Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[zambonir]

Meanwhile Lane Thomas looked like a bust early and turned into a playoff hero.

Question is will Dombrowski and Thomson admit their error on Hays? Because they seemed to sincerely believe he can be the guy he was from 2021-2023 again if given the chance (which he didn't really get this year), and had supposedly tried to get him several times before. And he's still under 30.

[andyb]

Question is will Dombrowski and Thomson admit their error on Hays?

I think yes. At the time of the deal I thought both Hays and Seranthony were non-tender/non option candidates. Hays made $6.5 million last year and will get a raise through arbitration. I just can't see the Phillies going to $8 or $9 million for him. More likely he comes back for a reduced price ($5 million?) with some reachable incentives than the Phillies going to arbitration.

Another clue - the manager chose to start Weston Wilson over Hays in the most important game of the year. I have no illusions that Wilson is any good defensively in the outfield, but he clearly has more power than Hays at the plate. He can also play for the minimum next year. Even if it is 60-40 that Hays is better than Wilson, we are really talking about a platoon bat that would get 200-300 plate appearances.

[Philsmania]

Not really fair to call Hays an error when he was hurt or sick the whole time, unless the Phillies knew or should have known he wasn't right physically when they got him. That's like saying the Phillies signing David Robertson as a free agent in the 2018-19 offseason was a blunder or that Robertson stole the Phillies money. He got hurt. What can you do? Dumb bad luck and nothing else. Having said that, at most, he would have been a complementary piece and guys like him are probably fungible.

[andyb]

Hays was less an error and more just a deal that did not work out. He was cheap. Basically 2 players making too much to be re-signed next year were traded for each other. There was upside in the deal of a player still in his 20s getting back to where he was 2 years ago. It did not happen and maybe Seranthony was a tiny bit better the rest of the year, but it is not as if Seranthony would have been at the back of our bullpen either.

Arbitration forces pay raises that might go beyond talent level for many players. Sometimes deals are just based on that clock and a hope of improvement.

[zambonir]

Well, the error turned out to be that merely adding a RH platoon bat wasn't enough for this offense. I certainly didn't think that was an error at the time though.

But if they don't tender him, that means they are admitting they no longer believe he can play every day. For sure his illness was a factor. There was little indication he was ever going to round into form against RHP even before that, but two months was also never going to be enough time for him to really show that either.

I think when you non-tender someone they rarely come back, they go get their cheaper deal elsewhere, but either way it's hard to see where he fits for the Phillies in anything other than a scenario where Marsh remains the LF (which would still be at Wilson's expense). Or if they do still think the 2021-2023 Hays is in there, in which case the tender is not unreasonable (but still not very exciting to contemplate).

For sure the deal was not a failure in terms of what the Phillies gave up for him.

[EDmuch]

Sandander has the power but he is sort of a strike out machine. He seems very similar to Casty.

[andyb]

I just figure he is out of our price range anyway. The K rate is actually not that bad (129 in 665 plate appearances), but he is on the aggressive side if we are trying to pare that back a bit in the lineup. He'd be a fit if we did not have Casty. He is better than Casty, but not THAT much better.

I really think we are looking more in the $10 million range if not less. That is because the fallback platoon (Wilson) is not really awful. We don't really need an every day bat. It sure would be nice if RIncones developed into a platoon piece but I don't think that will be by next season.

[EDmuch]

After our abysmal performance the second half of this year, our performance in the series with the Mets, and how we blew it to Arizona last year to say we don't need an "everyday bat" in LF does not pass muster. Repeating our mistake from this past year and assuming we could pair Marsh with a RH platoon and create a left fielder who could make a significant contribution to our offense is wishfull thinking. We need a bat in left field in 2025. Hopefully Rincones will replace Casty in 2 years.

[EDmuch]

If we expand it to include a right handed hitting left fielder, does that improve our options? I think they will want a RH bat behind Harper anyway.

[Taudawg]

If we expect the Phillies to stay under the third tier CBT without a trade or two, the team is going to be much of same. They'll replace a couple departing relievers with a couple relievers and add an outfielder marginally better to or equal to Hays. 2024 was a great season that ended in disappointment, but it is also unlikely repeatable. The Braves back at full strength will be favorites to win the East, and the Mets have the deepest pockets and lots of CBT space to acquire improvements. Every NL team except the Marlins and Rockies will expect to contend next year. The Phillies will have to trade away something of value in order to make enough space to add a difference making player(s), OR they have to spend beyond the third tier.

The fans would hate it, but I might just run it back without signing any FAs and see where things stand in July.

[andyb]

If we expand it to include a right handed hitting left fielder, does that improve our options?

Here is the full MLB Rumors preview. Certainly Teoscar Hernandez would fit the "bat for hire" mode. Dodgers can probably pay him more though. Tyler O'Neill is the other starting quality right-handed LF and he offers more defense and much less consistency and health.

Previewing The 2024-25 MLB Free Agent Class: Corner Outfield

[Taudawg]

Teoscar for certain takes them into the 3rd tier of CBT. He made 23.5 this year. O'Neill probably does as well. Both strike out a ton. It's not my money, but going into the 3rd tier of CBT with an aging team feels like a rabbit hole that results in no championships and a long rebuild.

[Austinfan]

Given that Crawford and Ricones are good candidates to push for PT in 2026, do they want another longer term OF contract?

[zambonir]

I think there is definitely some pressure to not run it back (and placate fans like Ed, who is hardly in the minority and which also includes a lot of media).

The team is probably still good enough to run it back, but you'd also be betting on the older players not declining, the younger players who didn't improve enough doing so (along with Bohm having an equally good year), the other NL East teams not being greater competition, and the rotation staying healthy. Those are all big asks.

But free agency might not be the answer, and simply filling the hole in LF might not be either. A trade or two seems more likely, whether that means boldly moving on from one of the younger players or finding a way to unload Nick, or both.

[EDmuch]

I think it is a bit over optimistic to assume both Crawford and Rincones will arrive by 2026 ready to be contributing major leaguers. And Crawford, when he arrives, is more likely to be a candidate to replace Rojas and become what the Phils hoped Rojas would become. When it comes to a power bat corner outfielder Rincones is more likely to be replacing Castellanos in 2027.

[EDmuch]

So there is still going to be a need to obtain more offense from left field next year. I do agree, however, that that list of available FAs's this off-season seems rather limited. A trade, with Rincones as the bait, may be the only answer.

[andyb]

Not sure Rincones gets you much.

[xogfog]

I think Bohm has to go in the trade for a LF bat and Sosa or another inexpensive 3B option would hold the fort until Miller is ready.

[EDmuch]

Yeah, I could see a decision to move on from Bohm. as part of a trade.

[bkox]

I think Bohm has to go in the trade for a LF bat

Bohm had a .779 OPS in 2024. (6th among all MLB 3rd basemen)

There were only 16 OFers in all of MLB with a higher OPS in 2024. (there may be more if you qualify with less ABs)

Trading Bohm for a LF straight up is probably just going to get worse overall production.