Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[bkeich]

I would absolutely trade Castellanos to anyone willing to take him. His defense is almost legendary bad. His dWAR the last 4 seasons are -1.3, -1.3, 1.5 and -1.7. That is the worst in the majors over that period.

They need to move on from him. He would need a .850 OPS to make him a good player, and he is no where near that.

[Dirk41]

Yea sure.

Just trying to win next year

[jimbomill]

Indeed - the prediction of gradual decline seems spot on; chase rate seems as bad as ever for Trey. Also, as with almost any free agent (not named Ohtani) the price tag gets set by what they've done - with high hopes they continue with the next team.

[julio]

This will be an interesting winter. Lots of potential for roster changes.

Three free agents:

• Spencer Turnbull
• Carlos Estevez
• Jeff Hoffman

Nine (!) arbitration cases/theoretical non-tenders:

• Kolby Allard
• Ranger Suarez
• Jose Ruiz
• Garrett Stubbs
• Alec Bohm
• Edmundo Sosa
• Bryson Stott
• Austin Hays
• Brandon Marsh

[David_Criss]

Braes just fired Kevin Seitzer. Despite all the injuries, the Braves came pretty close to the post season.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/braves-fire-hitting-coach-kevin-seitzer-after-10-seasons-dismiss-2-other-coaches/ar-AA1s3v0e?ocid=BingNewsSerp

[Austinfan]

His fielding is already average or below and will get worse.
Which means a move to OF/2B once MIller/Caba are ready.

[andyb]

Which means a move to OF/2B once MIller/Caba are ready.

But they have to be better than Turner and that is not at all clear. He'll be at SS almost guaranteed for another year or two. Then we'll see about Miller. Caba is much further away and we are really not sure he is going to be a starting quality SS yet. You can't just throw out young names on a timeline when they are so far away. Crawford and Miller are the closest so it is easier to see them, but they both have questions of their own. Is Crawford really better than Rojas assuming some improvement from Rojas over the next 2 years? Is Miller a SS defensively? Lots of questions to answer before we give away Turner's job.

[bigegypt0417]

This team as currently constructed is not in a position to wait for the kids to be ready...I think this is where some are stuck. This isn't a rebuild...we are stacked with vets who are on the clock...anyone building scnearios outside of 2025 are probably not going to be on board with what happens this offseason.

[Austinfan]

I don't see a "rebuild," rather, low cost patches on a veteran team hoping to get lucky for a couple seasons before the rebuilt farm system starts feeding in talent on a regular basis.

The mistake would be to start trading young prospects for veterans who are unlikely to put them over the top.

Been there, done that.

[bigegypt0417]

Sorry...when you're paying 200 million for a payroll I'm not sure "patches" work.

This team needs to find a legitimate closer and more reliable back inning arms.

I can understand a younger player on the bench but you're too far in.

[andyb]

Been there, done that.

And it has been 3 pretty good seasons in a row.

It is not yours or our money. I am not really advocating for big ticket free agents, but I fully expect some big moves. We are going to sign an expensive bullpen arm. We could easily trade some prospects for pieces like we did in the Marsh and Alvarado deals. We probably won't be able to trade anyone really expensive, but we could shuffle mid-level guys like Bohm and Stott and Marsh if we had to.

Standing pat is really not the answer. A good GM will look at both trades and free agency. We'll hopefully stay under the 3rd competitive balance threshold ($281 million) but other than that I see DD with some flexibility to make moves. Ideally we do want guys like Miller and Crawford and Painter to take jobs for a minimum salary. We just won't count on that yet.

[Austinfan]

It's not spending the money that's the issue, it's the penalties (draft picks, LA money) that this team really can't afford.
They've just got the farm system back to "average," they need to take up another tier.
And when you look at this lineup, most mid-range FAs aren't going to move the needle.

[allentown]

How much you are already paying only determines how much you have left to spend. The answer is: not much. This was the year for the Phillies. DD muffed the trade deadline and the team hit the playoffs flat -- at least the position players did. Our chances next year are worse than this year. Quite a bit worse: the Braves and Dodgers are unlikely to repeat the number of key injuries they had this season and the Mets are on the rise and will be willing to spend. If the Phillies trade the future for another shot in 2025, they likely don't make it and doom the Phillies to at least half a decade of noncontention. I don't see our chances as any worse in 2026 than in 2025. We will have both more $ to spend and possibly a flush of young talent then -- provided we don't trade it away foolishly.

[andyb]

Spending money is constantly the issue with you. Nobody is saying they should go after compensation free agents, but that is more because we don't need them. If Juan Soto really wanted to play here I would certainly shuffle the decks for him, but I don't really expect that.

I am totally willing to trade second tier prospects and spend up to $280 million to win. That would probably involve trades too because teams win with 27-year-olds and not 31-year-olds. Getting that 27 year old who might be getting expensive for a smaller market will cost some prospects. That is better than standing pat though. We all hated the Curtis Mead deal, but it is actually looking like a spectacular win for us now. Not sure what I'd give up for a Crochet, but if there is a creative deal I'd certainly look at it (and yes that might mean a better prospect like Crawford or Caba in a deal).

