move as long as, the Phillies don't give up much. It's not a move without risk, but the upside is substantial. He checks a lot of boxes. - Defensively proficient at four positions, Left handed, 2 year commitment at most, under 30.

[phillychuck]

In any event, I am willing to trade basically any prospect other than Painter, Miller and Tait.

I am surely this biggest outlier in the following respect--I have complete confidence that Crawford is going to be a 3-4 WAR regular (with all-star upside) and would not trade him for an older player who is not a flat-out star. I think Miller has way bigger holes in his game than Crawford...I think Crawford will almost certainly correct his extreme ground-ball tendencies just because of his natural athleticism and by getting good pro coaching. And he fits exactly what this team needs at the top of the order.

[saycheese]

Bellinger has two years 53 million left on his contract.. That 26.5 mill per year AAV. The Phillies are currently around 287 mill with the approximate arbitration numbers. Bellinger puts the Phililes about 10 million over the highest tax threshold which is 110%. So add another 11.10 million to his contract. That is before they add anyone else. I do think MIddleton will go over that last threshold but it would have to be for the right player. Is Bellinger the right player?

[saycheese]

Crawford solves something we have not been able to solve for year. That is CF and I do believe he is a 3-4 war player who is only 20 years old. His power is starting to come. Same with Miller. I would say right now Crawford is more advanced than Miller in my opinion. Crawford has also been in the system a year more.

[zambonir]

The Cubs have to pick up some of Bellinger's salary no matter who they trade him to. But I don't know that they'd pick up enough to keep the Phillies from going over the threshold (and if they did it would cost the Phillies in a better package).

I don't think they are going to go over, personally. They wouldn't have been so busy trying to trade Bohm (or open to trading Suarez) and wouldn't have shopped on the bargain shelf for a reliever if they weren't trying to avoid it. Even the notion of them trying to get Castellanos into a deal for Tucker, while silly on its face, says they couldn't take on Tucker's salary without shedding Nick's somehow. Granted it's still early but I think they want to trade for cheaper guys, or if they wait for the deadline it will be possible to aquire higher-salaries guys without the CBT implications (because of both pro-ration and the other team picking up $). Because no, there really isn't that right player, available in free agency or for a reasonable trade price.

[allentown]

The Cubs have to pick up some of Bellinger's salary no matter who they trade him to.

Probably not more than $10 mill, so still a problem in 2025. And a huge 2026 problem, since they won't pick up any of that. Besides, he just doesn't push the needle all that much.

[zambonir]

I disagree I think the Cubs will have to pick up money in both years. I'd say $7 million this year and $5 million next year (which is also the buyout). Maybe a little less, maybe a little more (between $10-15 total). That still doesn't get the Phillies out from under the last threshold but what does?

He moves the needle if he gets back to 2023 levels. A lot. And even if he doesn't, he makes the team better, and I like his chances of putting up more WAR and OPS+ than Bohm or Castellanos. The fact that he can play CF is also quite significant as it keeps Marsh primarily in LF, while still allowing Rojas the same platoon in CF and off the bench at other times. Versus signing or trading for some LF who is not as good a fielder or as good a hitter (if cheap), or a good hitter but less versatile OF if not.

[EDmuch]

I really do not see the point of Bellinger. We would have 3 lefties batting in a row, Harper, Bellinger and Schwarber.

[fish]

There is no one left worth going over the ~300 million threshold. Whatever happens next god willing will be equal parts creativity as hope.

For starters, I hope to see Painter and Chase make meaningful (successful) appearances next year. If you haven’t watched Chase yet, the way he throws the ball is about as close to Christian Javier as you can get.

They need more help to join the next wave, which they can get with Bohm or Ranger, I just don’t know how you replace them now.

[zambonir]

I really do not see the point of Bellinger. We would have 3 lefties batting in a row, Harper, Bellinger and Schwarber.

But why would that be the batting order?

Really, if that is a big concern, even without Bellinger, it's an argument to leave Schwarber leading off or hitting Harper 2nd. You don't want Schwarber to be right after Harper and you don't want him hitting 5th. And with Bellinger, well, he hit 3rd more than 4th last year.

