Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[BostonRoss]

Entering his age 30 year, O'Neil has had 400 plate appearances exactly twice in his ML career. One was last year, when he missed almost 50 games.

[zambonir]

Yup, a platoon player hindered by an infection last year, sounds familiar.

[saycheese]

"I'm not sure either team would do Bohm for Tucker straight up. Tucker's better but like you say, you only get him for one year. And at the same time, because he's better, the Astros will not only want more, but younger cheaper players."

This is where I am at with Bohm to. If we deal him we should want younger everyday players.

Here is one for you all. Hypothetical and made up by me. Just to say that if we do trade Bohm this is the type of deal we should be looking at.

How about Alec Bohm/Johan Rojas to the Mariners Julio Rodriquez and catching prospect Harry Ford. Phillies may or may not need to include a lower level prospect in this.

Phillies solve centerfield with a 23yr old who has 3 more years of control all be it coming off a down year for him. That allows them to center a around deal Crawford if they like to get Crochet. And then Suarez to restock in other areas.

In this scenario they would still need to get a 3rd baseman. Maybe they can swing a deal with Texas for Josh Smith or something like that. Maybe even a Ryan McMahon from Colorado (although there is some big money still left on his contract).

This to me is shaking things up but not falling off the cliff.

[andyb]

How about Alec Bohm/Johan Rojas to the Mariners Julio Rodriquez and catching prospect Harry Ford. Phillies may or may not need to include a lower level prospect in this.

Not sure how you are constructing your logic here, but Julio Rodriguez alone is far more valuable than both Bohm and Rojas together. Rodriguez has 15.9 WAR over his first 3 seasons and is only 23 so he could get better. Bohm is at an age where he'll start to get worse and has had less than 5 WAR over 3 seasons with his best year still being inferior to any single Rodriguez year.

Bohm is a nice player. Slightly above average. But that is it. He is simply not that good and it is unproven that Rojas is even a starting quality player so he would not add much to that deal. We simply could not get Rodriguez in a deal centered around Bohm without adding Painter and it might take more than that.

[Taudawg]

Looking For A Match In An Alec Bohm Trade

[saycheese]

So I read this a lot when it comes to our own players. We tend to under value our players, we just do. Julio Rodriquez is the exact type player you should be asking for in any deal for Bohm.
When we talk about his war its gone down every year in the league, 6.0 to 5.3 to 4.3. So by your logic we have a descending player in Rodriquez. Last year was by far his worst year. I will say this, the Phillies would be taking a chance by obtaining him. He could continue his downward spiral. Much like another darling Luis Robert JR. or he could level out.

Now that said would I be willing to put a prospect in the deal sure, I wouldn't trade Painter straight up for Rodriquez but a Jean Cabera, Seth Johnson type sure.

Oh can we all please stop throwing Painter into deals. He is as untouchable as a prospect that we have had in many years. You don't need to put him in any deal.

[saycheese]

Good read, seems like half of baseball could use Bohm. The one thing I find intriguing about the article is the consistent talk of rotation help. The Phillies have one of the best rotations in baseball. I get the want to get a Garrett Crochett but 1-4 they are pretty darn tough. Painter at some point should be in rotation on a innings limit next year. Then we have another tier behind him of guys who could fill that roll. Abel, Chace, Johnson, even a Jean Cabera could be in the mix. Oh and we have and we should forget about Walker who probably will be in the mix for the 5th starter spot in spring training simply because his contract is untradeable even if they add in cash.

What the Phillies need if they deal Bohm is an upgrade elsewhere in the lineup. Most likely spots are left field an centerfield. Now could they deal Bohm for a controllable closer sure. Could they deal him for a starting pitcher and deal off Suarez sure. But the Bohm deal would need to fill at least one if not two other areas. My guess is DD would like to get an everyday outfielder and relief pitcher for him.

[zambonir]

Yeah I think part of the assumption on the rotation help is that they might flip Suarez (but if not, said help would still replace him long-term).

I'm sure there is a good fit for a Bohm trade that brings back a LF or a closer; I just wonder if the Phillies are truly hot to acquire a new 3B (Bregman, Adames and Arenado all mentioned here) or if they imagine some kind of patchwork with Sosa and a cheap FA.

Rodriguez's 4.3 WAR and 116 OPS+ while playing CF still makes him an All-Star, not a declining player at 23. But unlike Bohm he has both a better track record and brighter future (and greater positional value). He also had an ankle injury (only missed three weeks of games and four weeks in the OF but probably diminished him for longer than that). Fangraphs projects him at 5.8 this season (up from 3.8, the other number is BBWAR), more than any other Mariners player. He is worth more in a trade than any position player on the Phillies roster (even Harper just because of his age and salary). Not to mention he's hugely popular there.

Not sure the M's can afford to take a player that good off their roster either. Bohm fills a hole but they can't buy or trade to fill another one in the same way the Phillies seem intent on doing. (Edit: I guess the idea is Rojas would replace Rodriguez but if the Mariners think that is a good idea we should probably keep Rojas.)

[andyb]

When we talk about his war its gone down every year in the league, 6.0 to 5.3 to 4.3. So by your logic we have a descending player in Rodriquez.

He had a bad ankle injury last year that hurt his performance. Age and tools suggest he will be much better. We value Bohm less because of his age and his inferior defense. We have seen it for 5 years. It is not going to get much better. I am betting on the 23 year old getting better versus the 28-year-old. Tools and age matter.

[Aquapong]

If DD called Seattle asking for Rodriguez for Bohm, Rojas, and Seth Johnson, he’d rightfully get laughed off the phone.

The Astros or Yankees seem to be the easiest sells for Bohm. They are looking for a 3B.

[Callison]

IMHO, Bohm has been misused batting #4. Had some success at #2 when Turner went down, but that was quickly forgotten.

