Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[zambonir]

I just don't think the Phillies want Rojas to play regularly, and a LHB platoon CF does not exist except for the one who is already on the roster.

I doubt Bohm is getting traded at this point though. Nobody values him as highly as the Phillies do, and neither side is wrong. I think 2 WAR and his career OPS+ is probably where he is this year, but it's also entirely possibly he has another insanely great month (and that he late-season low won't recur if he's healthy) and can deliver more offense. If he's not hitting behind Harper he's probably not going to look as good either (both RBI-wise and in terms of people pitching around Harper. When this team was winning in the first half the other teams paid for that. In the second half they didn't).

I think Bellinger is more likely than Bohm to be a 3 WAR player this year - he's a more proven quantity including in the field, and no older. But Bohm costs 1/3 as much (and nothing in trade).

Supposedly the Yankees want Bellinger, they are just trying to get more $ out of the Cubs.

[Austinfan]

There's nothing wrong with running it back with minor tweaks.
They did win 95 games last year with a horrid 5th starter Walker/Phillips/Allard.
They will start the season with Crawford, Ricones and Kemp in AAA with Kennedy, Clemons.
They will have Painter, plus Johnson, Abel, Chace, Cabera, McGarry and McGowan.
Walling and McFarlane as RP prospects.
The "usual suspects" DD is sure to sign for ST with June 1 opt outs.

[David_Criss]

Is it going over the third tax threshold that is holding DD back from being able to do much? There is not a lot of wiggle room if that is the case. Even if you could trade Castellanos to a Cincinnati, Detroit or KC, how much of his salary would they take? And then you end up with Wilson or Clemens in right field, but save some luxury tax room to sign another bat or arm - ie a net sum gain.

[andyb]

They will start the season with Crawford, Ricones and Kemp in AAA with Kennedy, Clemons.
They will have Painter, plus Johnson, Abel, Chace, Cabera, McGarry and McGowan.
Walling and McFarlane as RP prospects.

I am not unopposed to running it back with small tweaks, but just naming 10 minor league names does not do much. Other than Painter we really have zero expectations with the minor leaguers this year. That is why they want another outfielder. And please - Rincones.

[Austinfan]

Safety in numbers. They're a 95+ win team, all they need are some tweaks.
5th starter who can share the job with Painter and insurance for Ranger.
One more RP
RH LF (Wilson?)

Where the kids matter is a few will probably be ready after the AS break.
So is it worth wasting a roster spot/assets for someone who might not be as good down the stretch?

Why Ricones might matter - if Castellanos struggles this season, i doubt they'll be patient, so Crawford or Ricones could end up platooning with him. So how kids play up to the AS game may dictate DD's trade deadline moves.

[andyb]

Rincones. Not that hard to spell it correctly.

[zambonir]

I don't have a problem with running it back either and there are certainly things about last years team that can improve, but there are just as many that can get worse. Plus completely different competition. Just because last year went the way it did doesn't mean this year might not be more like 2022 or 2023. (Which, of course, might not be so bad, but a losing record in April or May would definitely have people tearing their hair out about a quiet off-season).

Still don't think they'll sign another reliever of any note. And they will get a LF.

What in the world makes you think they wouldn't be patient with Castellanos? They were last year, probably too much so and got rewarded for it. He's not gonna play 162 but it will still be a miracle if he actually sits once a week. Bohm is just as likely to be benched (which is to say, not very, but it's happened to him more recently, and historically).

[Austinfan]

Sure it is, no spell check to help an old man out!

[BostonRoss]

You may be right about Bohm not being traded. And I'm fine with that if they can't get something of significant value in return. Nothing wrong with having a 2 WAR 3B. It would have been foolish not to shop him, but if the return wasn't there, no problem.

[Austinfan]

What in the world makes you think they wouldn't be patient with Castellanos?

They've quietly tried to trade him, he's a year older, and less money to eat.
So less need to keep him happy.

[bkeich]

Running it back again should not be an option / the goal. We won 95 games, but had unusually good health and every single player will be a year older, and every single of our top 8 players on the team is past or in their prime, mostly slightly past.

The idea should not be to win a few less games as that will result in not making the playoffs as teams like the Mets are not sitting pat, the Braves will get multiple all stars back that did miss most of the season, etc.

We will need to improve just to stay competitive. As I stated before, the easiest way to lose a race is to stand still

[Austinfan]

It's a multi-period game.
Better to gamble on 2025 and be in better shape from 2026-28.
Phillies built better teams in 2009-11 but the result was no brass ring and a complete collapse.

Just because you're a big money team doesn't mean you can't make good small money moves.
They don't need another star if it blow their budget for the next five years.
A couple tweaks could have a significant effect, one thing to do with an aging team is have a good bench and use it to rest your starters - Sosa can fill in at SS, ??? at 1B, DH, ??? in LF, RF.
Get me another RP and a solid bench player (not another Merrifield) and I'll be happy.

