Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[Jazzhead]

I think that Hays could be an outstanding weak-side platoon player with Marsh in left field, and even at a price of $6-7 million in arbitration that's still a relative bargain when you consider that the strong side of the platoon, Marsh, is young and will make less than that.

I think, though, that the Phils need to commit to the platoon and not try to overuse Hays or Marsh against same side pitching in the hope they'll develop into more complete hitters. Let them both do their thing and produce solid combined left field numbers at a cost of less than $12 million. For next year, with guys like Crawford coming through the pipeline, that should be sufficient to contend while freeing up resources that can be applied to pitching.

[Taudawg]

I would not offer arbitration to Hays, but if he would sign a 2yr deal at a lower rate with second year as team option (with buyout), I could go for that. If Schwarber leaves after 2025, Casty moves to DH, and it provides a OF hedge for 2026. Phillies don't have much on the way in terms of corner OF and once again the 26-27 FA market offers little. Rincones might be a solution, yet his numbers in the minors show a heavy RH/LH split.

[zambonir]

But it just seems like the reality is that it is Rojas who is Marsh's platoon partner, in CF. I don't love the defensive downgrade or the fact that neither player will get a chance to improve in that scenario (Marsh won't face LHP and Rojas will play a lot less), but if in fact the lesson of last season is that the Phillies need one more impact bat (and a more consistent impact bat) as well as more OF production in general, LF is the only path.

If Plan B is still Marsh and a platoon in LF they'll be able to execute that after Hays in non-tendered, whether it is him or someone else as the part-time RHB.

Hays made $6.3 million last year. I'm not sure I buy that he doesn't get bumped to $7.5 or $8 million even with his reduced role/poor 2024. Or that he would get more than $4 million (perhaps on a two-year deal) on the open market.

I just don't see how the Phillies get through this off-season without making some kind of splash. They are feeling the pressure, both from the teams below them in the NL East and from the more casual fan base and the media. They also don't want to get off to another slow start that feels like a continuation of the second half or the Mets series, even if we can point to '22 and '23 and say it's better to finish hot than start hot.

[Austinfan]

i don't know. Just upgrade #5 SP and you have a big upgrade in the regular season, though you also need insurance for Ranger, who is great when healthy but . . .

The bullpen also needs 2 arms.

They were 5th in runs scored, unless you add someone like Soto, how much would a slight improvement in the OF do in terms of moving the needle v spending on the pitching staff?

[Aquapong]

Bregman to the Phils has no credibility, imo.

Turner is not a good SS the last two years by any measure. Baseball Savant has him as 41st among SS’s in Mlb as far as arm strength. His value really comes from his bat and baserunning. Can we move him to 2B or LF? That would put less pressure on him defensively and maybe cut down his errors. Stott can at least be passable at SS.

Let Bohm ride another year. He’s improved overall every year. Yes he slumped at the end of the year, but that’s not a reason to trade him. He’s still more than reasonably priced for his production.

[Aquapong]

Non tender deadline is Friday iirc. The only real decisions are on Hays and Stubbs imo.

Hays is getting expensive for a part time LF. DD says he’s an every day player but his stats say otherwise. He so wanted to make an impact after the deadline that he was swinging out of his shoes most of the time. Wilson can do the job cheaper. If we need money for relievers, Hays is expendable imo.

Stubbs is certainly well liked in the clubhouse, but he’s not a great backup. It’s really time to see what Marchan can do. Now Stubbs does have an option and not enough time to block a demotion to AAA, but that probably wouldn’t be a popular move from an HR standpoint. It's probably best to cut him loose and grab a few retreads for depth.

[David_Criss]

Stubbs won't cost that much. I'd tender him but not guarantee him a spot. Gives DD some flexibility if someone wants Marchan as part of a trade and a better backup plan isn't available. Stubbs is 32, so can't see him playing up to his collegiate hype, but him playing regularly at AAA isn't the end of the world.

[zambonir]

Stubbs was already on a split deal last year, and still has the option. That alone has value. Plus Marchan is brittle. Anyone you replace Stubbs with, if called up, would either be lost on waivers or not that good (if they could clear). It will be a genuine competition in Clearwater unless they turn around and actually pay for a new back-up.

Whatever happens, barring a trade from last year's starters, there's barely even one bench spot open for the 26-man roster. Catcher/Sosa/Rojas (for the sake of argument calling Rojas the 4th OF behind Marsh and a new LF) locked. That leaves just one spot for a Wilson/Clemens type. Likely actually Wilson or Clemens though it all depends who the LF is too.

[andyb]

Stubbs had collegiate hype? 8th round pick so it could not have been that much. Had a good senior year, but lots of players have a good senior year against younger competition.