No clue why ownership acquired a new partner, but it suggests the Phils are ready to spend. The Dodgers are setting the bar plenty high

[zambonir]

I think you are misremembering, he had all of two games hitting second and had a .422 OPS.

He did well hitting third for 13 games but that was presumably due to Harper's injury not Turner's.

I agree his bat to ball skills make sense there if in fact he remains productive enough to justify it, but in reality the hitter he was from May 1 on (per the MLBTR story above) can just as easily hit 6th. And the hitter he was in the second half, even lower. Which is also surely why they're willing to let another team roll the dice on those outcomes.

The owner thing is mostly because the Buck half of the partnership wants to partially cash out and not be forced to put more in. Middleton didn't have to give up some of his share, he just chose to. Payroll is only a very small part of why they want the infusion though, it's more about stadium upgrades and real estate deals in both Clearwater and Philadelphia.

[allentown]

I agree his bat to ball skills make sense there if in fact he remains productive enough to justify it, but in reality the hitter he was from May 1 on (per the MLBTR story above) can just as easily hit 6th. And the hitter he was in the second half, even lower.

Bohm had a great start to 2024, while Castellanos was worse than useless. Managements conclusion: play Casty every game in 2024 and throw Bohm to the scrap heap. It makes no sense. Bohm is relatively young, relatively cheap, had a bWAR of 3 and drove in a ton of runs.

[Matt_Winkelman]

The answer is there is no trade market for Castellanos (they check every year), and so you would be paying to trade him and then paying for a replacement that is probably not a huge improvement.

We can talk about Nick's defense (which I think gets overrated how bad it is), but here is June 1 to end of year.
Bohm - .263/.311/.422 102 wRC+
Castellanos - .279/.333/.483 125 wRC+

We also know Nick was attempting to make changes to open the year that backfired. Playing Castellanos the rest of the way was actually smart (and by month June to EOY he went 122 wRC+, 114, 123, 139)

[zambonir]

If Bohm gets thrown to the scrap heap that would suggest all of MLB sees his flaws. I certainly don't expect that to be the case. They get value for him or they keep him.

If I had to bet on which of Casty and Bohm put up a 110 OPS+ for the entire 2025 season I'd go with Casty. I might lose. And I'd like to be wrong if they are both still on the Phillies (or rather, I'd like to see Casty stick to 110 and Bohm get to 120).

I would still have no problem with the Phillies trading Nick for 50 cents on the dollar but the pieces still probably don't fit for them. If they aren't dying to sign one of the LF options to play with Marsh/Rojas and Nick, that would be an even dicier plan to put Marsh back in LF and replace Nick.

[xyzabc25]

Yes, I don't mind keeping Nick in RF, Rojas/Marsh in CF, and finding a solid everyday LF. My trade candidates for LF are Steven Kwan CLE WAR 4.1 excellent defense (I know practically untouchable), Brendan Donovan STL WAR 3.2 good defense, Taylor Lord LAA WAR 2.7 above average defense.

[andyb]

If I had to bet on which of Casty and Bohm put up a 110 OPS+ for the entire 2025 season I'd go with Casty. I might lose. And I'd like to be wrong if they are both still on the Phillies (or rather, I'd like to see Casty stick to 110 and Bohm get to 120).

I'd bet on Bohm to be the better offensive player actually. But I also would bet Bohm's defense reverts to a problem once again which would negate the increased offensive value. The case to trade Bohm is that he does have value now off of his current season, especially because there are other teams that will value him as a 3 WAR player. I think he is more like a 2 WAR player so am willing to see what the market is for him.

Being willing to trade Bohm is not necessarily calling him a bad player. There is no shame in being merely above average. It is just that trading Bohm is a better path to upgrading the team because you don't have to eat any salary to get prospects back. And that prospect capital could be used in other deals.

[Taudawg]

I'd bet on Bohm to be the better offensive player actually. But I also would bet Bohm's defense reverts to a problem once again which would negate the increased offensive value. The case to trade Bohm is that he does have value now off of his current season, especially because there are other teams that will value him as a 3 WAR player. I think he is more like a 2 WAR player so am willing to see what the market is for him.

Being willing to trade Bohm is not necessarily calling him a bad player. There is no shame in being merely above average. It is just that trading Bohm is a better path to upgrading the team because you don't have to eat any salary to get prospects back. And that prospect capital could be used in other deals.

Yup, this

[zambonir]

Well, my bet would be based on what Matt posted above - that Nick was a lot better than Bohm from June 1 on. Granted, he has not always been a model of consistency himself and is more likely to be in decline. But I think they are both probably 105-110 OPS+ guys, best-case, and Nick is still probably the higher-SLG player (again, dramatically so from June 1 on last year). Bohm seems to make up for that with his flair for RBIs, but I'm not sure that's real or sustainable, and any solid hitter who'd gotten his same ABs last year would have done the same (or better, with more SLG).

Clearly the Phillies have made their internal judgment that Bohm is not likely to hit a higher ceiling relative to his salary, while hoping that some other teams disagree. Or, alternately, several teams have a Bohm-shaped, $8.1 million hole whereas the Phillies think they can fill that another way.

[julio]

But I think they are both probably 105-110 OPS+ guys, best-case, and Nick is still probably the higher-SLG player (again, dramatically so from June 1 on last year).

If the two of them have similar OPS+ (and similar OPS, given that they're with the same club), the player with the higher SLG is, as a rule, actually the lesser offensive player - because OPS (and OPS+) overvalue SLG relative to OBP (based on every detailed component analysis of player offensive stats I've ever seen). We use OPS because it's easy to calculate, and it approximates relative player value pretty well, but more complex measures of player offense make it pretty clear that it over-weights SLG and underweights OBP.