Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[Matt_Winkelman]

McMillon outrighted, so 39.

I thought Cabrera had a chance to slip through, but I think he is a better prospect than Castellano and I had him as a guy they couldn't lose if they knew another team coveted him. I think Castellano has a mild chance to be taken and stick, but he isn't a lock. I personally might have protected both, but I have less information and I am more conservative on the protection side.

[zambonir]

I feel like the Phillies have been pretty good at this (and over multiple regimes too). Looks like no Phillies player has even been drafted in the major league phase since Carlos Tocci in 2017. Hoby Milner was returned in 2016 and Seth Rosin in 2014.

And of course those 40-man spots are more valued for major-league now than ever.

[Aquapong]

Bigger rosters, 3 batter minimums, and universal dh seems to have made finding a good rule 5 pick contributor a thing of the past.

[Austinfan]

RH SPs with low 90s stuff are pretty fungible.

He may turn out to be a decent ML starter down the road, but Castellano will be 24 with little potential left for additional velocity at this point. You're probably looking at a 5th/6th starter as his ceiling in 2-3 years.

He only had 8 starts at AA, and didn't show much out of the pen in 2023, so he's a long shot to be taken, he's not going to start in the majors and probably has little value as a RP. You'd have to stash him for a year, then give him a season in AAA to polish his stuff, so maybe he starts for you at 26 or 27 years old.

[andyb]

I am more conservative on the protection side.

With the difficulty in hiding somebody in the bullpen these days I think I tend to be aggressive about not protecting players if at all possible. If they don't have obvious high end stuff, the extra year of options when they are ready can become important. I wonder if it is easier to hide position players these days if they add value on defense and on the basepaths. Teams that don't platoon much often don't really need that last bench player (like Merrifield or Wilson for us). With so many 1-inning relief outings that last spot in the bullpen needs to pitch in more situations than blowouts.

[Matt_Winkelman]

I wouldn't say that is an accurate report on Castellano right now. Not saying he is a big time prospect (he will rank in the teens for me). Last year he he averaged about 94.5 mph on his 4-seam fastball (sinker about .5 mph slower) and was up to 97, and as far as I tracked it, held it pretty well. He profiles probably has a multi inning non-high leverage relievers with a #4/#5 starter ceiling. The fastball shapes aren't great, but his power curve is a good pitch. There is a chance he could immediately be someone's 6th or 7th RP right now, is it likely, no, but I think there is some immediate underselling you are doing.

[EDmuch]

I would not trade Bohm for Singer. Singer is, at best a weak No. 4 starter.

[zambonir]

I wouldn't either, it's just that Singer is known to be available. If the Phillies trade Bohm it has to result in them getting either a bat or a high-end reliever, even if that's not the direct trade.

[gmwannabe]

that's why I added a pitching prospect with Singer for the trade.

[Austinfan]

That's a little faster than I had him from various reports, though not fast enough to be effective without good movement and command. I'm not sure a curve is that effective anymore, the days of Blyleven seem to be gone.

They must not value him that highly, b/c they have 2-3 pitchers on the 40 he could replace.

[zambonir]

I think Singer is way better than Ed thinks, though obviously he had an off year in 2023. But he only makes sense if the Phillies flip Suarez for a position player (which then gets you one more year of Singer that you don't have of Suarez). Just don't think rotation depth is a priority for the Phillies.

Also don't know that Bohm is worth more than Singer. WAR-wise, not really. They really are kind of an equal swap in terms of age, contract and base value. Singer may even be worth more because pitching is more scarce.

[Matt_Winkelman]

This is not arguing your points, just wanted to insert some color around Castellano. When I say curveball, I am not talking a big looping curveball, it averaged about 81.5 mph with sharp bite. It is more in line (but not necessarily the same) as what Charlie Morton or Zack Wheeler throws in terms of velocity band.

I don't think they value him less than some pitchers on the 40 man roster, they just are playing the cat and mouse game of keeping the 40 man roster as clean as they can.

[Austinfan]

Morton is a dirty word to me. Talk about the one they let get away!
Probably more bad timing than anything else.
But he did have a wicked curve.

[andyb]

Did not see this posted earlier, but it clearly looks like the Phillies are managing their 40-man roster to give themselves multiple 5th starter options until Painter is ready by maybe June. If they are only going to get 100 major league innings out of Painter they might as well make it the last 16-18 rotation starts for the year, assuming he'll need about 20 minor league innings before that.

I still expect them to sign a Turnbull type as well, maybe even Turnbull himself who did show the ability to pitch out of the bullpen last season and the Phillies are newly realizing the value of multi-inning relievers who are not purely mop up guys.

Phillies’ quest for Andrew Painter placeholder takes shape as club makes 40-man...

[andyb]

I would not put much (if any) stock in it, but this guy has us signing Willy Adames (8/192) and Tanner Scott (4/60) but not Hoffman (3/33). I think I prefer Hoffman at that price. Adames would require a Bohm trade obviously, though I just don't see him as an 8-year fit with Miller looming.

Top 20 MLB Free Agents With Contract and Team Predictions

[zambonir]

I missed this at the time (though I noticed two Good Phight stories today reacting to it).

"What I'm hearing from other teams is 'Yeah, he's gonna be traded.' Like he's out there a bunch. And they say the Phillies have been around long enough to know that they could squash that if they wanted to. They could go out, they could whisper to the reporters 'Yeah, Bohm's not really available.' They're not doing that. So the assumption with other teams [is] that Bohm is gonna be traded."

Opposing Teams Reportedly Believe Alec Bohm ‘Is Gonna Be Traded’ | OnPattison

[Austinfan]

I think it's more a matter of floating a balloon and see what people are willing to offer.
I mean what's Plan B if they trade Bohm.
Unless they think Kemp/Kennedy/Clemons are able to play 3B, they're left with Sosa then no one on the bench.

[zambonir]

Well obviously there has to be some kind of plan B. One (however unlikely) was just posted by Andy above. Same would go for Bregman. But that doesn't mean there aren't other FA or trade or position swap options.

While I don't think this means much either, Kelly pointed out that they made Castellanos available last year, found out within 24 hours that there was no deal to be made and told the press as much. Obviously Bohm is a much more attractive player and can stay in play indefinitely. But they could also cool off the rumor mill in the press if they didn't want the action.

[Matt_Winkelman]

Everything I have heard is that Bohm is very likely to be traded and I would postulate that the reason you aren't hearing the second step is that it depends on what happens in a Bohm trade. If they trade him for a young, controllable SP, then you will start hearing Ranger Suarez rumors. If he is traded for an outfielder than you probably hear something around Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas. Because they have a full team right now outside of the bullpen, each move is going to drive the next move and so on.

[zambonir]

Anyway, clearly they are going to just let Sosa and Clemens play 3B after they sign Soto