Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[fish]

One suggests the Phillies would trade Crawford, Bohm, Abel and Tait to get Crochet (with Bohm going to the Mariners for even more players going to Chicago.

For that price I’d expand it to include Rojas and get back Robert and another Moises Chase.

[gmwannabe]

Way, way too much for a one year wonder. he could be another great one, but you are banking on that. Fish is correct. if this is the case then the phils get either Grant Taylor or Keener back as well.
gm

[zambonir]

For that price I'm not sure the Sox shouldn't just include Robert with no other players from the Phillies (he wound up having a terrible year).

The MLBTR piece posted above certainly sums up the case for trading Bohm in just baseball terms. The question remains do you think he can actually repeat or improve on 2024 or was this his peak (or an outlier)? There's also the question of the injury.

On top of that, his performance has been more good than great. To this point in his career, he has a batting line of .277/.327/.416. That translates to a 103 wRC+, indicating he’s been 3% better than the league average hitter. He did have a 115 wRC+ in 2024, but in lopsided fashion, with a 128 in the first half and a 90 in the second. Also, most of his damage has been done with the platoon advantage. He has a career 135 wRC+ against lefties in his career but a subpar 91 wRC+ against righties.

Defensively, he hasn’t been great overall, though he has shown signs of improvement. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a grade of -46 over the first four years of his career but then had him at league average in 2024. Outs Above Average had Bohm in negative territory from 2020 to 2022 but slightly better than par in the past two years.

Overall, he’s been a useful player but something below a star, and either Bregman or Adames could be seen as a clear upgrade.

Though, at the same time, those two guys are not guaranteed to be the same or better as their best going forward either

[Aquapong]

I'm not sure it makes sense to keep adding 30+ vets on long term deals to our team. We already have 3 potential albatross deals on the books.

[Taudawg]

Onley was on MLB radio Leadoff Spot this morning. It sounds as though he sees the Phillies as the frontrunner, or at least most aggressive, for Crochet. Probably 10 teams interested, with Red Sox and Orioles among the teams that match up best, but those two haven't decided if they want to deal prospects. Braves also very aggressive, but don't have the farm system they once did.

Mentioned Boras/Bregman are seeking a 300 mil deal, which Buster, Steve and Eduardo didn't think possible. Likely Bregman gets an equivalent deal to Chapman.

[saycheese]

"> Overall, he’s been a useful player but something below a star, and either Bregman or Adames could be seen as a clear upgrade.

Though, at the same time, those two guys are not guaranteed to be the same or better as their best going forward either"

I would not say either is a clear upgrade. Especially when you add in the monetary factor to it. Both are going to get in the 20-30 mill range and neither is a sure thing to be an upgrade. There is an opportunity cost to both of those players that say they are not clear upgrades. What if we keep Bohm use the money to sign a closer and another reliever or heck they could even get a solid starting pitcher for that money. There is more to this than just the stats.

Adames is 29 and is a Shortstop there is no guarantee he can play third. You would assume he could but no guarantee. He is a streaky player who does strikeout quite a bit. Is he worth 20 mill more per year than Bohm for this year on a long term contract, plus Losing draft picks and international money is a risk here. Possibly but its a risk and loss of opportunity cost.

Bregman is 30 going to play at 31 next year. Is pretty far removed from his best year in 2019. He is a solid player at this point in his career, but other than HR I would not say he is a clear upgrade to Bohm. In fact I would say they are on par. Add in the fact he is going to make around 20 mill more per year on a long term deal, plus the loss of drafts picks and international money. I don't think this is a slam dunk

I would say Bohm plus the opportunity cost for another year is a better option that either player. I also don't have a problem with a player showing emotion. Never have. Larry Bowa was as fiery as they come. We once dealt him because of his emotions and wanting to change things up and we gave away a HOF player in Sandburg to do it.

I personally think the time to trade Bohm is next year . That gives us another year of Miller progressing in the minors and also Otto Kemp. The solution comes from within and then Bohm is dealt to sure up another area vs creating another hole that we have to get desperate to fill by overpaying on the FA market.

Humble opinion.

[zambonir]

I think they both are pretty clearly better players, just not sure how much better, or how much of that is going forward rather than looking back.

But it's not Bohm vs. Adames or Bregman, it's the overall sequence of moves. They are going to spend the money on a closer and a bigger caliber OF if it's not a 3B. If it is a 3B the OF upgrade doesn't have to be as dramatic maybe. I am not dying to see them sign a QO FA or bust the CBT either but assuming the general reporting has been accurate, the Phillies do not share our concern.

And the same goes for Bohm. Whether it's his maturity or the fact that they might just believe he's 105-110 OPS+ player with poor defense instead of a 120 OPS+ player with neutral defense, we know he's very available. Which still doesn't mean he's gone.

