Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[zambonir]

Gelb:

What’s emerged is a portrait of a team increasingly trying to thread a needle for 2025 without compromising 2026 and beyond.

Resetting the Phillies’ offseason ahead of the Winter Meetings

The bullet points:

• did not meet with or offer Soto, would have just been window dressing.

• would prefer not to trade any top prospects. they're not untouchable but it would have to be a big return.

• Bregman's unlikely. Bohm and Suarez are still available. Marsh and Stott less so. Nobody wants Nick w/o the Phillies paying too much (and presumably getting too little). Crochet also unlikely.

• they gotta get a reliever and an OF. As we know.

[saycheese]

Gelb is one of the writers I truly respect when it comes to the Phillies. Thread the needle is right and probably the right approach. This is generally what I have thought throughout the offseason Bregman was never in the conversation because of the cost. Bohm or Suarez could be had in a deal that makes sense and upgrades elsewhere. In other words they are not trading them for a prospect package. So if Seattle wants Bohm for instance they are going to need to give someone who upgrades elsewhere and has multiple years of control. Nick is making 20 mill this year and next. While its more money than his performance giving him away along with cash for something lesser doesn't make sense.

I do think they will get one of the premier relivers out there. Whether its Tanner Scott, bringing back Estevez maybe a Clay Holmes type.

Left Field is going to be more murky. Have to look at teams like Texas and the Red Sox who have extra outfielders. Would love to get a Wyatt Langford who seems to be the 4th outfielder behind Carter, Tarvas and Garcia.

[zambonir]

I think they would still like Hoffman back, but (this is also per Gelb's story though it's not the first time it's been reported) his agent is actively marketing him as a potential starter.

He says they are interested in Holmes too, but same situation.

You can still take prospects in these deals, you just don't keep them all. Or they allow to you trade others.

The other thing he mentions is Bohm probably doesn't get traded until Bregman signs (even if the Phillies were the team to sign him, but especially if they aren't).

[saycheese]

You can still take prospects in these deals, you just don't keep them all. Or they allow to you trade others.

Sure they can just like the Estevez and then Soto deals. Dealt prospects to get one and got back prospects in the other. I just didn't articulate my thought well enough. They are not dealing Bohm or Suarez for packages of prospects unless they have other trades in mind to help the MLB team this year.

[xyzabc25]

His hitting technique has improved that resulted in top performance in 2024. He probably has figured things out and could well repeat or come to those results again. Not sure of his asking price. A site that forecasted the top 20 free agents had him at $45m, 3 year deal. That actually seems a tad cheap to me.

[saycheese]

I would be a hard pass at those dollars. He probably will get it and not live up to those numbers elsewhere. There just isn't much out there. I would rather bring back Austin Hays a 1 yr 5 million on the chance last year was just an injury plagued year.

[flyers19rw]

No doubt that the Turner contract was an overpay. When the Dodgers who were in dire need for a SS passed on keeping Turner, the Phillies should have been hip to his shortcomings. He is a poor fielding SS and will cause the club some issues there until he is moved into the OF.
Castellanos is what he was signed to be; a middle of the order LFer with some power. Unfortunately Harper's injury put him into a position where he is miscast. I don't see the redundancy with Schwarber that others do. Schwarber was going to be a DH and Castellanos the LF. No issues there for me.
I do have a concern as you do with the inability of some of the current young players one the roster to produce up to expectations.
-Rojas may have been pushed into the show too quickly but his stats in the minors gave indication that he could handle it. Perhaps he has had too many mouths whispering in his ears as well as some not accepting him for what he is. A GG in center field who has speed and hits .240-.250 at the end of the batting order can be acceptable if the rest of the club is doing their job.
-Stott showed that he can play a very good 2B. Slumped at the plate this season after changing his hitting approach in the off season. Just get him back on track and he'll be fine. Actually I would like to see him get away from the Day Care bunch and settle in with Schwarber and Bryce. Those two are hard core professionals in this game who don't play around with their craft.
-Bohm seems to have become an issue. There has to be more to his situation than is generally known. He's a talent but one who seems to have worn out his welcome with the wrong people. Thomson is about as easy going of a manager and person as there is. When he has to make a public disciplinary more with you, you have a problem. Time for him to go.
-Marsh is a bust. One third of his ABs are strikeouts. He can't hit left handed pitching. He's fine in LF but not so much in CF. IMO obtaining Marsh was a mistake by DD that now is having to be covered by making another move.

Like you I see investing the future for the club as a necessity. Some of the older guys are going to be coming off of their contracts and will need to be replaced. Fortunately with Painter, Crawford and Miller in the system, internal pieces are there to do this. I wouldn't move any of these three players. Instead move out Marsh and Bohm. Sign a FA for 3B. No need to make any dangerous moves here of a first place club.

[allentown]

The money spent is not fully translating to results on the field.

1. The 2024 team won the NL East with 95 wins. It's fairer to say the Phillies haven't shown well in the playoffs the past two seasons. .

2. Decline of older players has been and will be a problem. Casty was a bad signing, but his and J.T. and Schwarber contract lengths weren't bad. Harper was unavoidable. Turner was a travesty. We're stuck with Casty, but he should be playing less.

