Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[zambonir]

True/fair enough, but it's not like Alec has ever been a walking machine. Nor has Nick, granted. Both BA-driven guys. Regardless in Matt's split above Nick still wins OBP handily (.333 to .311), and I think SLG - and home runs - is what the Phillies are looking for - neither Bohm nor Nick have been enough a #4/5 hitter and Stott and Marsh aren't either. In the end, both players just aren't Rhys Hoskins, though we probably don't want him anymore either. Missed him a lot in 2023 though.

[zambonir]

Actual rumors!

Mariners Have Had Trade Talks Involving Alec Bohm, Nico Hoerner

Still, despite Bohm’s utility, it seems the Phils are setting a high asking price for his services. Per Jude’s report, the Phillies asked for either Logan Gilbert or George Kirby in return, which is surely why a deal hasn’t happened yet.

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/is-alec-bohm-the-answer-for-the-mariners-at-third-base/

[Austinfan]

Phillies would probably have to add, either a solid minor league starting prospect (Johnson?) or another asset.
But sounds like they're ready to move on from Ranger, you don't trade for a 32 start pitcher and then give Ranger an extension with Painter right around the corner (and I doubt they've given up on Abel).

[fish]

Still, despite Bohm’s utility, it seems the Phils are setting a high asking price for his services. Per Jude’s report, the Phillies asked for either Logan Gilbert or George Kirby in return, which is surely why a deal hasn’t happened yet.

There isn’t much to match up with on their big league roster, unless they are willing to deal Munoz. They do have a lot of prospect capital that would help to flip in a deal for Crochett or something.

[andyb]

the Phillies asked for either Logan Gilbert or George Kirby in return,

I guess those Sasaki talks are not going well. Sigh....

[Taudawg]

There isn’t much to match up with on their big league roster, unless they are willing to deal Munoz. They do have a lot of prospect capital that would help to flip in a deal for Crochett or something.

Was thinking that myself - Trading Bohm for prospects and trading prospects for Crochet. Opens things up for a trade of Ranger. Crochet is still inexpensive and these two moves would free up some cash. Would need Ranger trade to fill 3B vacancy and/or OF platoon partner.

[andyb]

Finding a LH platoon partner for Sosa that is better than Clemens is not a bad solution for the 3B position if we think Miller is only a year or two away.

Also, Bowden's latest proposal is somewhat interesting. He has Bohm going to St. Louis for Arenado and Ryan Helsley. He also says the Phillies might throw in Nori for St. Louis paying down some of Arenado's contract ($74 million left). He fails to note that $10 million of that is already paid down by CO. Not sure the Phillies want to give up Nori as they also think about dealing Crawford.

[zambonir]

Seems like the M's just took a hard pass on that.

I do wonder if the Phillies are just not counting on Ranger as anything more than Painter's tandem partner, rather than thinking about trading him. He was really only good/health for 100 innings last year. You could just be prepared for that (and/or an injured stint) have both of them, and then move one to the bullpen for the playoffs instead of acquiring another deadline reliever.

3B platoon is certainly doable and so is Arenado even if he's only average at the plate (but elite in the field). But who's the LF?

[Austinfan]

Kemp, Crawford and Ricones should all start the season in Lehigh, with Kennedy, Clemons and Stevenson.
Wilson and Marsh in LF, Marsh/Rojas in CF.

Marchan, Sosa, Wilson are probably locks. So they promote one of the Lehigh guys, bring in a veteran or two to camp, and see who looks ML ready in June and July.
That would be your baseline, then add to it.

[zambonir]

I'm fairly confident no one on that list will be the Phillies' Opening Day LF unless they sign Bregman or Adames to play 3B. And if they decide to go with Marsh in LF Wilson probably loses his job to a new part-time platoon partner (and to Clemens as the IF).

I suppose if they were serious about acquiring a starting pitcher while also keeping Suarez, you might not need as much offense.

[dcsman]

I think you'd almost have to include Suarez and Bohm in the deal for either Gilbert or Kirby. They aren't free agents until 2028 and are both just 24-26 years old.

At first glance I thought I'd like the Bohm for Helsley and Arenado deal but Helsley would just be a 1-year rental and Arenado costs more than $30 million a year. No thanks. Even straight-up for Helsley I don't do that deal.

It's unfortunate but I think the Phils have almost painted themselves into a corner with Bohm in that they almost have to move him at this point. __

[fish]

It's unfortunate but I think the Phils have almost painted themselves into a corner with Bohm in that they almost have to move him at this point. _

They haven’t done anything, it’s just media and fans talking rumors to kill time during the winter like we do every year.

[zambonir]

I think you'd almost have to include Suarez and Bohm in the deal for either Gilbert or Kirby. They aren't free agents until 2028 and are both just 24-26 years old.

At first glance I thought I'd like the Bohm for Helsley and Arenado deal but Helsley would just be a 1-year rental and Arenado costs more than $30 million a year. No thanks. Even straight-up for Helsley I don't do that deal.

Yeah I think that was just Dombrowski asking for the moon.

I don't think there's any corners yet. Winter meetings haven't even started. There will still be FAs to sign and trades to make after the holidays too.

Arenado's luxury tax hit is 25 million and his actual dollar cost is much less than that (21/16/15). You'd probably want the Cards to pick up about $5 million per year. Maybe a lot more though, given his decline. Presley is basically a freebie in exchange for taking on all that money. If all that costs is Bohm, sign me up. I mean, I would also trade Bohm straight up for Williams and he's a FA next year too. But you can do a lot with the $30-40 million you then aren't spending right away on Hoffman or Tanner Scott or Estevez (and both Strahm and Alvardo come off the books after next year too).

