Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[Matt_Winkelman]

He inherited it as the only way out, and it has worked spectacularly. Not every deal has gone well (it is still free agency), but he got Middleton to open the purse strings and a team wandering mediocrity for the last decade has made the postseason 3 times in a row without burning the farm to the ground. The rebuild completely failed, and still they are an easy top 5 team in the sport.

[Austinfan]

It was the right strategy at the time, but it's not sustainable unless Middleton wants to blow his whole fortune.

Bohm (29) and Suarez (30) aren't going to be core players in 3 years, but trading them to overpay a 30+ year old FA for 6 or 7 years isn't the answer wither.

The good news is when DD was shuffling the roster last summer, he actually upgraded his pitcher prospects and only traded one second tier prospect (Bergolla). So he seems to be wary of moving his top prospects or hurting farm system depth.

Now if they think Sosa/Clemons/Kennedy and eventually Kemp can give them something similar to Bohm, but I can't see more than 1-2 WAR, so that strategy implies the expectation that Bohm will regress.

Trading Ranger raises a similar issue, while his durability in in question, you're then relying on Painter and Walker to fill out #4 and #5, So there would have to be a lot of shuffling.

[zambonir]

Right, he inherited a franchise that had no prospects or players. As did Klentak, who started acquiring the FAs after Ruben's rebuild deals all failed (even if he screwed up some other stuff like Crawford/Kingery. Santana and Arrieta I don't blame him for because clearly Middleton wasn't willing to have one more tank year).

[zambonir]

It was the right strategy at the time, but it's not sustainable unless Middleton wants to blow his whole fortune.

Not sure you realize just how rich he actually is, even if he's not nearly as rich as Cohen.

Of course there's a limit. But if they are going to blow past the next CBT tier the one after that only costs money.

The real point of demarcation is next year with JT and Schwarber. Unfortunately there's still not a replacement for either of them. As much as things have gotten better it's really spectacular just how badly the 2015-2017 classes failed when that was supposed to be their time to emulate the Astros and the Cubs. I'm not sure that's Klentak's fault either (but it's definitely MacPhail's and Gillick's and Almaraz's).

[Austinfan]

I think both Schwarber and JT will get less money on short-term deals b/c at that age they're not going to see a big money 5 year deal. JT will have to accept playing 100 games a year and Schwarber might be a platoon candidate in a couple years. So don't think these two extensions will break the bank.

[zambonir]

They won't, and I think it's probably a pretty good idea to bring back both merely for the lack of better options (which is unfortunate). But Chooch and Chase weren't that expensive or long-term in 2013, and yet, those deals were utterly unnecessary in retrospect.

The difference is this team can't actually break the bank. They can afford it. Nobody who owns or runs the Phillies is stupid enough to think Bryce and Trea and probably not even both of the pitchers are going to be worth their contracts at the back end. All teams know that's the price of doing business. But this team - unlike the team when Monty ran things - is prepared to eat that $ and spend on top of it, not eat it and bring in a bunch of Delmon Young and Trevor Williams types.

And of course if JT is as good as Chooch was an for the most part as an older player that would be great. And DHs age better than outfielders.

[Taudawg]

Garrett Stubbs reportedly signs split contract – Phillies Nation

We probably knew this to be the case.

[saycheese]

I would agree to a point on JT no replacement although in the short burst last year Marchan showed he was capable. The question with Marchan is he does get hurt quite a bit. The next tier Rickets and Dissin both have to show they can hit. They could look to acquire a catcher elsewhere.

Boston is looking to acquire a left handed starter. If the Phillies get Crochet maybe that is where they deal Ranger. They have Teel knocking on the door in AAA and they also have 28yr old Connor Wong. Would they part with Teel for Ranger, maybe.

Seattle is said to be looking at Alec Bohm, maybe they get a Harry Ford back in that deal.

As far as the DH position goes. I don't think you fill it with one player. I think its a combo of Harper, Turner, Casty. With guys like Sosa, Clemens , Wilson etc (if they are still here) filling in playing the field. Will they hit 40 home runs no. But they may keep Harper, Turner and Casty fresher throughout the season. So when we do get to the playoffs we don't look old and slow. They could also just sign a DH. I think Schwarber is going to get another 4yr 80-100 mill deal. Even at his age, as a DH he could hit like this for a few more years.

[zambonir]

Man, I know it still beats working, but it's tough to be a fringe major leaguer with minimal service time. I would have thought he'd at least get seven figures this year, especially since it's not guaranteed anyway. He made $850K last year, new deal is $925.

And yeah Stubbs' signing was announced five days ago, the terms just hadn't come out.

[andyb]

It was the right strategy at the time, but it's not sustainable unless Middleton wants to blow his whole fortune.

It is more sustainable than you think. And I would certainly question the last part of it. I am guessing Middleton has made a real world profit (not the same thing as paper profit) every single year he has owned the team. There are so many tax benefits and tricks that he makes money even when the team loses money.

And remember the big picture. Life is good for billionaires with tax cuts and little regulation which will only decrease in the Trump administration. Most billionaires out there are making more in capital gains and interest than they might lose in a silly game like baseball. Guessing Middleton's net worth is far higher than it was 10 years ago. He wants to win. That is a good thing. Nobody is worried about him losing money.

[Taudawg]

As far as the DH position goes. I don't think you fill it with one player. I think its a combo of Harper, Turner, Casty. With guys like Sosa, Clemens , Wilson etc (if they are still here) filling in playing the field. Will they hit 40 home runs no. But they may keep Harper, Turner and Casty fresher throughout the season. So when we do get to the playoffs we don't look old and slow. They could also just sign a DH. I think Schwarber is going to get another 4yr 80-100 mill deal. Even at his age, as a DH he could hit like this for a few more years.