[zambonir]

Stubb has far exceeded what anyone might have expected when the Phillies got him. Though Austin Wynns was better last year.

[Callison]

Has anyone ever asked Turner how he feels about LF or is everybody afraid to offend him? Because if he likes the idea at all, Sosa could move to SS. IMHO, Sosa is the best IF on the Phils and Turner is the 3rd best SS. Though Sosa's past suggests he won't succeed as a starter, this move would instantly improve the Phils in the field and at the plate without spending another dime and so it frees up cash to spend elsewhere. If Turner has just got to play SS, OK - he's got the authority.

Backup catcher on the Phils is going to be more and more important as JT ages. Stubbs is solid defensive catcher and calls a great game but looks overmatched at the plate. Tough approach/avoidance problem - can the Phils do any better without overspending? Stubbs is economical so resources can go elsewhere. Maybe Marchan can find some health and just win the position.

[Taudawg]

The GM meetings have past. The Winter meetings can't get here soon enough. This is season of baseball disinformation -

MLB Executive Names J.T. Realmuto As Trade Candidate | OCNJ Daily

[zambonir]

Turner has publicly stated his desire to play SS for as long as he can. That doesn't mean he should, or wouldn't move if asked. Better players than him have moved from SS to 3B or RF to 1B and so on. But moving Turner to LF and moving Sosa to SS doesn't actually improve the offense in any way. Probably makes them worse, in fact, because Sosa won't actually succeed offensively with that much playing time. And you still haven't added another bat (which you can only do by signing an OF, barring any trades).

TD, "random predictions by anonymous executives" aren't disinformation. Disinformation would be if someone claimed the Phillies were actually holding trade talks about JT (or Bohm, though that might still be true). It's just entertainment.

But at least with the Bohm stuff there was a clear, if far-fetched replacement for him at 3B proposed. Who would the Phillies go with at catcher?

Also, I did not realize On Pattison was part of a dinky local Jersey Shore/Philly suburbs newspaper chain. Or that Tim Kelly actually left Phillies Nation to do it. He's all right, even though most of what he does is this sort of aggregation.

[Austinfan]

It doesn't make sense to trade someone (Bohm) without a replacement lined up.
A year from now when Miller is ready . . .

And trading JT and go with Marchan/Stubbs?
More likely they extend JT after next season (I doubt he wants to hit the FA market which won't be lucrative at his age and move his family) to buy time for Tait.

[Taudawg]

TD, "random predictions by anonymous executives" aren't disinformation. Disinformation would be if someone claimed the Phillies were actually holding trade talks about JT (or Bohm, though that might still be true). It's just entertainment.

My post was for entertainment purposes, jeez. Thanks for explaining disinformation though. Tough crowd

[saycheese]

Seems to me with the news today that the Phillies want to talk to Soto that they are tipping their toes in the water in a lot of areas. There offseason plan seems fluid which is good in my opinion. We are going to hear about names we wouldn't think they would deal and in most case probably will not deal. I would look in between these names to find out who DD will actually deal. It rarely comes out who he is trading until it actually happens with him.

As far as JT goes there are two catchers who are in between Tait and JT right now. That would be Marchan who I believe will be the backup catcher next year and probably play a little more than most backup catchers do. His hit tool is finally developing he was always good defensively. Another player that is not talked about much but should be is Jordan Dissin. He could catch defensively in the majors right now. If you have seen him catch you will agree. His hit tool is slower developing but he has a good eye at the plate and did drive the more with more authority I think he is probably 2 years away. Tait is more like 3-4 years away. Tait of course has the most upside out of all of them but he is only 18 years old so a lot can happen between now and when he is ready.
It would not surprise me if they used a high pick on a catcher in the draft this year to.

[zambonir]

ha, sorry. I think I was conflating your post with Aquapong's posts about Bregman not being credible as well. I was just glad the Ocean City News Daily turned out to be a reasonably legit outlet (more so than SI.com!)

At least the Soto news is credible, if still unlikely to bear fruit. I mean, Middleton has already said he doesn't mind being used as a stalking horse, and the same could easily be true of Bregman. He and Boras have always gotten along.

[gmwannabe]

I'd do Bohm for Singer as long as either Wolters or Beam are added. Bohm is worth more than one player.
gm

[Squire]

Phillies added

RHP Mick Abel
RHP Moises Chace
RHP Jean Cabrera

to the 40 man roster which I believe is a full 40

[andyb]

I guess Cabrera is a mild surprise. Matt had Eiberson Castellano as his 3rd protect. I think the reasoning was whether he thought Cabrera could stick on a major league roster now.

Here was his article from a few days ago:

2024 Phillies Rule 5 Protection Preview