[saycheese]

Do we really know if he is available? You can assume based upon media reports but honestly DD holds things so close to the vest who knows. I will say this the Media tries to read between the lines all the time. Oh Bohm was benched, DD says we might have to give up a good player to get another good player. So they assume its Bohm. If they trade Bohm they spend money so they have to be in on Bregman. Its just snowballs.
Other Teams also tend to check in on players like that. If your DD you are going to listen on just about anyone and he should. Ruben Amaro talked about this many times.

We can agree to disagree on the the other two are clearly better than Bohm. As you said if they are better you are not sure how much. I think based on age, positional switch etc they are at best on par which each other, then add in lost opportunity cost it just makes Bohm the better fit for now.

[zambonir]

The media reports have been pretty solid. Buster Olney's a real reporter not a guy who floats rumors as favors. "What I'm hearing from other teams is 'Yeah, he's gonna be traded.' Like he's out there a bunch," was Olney's comment. And @Matt_Winkelman has also suggested so.

[Taudawg]

Matt Gelb has mentioned Phillies as listening on Bohm multiple times.

[zambonir]

They should be listening on anyone besides Harper. With Bohm, they're talking.

[saycheese]

Exactly, that is what this time of the year is about. Listening on anything. Listening and he will be traded are two different things. Buster is usually pretty good. So is Gelb. I will say even those guys are fed bad info at times to. I

[Matt_Winkelman]

It is completely universal across all channels that the Phillies are actively looking to move Alec Bohm, they have also made Bohm available in the past. I get being skeptical, but them shopping him is about as solid as information gets. They also are not looking to dump him for nothing, they view him as a way to change up the mix of their team with a player that should have value. If there is not a good market for him, then they can bring him back. All of this is really logical if they don't want to just run the same lineup back. There are not really center fielders in free agency or trade, which for now has them looking at sticking with Marsh and Rojas in center and probably upgrading left field in some way. That really leaves Bohm and Ranger Suarez as ways to make change. I don't think they feel they need to move Suarez at all costs either, but with Wheeler, Nola, and Sanchez locked up long term and Painter coming, they are likely not feeling like they need to give Suarez his big next contract. They are trying to reshape things when they already have a full roster, and it is a tight needle to thread, but otherwise it is running it back.

[zambonir]

Actively shopping him and "he will be traded" are also two different things. But still more than listening. I do think - and Matt's post seems to confirm - it has very little to do with the fact that he's thrown his helmet a few times and is solely about trying to make a good deal for an above-average player at the right time (for both his value and what the team can do to improve).

[Austinfan]

Problem is this team is getting old, though Bohm isn't young either, but that's why I'm wary of trading the top prospects - in the next 2-3 years they need to add starter 25 and under, as well as a couple SPs.

Aging curves are averages, but if you have 5 starters over 30, aging curves suggests cumulatively their production will decline each season going forward. Eventually it'll be 2012 all over again without young blood.

[saycheese]

This makes more sense. The are listening on him like most players .Makes sense. They are not looking to dump him is key. Because these rumors are looking to dump him rumors. Appreciate you weighing in.

[zambonir]

Eventually it'll be 2012 all over again without young blood

Except the 2012 ownership didn't want to spend any money buying players for the holes they couldn't fill and even had to trade Pence to get under the tax. Obviously there have to be young cheap players, and somewhere along the way there will probably be one or even several years of losing seasons, but when it gets to the point where Nola or Wheeler can't pitch (or pitch well) or Harper's just a platoon DH, they'll still be giving out big contracts to a new crop of 29 year-olds if they have to.

Dombrowki's strength has been delivering this team an NL pennant and a NL East title without trading away too many players or compromisng too much draft capital. He'll keep walking that line. At the same time there are some assets he may have held too long.

[allentown]

DD has added high-cost FAs who have mostly been a big help in the present, but the ones with long contracts -- even Harper and Turner, will hurt in the future. Have DD's trades really been all that special. We seem to fairly consistently under-perform at trade deadline. Every GM has hits and misses in trades. My gut feel is that DD isn't in top half of contending team GMs in the average success of his trades. This remains a team built upon FA signings.

[zambonir]

I don't think deadline deals are really that important for any GM. But they are more important if they help you make the playoffs or win a division. In that sense his 2022 was a smashing success. Marsh improved the team greatly and Robertson and Thor also made a difference on a team that could have missed the playoffs entirely and needed both of them to get to the World Series. All 2024 proves, I think, is that you can't win a playoff series with your deadline deals (and who knows is more/better deals in 2023 would have helped). And that it's always risky to overpay for relief pitching (but he didn't overpay for Soto and then used him to replace what he gave away for Estevez).

He hasn't really made any major off-season deals. His biggest major league trade besides Soto was Alvarado. While being built on FAs is obviously not long-term sustainable, it is what he inherited, and he has been careful to preserve what little he had (for the most part). Trying to trade Bohm or Suarez instead of Crawford or Miller or Painter or Abel is also about protecting the farm. We shall see.

[VoteForKalas]

Inherited?

He was the one who signed Turner, Casty and Schwarber. He also exrended JT along with Wheeler and Nola. And signed Walker.