3. The farm has improved the last couple years but is still not good enough and hasn't much of a track record of progressing guys who seem promising in lower minors to guys who make MLB or even do well in upper minors. LA program better but far short of where it should be and our ability to sign top guys from Cuba/Japan is pathetic for a free-spending team.

The team certainly needs to get younger.
Flyers: Rojas is fine. I really don't get the disrespect he receives. 2024 was a step back, but still +0.7 WAR. OF platoons may be easiest solution for Phillies. It's worked for them in past and can be relatively cheap without trades or long-term contracts.

[zambonir]

I don't know why people are so down on Marsh. A 110 OPS+ CF who plays acceptable defense is still a really valuable player, even if he's more valuable in LF (but less valuable offensively). He put up 3.1 WAR in 418 ABs and that was the third-best on the team. If his bat is the same this year he'll be a 2.0 WAR player in CF presumably but considering he had a 126 OPS+ in 2023 (and 117 on the Phillies in 2022) it's also reasonable to think there is still more offense there. And Rojas will play against the LHP.

Marsh is also still the youngest player on the roster (two months younger than Stott) besides Rojas (and maybe Marchan now).

[andyb]

Crawford and Miller though are the two position players who have a chance to be all star type players. Those two need to develop into that. Painter needs to develop into a front line starter.

I would not put Crawford in that group yet. Too many issues with his swing and his defense is only rated as average now (needs better routes). Miller and Painter are the two that I think have a better than 50% chance of being very good major leaguers if not stars. Everyone else has more risk or less talent. That does not mean that Crawford is a bad prospect. He profiles as a major league regular CF. There is just a strong chance he is more of a second division regular.

[Austinfan]

O'Hoppe might be more valuable over his career, but Marsh provided years of immediate value, and as you point out, is young enough to have upside left.

Marsh and a RH (Wilson, Kemp later in the season?), Rojas (until Crawford is ready to push him).
Castellanos is overpaid because he's such a liability as a fielder, really should be the DH.

I'm not sold that OF is a priority with Crawford, Ricones and Kemp in AAA (Kemp can play IF and OF).
If you have limited resources, I'd focus on a 5th SP for depth and the bullpen.
Worst thing would be spend big money on 5 year deal for 30+ FA and block cheap prospects.

[zambonir]

Dombrowski's not one to show all his cards but I think we can take his public statements that he wants to improve the line-up via a LF or CF at face value. It's just a question of, how much improvement, and how the pieces fit. As well as the path to doing it (free agency or trade).

And I think what we can also take at face value from that is they don't want Rojas playing everyday (ditto Marsh to some extent but that just means his usual role/number of ABs).

[andyb]

I'm not sold that OF is a priority with Crawford, Ricones and Kemp in AAA (Kemp can play IF and OF).

You really have lots of confidence in prospects that are not that highly rated, especially beyond Crawford. And most of MLB is divided on him.

Yes, the Phillies need to get younger and ideally integrate more of their prospects. But it is also true there are not a lot of sure thing prospects. Most people think Kemp might be a utility guy and Rincones has an outside shot at a 4th OF//strong side platoon role. We are not sure Crawford is better than Rojas. Those just aren't solutions to the Phillies larger problems even if they might fill lower cost roles on the roster.

[Taudawg]

On the latest Phillies Show podcast, both Zolecki and Salisbury reaffirmed Dombrowski is focused on improving the outfield and shoring up the bullpen and OF additions would likely come via trade. It sounds as though, Dombrowski is not enamored with the FA outfield market. Also, Phillies very unlikely to cross into CBT third surcharge.

I think Ricones might be a future RH DH/PlatoonOF. He hasn't hit lefties at all, and based on recent drafts, I think the Phillies are prioritizing athleticism in the OF.

[Taudawg]

Our future LF Platoon? Thomas crushes lefties.

Guardians Open To Trade Offers On Josh Naylor, Lane Thomas

[andyb]

Don't we prefer a left-handed bat? Weston Wilson hits lefties really well. We have Rojas in CF. I think we want another left-handed LF bat and we can go with 2 platoons in the OF (or Marsh plays full time in CF).

[zambonir]

I think they want Marsh and Rojas in CF and someone who can play full-time in LF, so that is certainly not Thomas. But I do think if they keep Marsh in LF they won't settle for Wilson, who still didn't get that much playing time last year. Even if hindsight says he would have done just as well if not better than Hays.

Gelb's story says the Phillies will cross the third bracket. Maybe they meant the fourth? They'd have to shed salary and be really conservative, with more trades than FAs, to not cross the third. And once you've done that the fourth is only about tax rate, not draft and int'l penalties.

[Taudawg]

I think we are talking about the same thing just using different language.

The tax threshold is 241 mil
First surcharge is at 261 mil
Second surcharge 281 mil (already over)
Third surcharge 301 mil. Zolecki and Salisbury did not think the Phillies would exceed or stay above this line.

[BostonRoss]

I don’t get why Castellanos is in RF and Marsh (some of the time) in LF. Nick was signed to be the LF.

[andyb]

Castellanos was mostly a RF when signed and he does have a legit RF arm. When signed we had another RF in Harper so the only spot really was LF. Things changed and he went back to his more natural position. 900+ major league games in the OF and only 23 have been in LF.