[dcsman]

From what I read with projected arbitration numbers the Phillies are around 287 million in payroll. Good for second in baseball. The highest tax tier is 304, where I believe the penalty is 110% of the amount over that. So looking at less than 20 million left to stay under 304. If that is there goal. I have not heard the Phillies say that. I have heard they have flexibility but they are acting like they want to stay under that.

Bohm is projected around 8 million in arbitration.

Thank you for this.

Does the ~$8 million for potentially signing Sasaki also play into the tax threshold or is that different because it's coming from international money? If it's "taxable" then I suspect DD is waiting on Sasaki before making any other moves, even though him signing with the Phils seems unlikely. It also means we have to wait until January 16 to do much else unless a Bohm trade comes to fruition.

[bkeich]

It's a multi-period game.
Better to gamble on 2025 and be in better shape from 2026-28.
Phillies built better teams in 2009-11 but the result was no brass ring and a complete collapse.

Just because you're a big money team doesn't mean you can't make good small money moves.
They don't need another star if it blow their budget for the next five years.
A couple tweaks could have a significant effect, one thing to do with an aging team is have a good bench and use it to rest your starters - Sosa can fill in at SS, ??? at 1B, DH, ??? in LF, RF.
Get me another RP and a solid bench player (not another Merrifield) and I'll be happy.

Ok, what would we do…

I accept that no one will trade for Castellanos, even if we pay most of his salary. If we could give him away I would.

I think we can trade Schwarber so I would. We need to clear one of them so the other can DH. Getting Castellanos out of the field will alone be worth 2 WAR. Maybe Schwarber can at least be traded with his salary.

That should free up some capital for an OF. Not a top level guy, but maybe a middle of the pack rental.

Or Move Turner to the OF. He is a defensive liability, you could get some wins just by not playing him at SS and instead in the OF where he probably is at least good, maybe even above average defensively.

Obviously we still need a Reliever. Don’t go big.

See if any team is willing to trade their salary disaster for Walker. He is toast, no point in continuing this disaster.

I would really push Crawford if we are still missing an OF. He doesn’t need to be a finished product to contribute.

Bring up Marchan and demote Stubbs. Start Marchan at least 50-60 games.

I agree, spend on the bench. We are going to get more injuries this year than last, we need more competency in backups. Rojas as a #4 OF means we can at least improve the defense if there is an injury.

Give Realmuto reps at 1B to be Harper’s backup. Casty also. Realmuto doesn’t need practice catching, I would give him maybe 30 innings in spring training behind the plate it is a long season. The rest of the time he learns 1B

Painter needs a starting partner/tandem. Extend him by limiting him to 5 IP in ANY start so that maybe we can get close to a season out of him.

[EDmuch]

U lost me after the idea of trading Schwarber.

[dcsman]

Ranger Suarez just hired Scott Boras as his agent.

Bye Felicia!

[andyb]

Does the ~$8 million for potentially signing Sasaki also play into the tax threshold or is that different because it's coming from international money?

No. Sasaki would make the major league minimum his first year. No extra taxes on the bonus amount (though there will be a posting fee).

After that he'd have at least 2 years pre-arbitration but I just assume any team might pursue a long term deal at that time.

[bkeich]

U lost me after the idea of trading Schwarber.

Well, as I said I would rather trade Casty, but I just don’t see that as realistic. You have to do something to improve the team, and the absolute easiest way to do that is get Casty out of the OF. That alone is worth 2 WAR. You can also use Schwarber’s salary to improve other areas (better reliever, better bench)

What other ideas?

[zambonir]

The idea should not be to win a few less games as that will result in not making the playoffs as teams like the Mets are not sitting pat, the Braves will get multiple all stars back that did miss most of the season, etc.

They could lose between six and nine fewer games and still make the playoffs. Not what you want obviously. But you have to pick your spots. Staying in the wild card race until the trade deadline and saving all your powder (both CBT threshold money and prospects) until then is not a bad option if you don't like what your money or major leaguers or prospects can buy now.

I hardly think Suarez hiring the same agent as Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm is a problem for the Phillies, but sure, it signals that he intends to test free agency (and the Phillies have pretty clearly signaled that they're going to let him. If they don't trade him let's hope he pitches well enough again to get the QO).

[zambonir]

If the Phillies trade Casty it will either be so they can spend 50% of his salary on a FA OF or because they've taken back as much or more salary in return. And I'd say it's more likely that Schwarber would be the Phillies everyday LF than on another team.

JT is also no longer a good enough hitter to play 1B on days Marchan plays (which he will, but I doubt he'll be healthy enough to play 50-60 games, Stubbs will inevitably be in the mix), plus you'd be removing Harper or Schwarber from the line-up on those days.

If Nick falls off the cliff anything goes but in the meantime, just play him a little less, you could even just put Marsh in RF on those days.

But they still need a LF regardless.