The urgency of winning now increases by the year. The core is relatively healthy but will be a year older. "Been there, done that" has worked pretty well so far and for me the future is now.

[andyb]

I did not see these posted. Here are the projected arbitration figures:

Ranger Suarez (5.112): $8.9MM
Austin Hays (5.057): $6.4MM
Jose Ruiz (4.148): $1.2MM
Edmundo Sosa (4.140): $2.5MM
Garrett Stubbs (4.120): $1.2MM
Alec Bohm (4.106): $8.1MM
Kolby Allard (4.021): $1.1MM
Brandon Marsh (3.078): $3MM
Bryson Stott (3.000): $3.5MM

Allard is a likely non-tender. Stubbs is 50-50. I think the only other one where they think about is Hays. I would non-tender him and just give Wilson that backup RH job. Just not sure where the Phillies are with him, especially since they liked him enough to trade for him (though also remember Seranthony had an $8 million option for 2025 which the Phillies would have probably declined anyway).

[mdougherty12]

Cot's has the Phils with $222.5 million committed to 11 players in 2025 so far:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1OhaLeCpeOyJOkBZqOFCC__afbPLtIJL85BuIwVfOZ-s/htmlview

[andyb]

If you look at the tax section we are around $239 million. I think that does not include anything other than the named contracts, the $17 million of benefits and the 0-3 pool. Add $27 million for the arbitration list (minus Hays, Allard, and Stubbs) and we are in the $256-$257 range for about 17 players. Another $6-$7 million to fill up the roster and we are around $263 million.

That is not much flexibility if the goal is to stay under $281 but it is some. A top reliever will eat up $10-$15 million so trades are probably the most likely move for DD IMO. That really could be Bohm or Suarez if you think about it. Unless they wanted to deal Schwarber which might kill the clubhouse. One needs to figure that Harper and Wheeler and Nola are untouchable. Casty and JT and Walker can't really be traded for savings. Schwarber is the big salary (and only 1 year) that could be moved and we probably are not going to do that.

Note - MLB really squeezes the player's union on that CBT level. The percentage increases have just been nowhere near the revenue increases and all the "negotiated increased benefits" falls under the cap anyway so the players are really not getting anything for that supposed win.

[Callison]

Casty is here to stay. Untradeable.

Walker is here to stay. Walker absolutely has to sign on to a custom strength and conditioning program to reclaim himself. The Phils and Walker should be thinking this through together. Two more years to go with this guy and they better look better than the last one.

Turner might be the 3rd best SS on the team but he's a superstar and likes SS so leave him alone.

Sosa is here to stay. Best bench IF in MLB. He deserves a start in LF ahead of the punchless reclamation projects the Phils keep running out there - Wilson excepted.

The Phils need a LF who can hit. They've needed one for years. Though Hays did nearly nothing, he was apparently sick and injured most of the time, so the Phils have no idea what they have in him. LF remains open.

Rojas starts in CF because he's projected to be an All Star OF, but he's too weak at bat. The team needs more hitting and Rojas should be moved to the bench for a better hitter.

Nola absolutely, positively needs to go to a sports shrink. Off days need not turn into screaming disasters. Smoltz has a number for him to call. Today would be a good time.

Was feeling good about the apparent improvements in the pen, but the Phils will need to find some stronger arms somewhere. When you team brings up a pitcher, you hope you're going to see the promise of a future, but the pitchers the Phils brought up go shelled. Anybody have a clue what happened to Hoffman?

[allentown]

That is not much flexibility if the goal is to stay under $281 but it is some. A top reliever will eat up $10-$15 million so trades are probably the most likely move for DD IMO.

Agreed, $18 million is very little flexibility, especially since some of those $ will be saved for trade deadline. That's why I doubt we spend $10-15 million for a top reliever, especially since top relievers in one season usually drop the next year, except for a few superman relievers. Paying big $ for a reliever coming off a big year seems to be one of the biggest traps in baseball. I don't want to trade to fill the hole. An international signing is probably the best route.

[zambonir]

Paying big $ for a reliever coming off a big year seems to be one of the biggest traps in baseball.

Which is why the disappointing finish for Hoffman and Estevez may be a blessing in disguise.I've seen it suggested Hoffman will get more than Estevez. I still think they'd like one of them to stay, and Hoffman sure seems to want to stay. As per usual Phillies might be willing to go three or even four years to get a lower AAV, knowing some of it will be lost money in the future.

Otherwise they are back to looking for the next Hoffman or Knebel or Soto or Kimbrel - and only Hofffman on that list succeeded. Estevez really didn't either, given the price.

At the same time I don't see how the playoffs showed "closer" was a weakness for them. It was an unusual and unfortunate cluster of good pitchers having a few bad games all at once. But not one of them happened in the traditional closer role. Game 1 was the closest, but that was the 8th inning. Game 4 was the 6th. Nola took the loss in Game 3 with Kerkering allowing his runs in the 6th. Bringing in - let alone overpaying for - a proven closer doesn't fix that, especially when you look at how other great relievers have already performed this playoff season (and how perceived not-great relievers routinely step up in October. We just didn't get that this year either).