I'd rather worry about finding a way to make it work with three legit 3-4-5 hitters than to only have two. The problem is, Bellinger's not a sure thing to be that (but neither are Bohm and Nick). Of course if he's merely the bat he was last year, you could just as easily hit him 6th or 7th, as is already true of Bohm and Nick (and JT). But you've still improved the OF and significantly lengthened the line-up.

I agree in the end that neither he nor anyone else is worth going over the threshold for with the added price of a trade (and that there aren't any free agents left worth doing that for either, unless you can squeeze Profar in under it). Which means they probably end up trading for Lane Thomas, bringing back Austin Hays or something similiar.

The willingness to trade Bohm and Suarez and interest in Crochet was clearly also about the money. That would have subtracted $17 million and only added $2.9 (projected) depending if they also got back another major leaguer (but if they did they wouldn't have needed to add another starter-quality FA, just a spare part. Which might also be the case now).

[EDmuch]

IN the early off season, there was talk about getting protection for Harper. I do not hink Bellinger provides that. I would rather see Trout.

[bkeich]

IN the early off season, there was talk about getting protection for Harper. I do not hink Bellinger provides that. I would rather see Trout.

Yes, but what about the other 150 games?

I just don’t see any point in even looking at Trout. He simply cannot stay on the field for enough games to make him useful. We all think it would be cool to have a guy who is a huge fan, certain HOF, but he has to produce also. He probably should never play in the field again and we already have too many of those guys (Castellanos, Schwarber). I just don’t see how Trout helps except for the PR department

[julio]

Trout. Bellinger. Etc.

Fans focus on players they're familiar with. Household names. This means older players, almost always.

An anecdote. In May of 1975 (yeah, I know; many of you weren't alive then...), the Phillies, pretty much out of the blue, traded a popular player for a relatively unknown younger player. I made a point of tuning into the local AM radio station that hosted sports talk at the time (I've forgotten which station it was!); the fans, pretty uniformly, were upset. They knew Willie Montanez; they liked Willie Montanez. He was an important part of the team. They didn't know much about this young outfielder from the Giants.

Duh.

[EDmuch]

My position is not based upon how much I "like" Trout. It is based upon the fact that we need right handed power to protect Harper. Bellinger just makes us even more lopsidedly left handed in our batting order. i agree that Trout has not been on the feel much in the past few years and i am open to any. other RH hitter who can provide power between Harper and Schwarber.

[philsphan67]

I was just talking to my brother about how that trade was not ranked as an all-timer (at least top 10) for the Phils. Maddox is about a 30 WAR player and Montanez was below zero after the trade.

https://www.mlb.com/news/10-biggest-trades-in-phillies-history-c301104222?msockid=208853a4212e6b9b23cc413d20296a74

[zambonir]

Harper seemed to do just fine hitting ahead of Bohm or Nick last year. I don't recall "protecting Harper" as being a big topic, just that they need a LF and ideally it would be someone who is also a bit more selective and consistent in their plate approach.

Now, if they trade Bohm or Nick, that creates both the need and the salary space for someone like Profar or Santander or Bregman (or Bellinger or Suzuki in trade). But still not sure that's the way to go (and they clearly aren't going to be able to trade Nick, and maybe not Bohm either).

The other thing is if Rojas is removed from the equation Schwarber could continue leading off with some pretty good hitters and decent base runners ahead of him 8-9.

[BostonRoss]

It’s a good thing they didn’t let us kids run the team in the 1970s. We’d never have traded someone who flipped his bat on the way to the plate.

[Austinfan]

Protecting hitters is a myth. And even it is wasn't, so what.
If Herper walks 120 times great, OPB > .400 is always a plus!
The key is having solid hitting through the lineup.
JT playing 110 games is a solid hitter, JT wore down playing 130+ games isn't.
Marsh against RH pitching is solid, just have to find RH bat to platoon with him.

Real key is getting Stott on track, he's a much better hitter than he showed last season.
And Castellanos avoiding a dreadful start.
Also need the bench to step up, Marchan, Sosa, Kemp?, Wilson?

[flyers19rw]

Exactly. Now we don't know if Trout is available; wants to leave SoCal; would want to be a Phillies. Still, Trout might be available for the right combination of players that are on the roster which, if moved out, would not destroy the strength of the club today or going forward. Injuries are injuries; they can happen to anyone at any time. With Trout, there's just as much of a chance that he is healthy as there is that he goes down again.