Only 4 players qualified as full-time, full season DH - Ohtani, Ozuna, Schwarber and McCutchen. Next offseason, QO Schwarber and if he accepts, great. If he doesn't accept, Casty gets most of his ABs there in 2026. I have nothing against having a full-time DH. A team can obviously win a World Series with one. The problem is having multiple players in defensive roles who should be at DH. Resigning Schwarber (and I'm a big fan) would be a mistake.

[VoteForKalas]

He inherited it as the only way out, and it has worked spectacularly. Not every deal has gone well (it is still free agency), but he got Middleton to open the purse strings and a team wandering mediocrity for the last decade has made the postseason 3 times in a row without burning the farm to the ground. The rebuild completely failed, and still they are an easy top 5 team in the sport.

I misunderstood what Z meant DD inherited when he took the job. I thought he meant he inherited the FA structure of the team when, in fact, he built that structure here. What Z really meant was DD inherited a weak farm system with little prospects and thus needed to go the FA route to build the team.

[VoteForKalas]

Right, he inherited a franchise that had no prospects or players. As did Klentak, who started acquiring the FAs after Ruben's rebuild deals all failed (even if he screwed up some other stuff like Crawford/Kingery. Santana and Arrieta I don't blame him for because clearly Middleton wasn't willing to have one more tank year).

Apologies, I misunderstood your statement of what DD inherited when he took the job.

[EDmuch]

I am kind of intrigued by the idea of moving Harper to LF and signing Walker to play first base.

[allentown]

Not me. His age 34 season and beyond? We don't need to add another elderly, declining player, about to become a DH. His WAR over the past 3 years: 5.0, 3.8, 2.6. Strikes me as a trend. If, at some point in season, Harper has to stop playing OF, then we can't even fit all of our DHs in the lineup. If we add a hitter, apart from PH, I'd set max age at 31 and want a guy who can actually play OF.

[zambonir]

Even with Walker's age he probably has a couple of years left as a 2 WAR player because he's so good defensively too. But yeah, probably not so good that you have to have him at 1B.

The article by Lauber today pretty much made the case for moving Bryce but then said, nope, not gonna happen and abandoned it to talk about Profar and O'Neil and Conforto.

But I assume Bryce would go back to RF if he went back. Nick was never even supposed to play there (he was going to share both LF and DH with Schwarber before all the injuries changed things, over two seasons really.)

I reckon they will trade Bohm before they sign any FA bat. And they would rather get a younger player too thus the trade focus over free agents. But we'll see what they can really do.

[Austinfan]

Given Harper's age and his declining range in the OF why would you move him back there?
On the other hand, he still has short area quickness and agility and with time could be an above average fielding 1B.

They're better off sticking with Crawford, Ricones and the young OFs in A ball.
Replacing Castellanos with someone with range would certainly help the pitching staff.

[xyzabc25]

Keep Harp at 1B. I'd like to move on from Casty without expecting much in return. Add an impact OF. My top candidates are trade for RF Kyle Tucker (for Bohm if Bregman leaves) or trade for CF Luis Robert Jr who probably can be had for two top 3--10 prospects. Final idea is LF Free Agent Tyler O'Neil BOS on a 2- or 3 year-deal. I acknowledge there are health issue with Robert and O'Neil and would need an OK from team MDs. We need ab OF providing more impact.

[zambonir]

with time could be an above average fielding 1B.

He was +5, tied for fifth best in MLB in defensive runs saved among 1B. And a Gold Glove finalist (as much as that might be driven by brand name).

I was prepared to argue that he probably can't get any better (age will outpace experience) but given that Santana was still third on that list (with Walker right between him and Harper) maybe he can, and putting him back in the OF would really undo the progress they've made there defensively (also accelerated by the seeming commitment to Marsh in CF). You might do it for Freddie Freeman (who has not aged well defensively) or the next Matt Olson (if you could find him) but not Alonso or Walker.

New fan trade proposal in Bowden's mailbag yesterday:

Trade proposal: Phillies send Mick Abel, Justin Crawford, and Taijuan Walker to St. Louis for Ryan Helsley and Nolan Arenado.

I reckon the Phillies would still have to throw in one more piece. Or maybe they could just pay Walker's salary (instead of using it to offset Arenado). Probably no reason for the Cards to deal those two guys together.

What’s next in MLB free agency? Bowden on Soto, Burnes, Adames, Santander and...

[bkeich]

Keep Harp at 1B. I'd like to move on from Casty without expecting much in return. Add an impact OF. My top candidates are trade for RF Kyle Tucker (for Bohm if Bregman leaves) or trade for CF Luis Robert Jr who probably can be had for two top 3--10 prospects. Final idea is LF Free Agent Tyler O'Neil BOS on a 2- or 3 year-deal. I acknowledge there are health issue with Robert and O'Neil and would need an OK from team MDs. We need ab OF providing more impact.

It isn’t a question of not getting much for Castellanos, it is what do you have to give with him to get a box of balls in return. He has significant negative value, he is an average hitter with almost legendary bad defense and a pretty big contract. We would have to include a pretty good prospect to get someone to take him off our hands, and it just isn’t worth it.

The problem is we HAVE to play him in the field because of Schwarber. It would have been nice if we could hide one of them at 1B, but Harper’s back makes that a bad idea.