Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[allentown]

At the same time I don't see how the playoffs showed "closer" was a weakness for them.

Agree, especially since the Phillies were excellent in the first half of season without a designated closer. The Phillies big problem in the playoffs was a lack of offense. It began and the post-season went south when Wheeler gave us an excellent start and we lost a game that was a bullpen game for Mets. Home-field advantage lost right out of the gate. The D also disappointed at times. Our problems were far more centered on the position players than on the pitching. The Mets were hot and we weren't. I suspect Hays was damaged goods when we acquired him.

[bkox]

Otherwise they are back to looking for the next Hoffman or Knebel or Soto or Kimbrel - and only Hofffman on that list succeeded

Disagree that Kimbrel didnt succeed. Are we judging him just by his post season?

3.26 ERA, 1.044 WHIP Opponent BA .181, opponent OPS .611 12.3K/9 Are pretty good stats.

[Austinfan]

The problem I see with their bullpen is they're too in love with velocity and not enough command and movement.
And this extends to the draft picks who have velocity but poor command.

The Lindor HR came on a 99 MPH FB, Alvarado has got hit around throwing 100 and so on.
Kerkering has a very hittable 97 MPH FB. Same with Hoffman.
Too many straight FBs that lack movement and are thrown in the sweet spot.

Spin matters, Wheeler throws 95-97 and is almost impossible to hit when he can locate in the top of the K-zone.

[Philsmania]

Paying big $ for a reliever coming off a big year seems to be one of the biggest traps in baseball.

Which is why the disappointing finish for Hoffman and Estevez may be a blessing in disguise.I've seen it suggested Hoffman will get more than Estevez. I still think they'd like one of them to stay, and Hoffman sure seems to want to stay. As per usual Phillies might be willing to go three or even four years to get a lower AAV, knowing some of it will be lost money in the future.

Otherwise they are back to looking for the next Hoffman or Knebel or Soto or Kimbrel - and only Hofffman on that list succeeded. Estevez really didn't either, given the price.

At the same time I don't see how the playoffs showed "closer" was a weakness for them. It was an unusual and unfortunate cluster of good pitchers having a few bad games all at once. But not one of them happened in the traditional closer role. Game 1 was the closest, but that was the 8th inning. Game 4 was the 6th. Nola took the loss in Game 3 with Kerkering allowing his runs in the 6th. Bringing in - let alone overpaying for - a proven closer doesn't fix that, especially when you look at how other great relievers have already performed this playoff season (and how perceived not-great relievers routinely step up in October. We just didn't get that this year either).

I personally would rather keep Estevez since he has a bigger and better body of work. I wonder if Hoffman is either starting to hurt or reverting to his mean.

[bkox]

Hoffman had one bad month (Aug) and one bad playoff series. Sept ERA was a bit high but his other stats like WHIP, k/9 and K/BB were excellent

[zambonir]

Yeah, agreed that Kimbrel was a solid acquisition but he also was not acquired as a proven closer at the top of the market (he was slightly overpaid on the one-year deal but was in no position to get what Hoffman and Estevez are now), and he went pretty hard downhill towards the end (not even counting the playofffs, which were no different for him than our guys this year. Ironically Kimbrel also did not pitch in any traditional closer/save situation last playoffs, at least not in his two bad outings).

I personally would rather keep Estevez since he has a bigger and better body of work. I wonder if Hoffman is either starting to hurt or reverting to his mean.

But he doesn't really have that big a body of work. He has less closing experience than Soto did. Wasn't especially great in 2023, his first year in the role. Pitched about the same as he did for the Phillies as he did that year (same ERA, better WHIP). His stellar 2024 really came down to May-July.

There are just no guarantees with relievers.

[Florida_Sunshine]

Estevez has 57 saves over the last two years. 7 blown saves. How would those stats rank against other closers the last 2 years.

[VoteForKalas]

I had thought the Phillies understood a team does not need a set closer, but the last two years with Kimbrel and Estevez they have shown otherwise. I'm a much bigger fan of using the best guy for each situation regardless of role.

[allentown]

There are just no guarantees with relievers

Truer words were never written. They are the least safe way to invest big $ in FAs. Audition many, teach them anew pitch or a more confusing and/or repeatable motion. Over the years, our success with big $ for starters has been far more successful.

[Florida_Sunshine]

But isn't that sort of the way that the Phillies have managed their relievers?

[Jazzhead]

The mistake would be to start trading young prospects for veterans who are unlikely to put them over the top.

Of course, But is it worth it to trade young prospects for veterans who are likely to put them over the top? I'm thinking specifically of a front line starter, such as a guy like Chris Sale who the Braves practically stole last year?

[Jazzhead]

At the same time I don't see how the playoffs showed "closer" was a weakness for them. It was an unusual and unfortunate cluster of good pitchers having a few bad games all at once. But not one of them happened in the traditional closer role.