(Edit: I see Arenado has $50 million deffered. $2 or $3 million a year from now until 2041. But so what.)

[Austinfan]

At this point in his career, is Arenado an upgrade over Sosa?
wRC+ 106, 102 last two seasons, he'll be 34. When will he fall off the cliff?
Sosa 92, 103. Sosa will be 29.
Both are plus fielders.

Probably better off finding a LH utility IF who can hit against tough RH pitching and rest Sosa.

[VoteForKalas]

I think three of the biggest issues are:

1. The money spent is not fully translating to results on the field.

2. The roster stars continue to age.

3. The farm system prospects are still few and the poisitional options are not coming until 2026 at the earliest.

The Dodgers are the biggest spenders in the game, but they just won the WS. Phillies are next and, outside of reaching the WS in 2022, have not seen that spending advantage pay off.

The Mets or Yanks may overtake the Phillies in 2025 spending, especially if one signs Soto, but to this point they have spent less for similar results.

I think the Casty and Turner contracts were overpays. Casty was also duplicative of Schwarber. Harper had to be since he was the cornerstone to get any of these other players to come here. JT, Wheeler and Nola are fair deals that we had no choice on. Losing them was not an option..

That gets to the other point; the younger players - Bohm, Marsh, Stott, Rojas - have shown inconsistent development that delays the timing of giving them more responsibility and moving away from the expensive vet FA focus..The reality Bohm and maybe others in this group are being dangled as trade bait highlights the corner DD has painted himself into with this roster.

The other aspect of that corner is the continued lack of prospects being developed by the farm system. Painter hopefully will come this season, but Crawford and Miller not likely until 2026 if they are not traded themselves to keep the train running in 2025.

At some point, we need to plan and invest for the future. Turner, Harper, Schwarber, Realmuto, Casty, Nola and Wheeler are all over 31 or older. We'll see how DD handles this, but the organization in a tough spot and I'm not sure I see a clear plan from him for addressing it.

[saycheese]

Very good points on all. This is why I am not keen on trading Miller or Crawford or Painter. Heck I may not trade Abel either. You need to continue to have young players coming through the system not only for monetary reasons but also for depth.

Buying Free Agents is almost always an overpay. Unless you get someone like Harper who was young, becomes a franchise cornerstone piece and is a marketing piece.

The key is having the right mix in an organization that does spend money to the tune of being a top 5 spending team.

I do think we have to look at why players like Stott regressed, players like Mick Abel who was a sure fire as there was pitching prospect regressed to a point where he isn't even talked about anymore. Why are playing like Bohm, Rojas, Stott, Marsh not hitting their ceiling?

All that said, this was still a 95 win team in a division that had two other teams win 89 games each. We need an influx from the minors, that influx needs to start this year.

Crawford and Miller though are the two position players who have a chance to be all star type players. Those two need to develop into that. Painter needs to develop into a front line starter.

[zambonir]

At this point in his career, is Arenado an upgrade over Sosa?
wRC+ 106, 102 last two seasons, he'll be 34. When will he fall off the cliff?
Sosa 92, 103. Sosa will be 29.
Both are plus fielders.

Probably better off finding a LH utility IF who can hit against tough RH pitching and rest Sosa.

It's a fair question. But I think the gulf between them defensively is still wide. Arenado +6 DRS, Sosa +1, and I don't necessarily think Sosa gets better with more playing time. And he earned that +1 playing 48 games at SS with just 23 at 3B and 20 at 2B. He's never been as strong as the hot corner.

He had a remarkable run at the plate last year though. They'd be gambling that Arenado is still a better better to have one bounce-back season and otherwise maintain at 100, while believing Sosa drafts back into the mid-'90s if he plays too much (which history does suggest).

Who knows if the Phillies are even that interested. They are just going to be linked to every 3B so long as they are presumably trading Bohm.

It is still amazing and frustrating that the Phillies haven't been able to develop a big bat, even one you can point to as being on the way. Hopefully Miller but he could still end up more of a middle IF level offensive producer. A Burrell, or a Hoskins. Heck, an Utley. Bohm is certainly the best of them. System still hasn't really recovered from the Randolph-Moniak-Haseley troika and none of those guys were going to be offensive stars even if they'd panned out.

[saycheese]

You are probably right, and I would give up a Johnson or a Jean Cabera type in that deal.

However, I would just caution against over rating Seattle pitching. Gilberts home and away splits while still good are not as good as his overalls look. His Era is 3.94 on the road vs 2.49 at home, he gave up 15 home runs in 17 road starts vs 11 in 16 home starts. Kirby was not as dramatic ERA wise 3.04 vs 3.89 but he gave up 5 home runs at home and 17 on the road in 19 games. Have to see how those would translate to Citizens bank park. My assumption is these two are more like 3/4 starters outside of Seattle vs the 1/2 they are in Seattle.

Still both worthy of risk of trading off Bohm.

[xyzabc25]

I think we need to bring in high performance, high impact position players right now. A few of my favorite trade candidates, who are probably close to untouchable are Steven Kwan LF and Kyle Tucker RF. Potential free agents are Jurickson Profar LF and Willy Adames SS maybe3B. SP candidate is Roki Sasaki NPB. Any of these guys will move the needle.

[saycheese]

Jurickson Profar

Have not heard a ton on Profar. Nothing on who is in on and what he is asking. My pause would be he is coming off his career year at age 31. He will play next year at age 32. What is his chances of duplicating last year? Probably a better chance he reverts to his career norms which would not make him an upgrade in LF.