I think the playoff series with the Mets was, with respect to our bullpen, merely an aberration rather than an indicator that the pen needs to be blown up. We should resign both Hoffman and Estevez to fair contracts if we can; if another team wants to overpay than let that be an indication that they prefer another setting for their next act.

[EDmuch]

As to the lineup, I think the most obvious and absolutely necessary change is in left field. We do not know what data the Phils have compiled on Bohm, so. it is hard to predict which way they will go with him. Same with Stott. But we know JT is on the downside of his offensive career. Ww know that Trea Turner is probably no longer a reliable .300+ hitter. So the only place where we can look with confidence to improve offensively is left field. Marsh just does not fill the offensive boost team's frequently get from their. left fielder. So a new left fielder who can make a substantial offensive contribution seems to be the one place where they can boost the offense,

[zambonir]

They likely can't afford both of them nor would it be a good allocation of resources unless they trade Alvarado (or Walker, heh). For what Jose makes they need him back as one of the top three or four relief arms. Re-sign one or the other of the two RHPs and then find another Soto or Seranthony or Strahm (i.e. a $4-7 million reliever controlled or on a shorter deal) as well as hopefully the next Bellatti or Hoffman (two very different ceilings there, as it turned out).

Hoffman made just $2.2 million this year. Soto and Seranthony were still just $5 million and $4.25 million. Even Estevez was just $6.75 million. Salary-wise I think the Phillies already figured they would replace Soto and Seranthony (who were set to make around $13 million in 2025) with one of the two pending FAs but not both. And that was when they didn't necessarily think they would need to get a new OF either.

[andyb]

We should resign both Hoffman and Estevez to fair contracts if we can;

In a non-salary cap limited world I would say yes to that. The issue of course is adding $30 million to the payroll for relievers even if you think it is a fair market price and the two are a good bet to be decent for 3-4 more years.

I do agree a little more with the mix and match bullpens. Soto did not work out, but the price was minimal and who is to say we can't pull off similar deals. I would be looking for relievers maybe in the second year of arbitration that become a little more expensive to some teams. That sweet spot of making $4-$6 million but having high leverage potential.

Wheeler's extension kicks in this year and really takes us close to that 3rd tier of the luxury tax where the penalties start to become significant. We have like $20 million more of room to work with, so I am guessing a combination of trades and mid-level free agents is what we should do.

[bkox]

Ww know that Trea Turner is probably no longer a reliable .300+ hitter

There were 7 .300 Hitters in ALL of the MLB.

Trea Turner finished 9th in the MLB in BA this year

[zambonir]

Turner is fine. Bohm and Castellanos are also good enough. But those are three largely similar players (RHBs, not great defensively, not on-base machines, not middle-of-the-order power except for Nick). Maybe the Phillies only need two of that type of player.

Plus, of course, JT is no longer a big bat.

So yeah, regardless, they need a corner OF or corner IF who is more akin to peak Rhys Hoskins or peak Pat Burrell. Barring a trade, LF is the obvious open spot (and you could still run a Marsh/Rojas platoon in CF).

[jimbomill]

with respect to our bullpen, merely an aberration

The bullpen also lost leads last season against the Diamondbacks .. might me more than just an aberration.

[zambonir]

But last year it was Kimbrel, who was obviously ragged, and Alvarado (who also blew the World Series-losing save in 2022). It was a lot more implausible that two All-Stars and a proven closer would all struggle at the same time in a short series. But had the Phillies somehow survived they might have been just fine in the next round. It's certainly not a problem you can solve by giving out a Hader or Diaz-like contract (whether to our own guys or a new guy).

I do think the layoff probably hurt the pen even more than the offense (since the offense already looked like that before).

[andyb]

Barring a trade, LF is the obvious open spot (and you could still run a Marsh/Rojas platoon in CF).

Hays to me has to be a good non-tender candidate. He has not proven he is more than a platoon player any more so no way do we want to pay for the short side of a platoon.

Last year they avoided looking at another left-handed bat because they assumed Rojas would be fine and Marsh might need a platoon partner. The Rojas part of the equation failed though. And we came up with Weston Wilson who is just fine in a low cost platoon role against left-handed pitching.

So what left-handed corney outfielders are out there in free agency?

Juan Soto
Anthony Santander (switch hitter)
Jurickson Profar (switch)
Michael Conforto
Max Kepler
Alex Verdugo
Jason Heyward
David Peralta
Jesse Winker
Adam Frazier

I had not expect to be intrigued by Profar on this list but I kind of am. Played for only $1 million last year. Could get a QO but really has not been consistent enough. Could he be enticed on a 3-year deal for something like $40 million? Not much value defensively any more, but AF would love his plate discipline.