Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[zambonir]

I disagree that he shouldn't carry the qualifying offer. Have you seen the list of the other players who have it? And he's been over 4.0 WAR for the past three seasons. Only Harper did that on the Phillies in 2024. Only Stott (surprise!) in 2023. Only JT (a whopping 6.6) in 2022. Obviously Harper's injuries affected his those other years.

It could just as easily be Suarez or Marsh (still both very valuable players) as Bohm. It's just that anything is possible, is all.

[andyb]

But that's why I'd trade Sosa, a lot of teams probably project him as a starting SS, which should have as much or more value as Bohm.

That is just not true. He'll be valued as a good utility infielder. We got him for a reliever we could not fit on the 40-man roster. Now we have much less years of control and a higher arbitration salary to offer. We are just not going to get much for a guy that few would project to be a good starter. His history is to get a little exposed over extended playing time too.

Trea Turner got hurt on May 3. Sosa had a 1.077 OPS through May 28. Then until Turner returned after June 16 it was .571. Yes that is cherry-picking, but his last 2 seasons have been .719 and .734. I suspect most teams think that would be sub-700 if he did not have platoon split advantages (635/861 last year).

He is a good player that I want on the team. He just is not going to get you much in a trade when he'll get paid something like $3 and $5 million the next couple of years.

[Austinfan]

He's a plus fielder. Only 21 SS had WAR > 2.0 last season.
He's probably better than the bottom 10 starters around the league.
Over his career, 1100 PA, 6.3 WAR. While he hasn't been a starter, he's has seasons of 326, 300, 274 PA, so his career RC+ of 96 looks sustainable.

For a team that's looking for a 1-2 year patch, Sosa has real value,

[andyb]

He's a plus fielder. Only 21 SS had WAR > 2.0 last season.

A big chunk of that value was at 2B last year. He is a decent SS, maybe a tick better than Turner defensively these days but it is likely neither is what scouts would term plus. The SSS stats from last year are much more mediocre.

Bottom line though is most scouts do NOT see him as starting quality except perhaps as the short side of platoon. That will drive his trade value which is minimal given the arbitration raises. And not platooning would diminish his offensive stats which are probably not sustainable given they have been built through a disproportionate amount of time against left-handed pitching.

I am not saying he could not be a starter. Yes he might be one of the bottom 10 starting SS in the league. There just is not much trade value in that. People see more upside in Bohm (than I do certainly because of the lack of faith in his defense). So potentially trade him while that upside has value.

[zambonir]

He probably gets you exactly what the Phillies gave up for him. A JoJo Romero (who was coming off his TJ and couldn't help the Phillies that season, but not without value). Or a Gregory Soto. Or an Enyel De Los Santos.

[Austinfan]

He'll have more value than that b/c he has a track record after the last two seasons.

Not saying you'd get a huge return, but I doubt you'd get a huge return for Bohm either, and then you'd have to play Sosa at 3B (unless you spend a lot of money for a FA, which makes trading Bohm kinda stupid with Miller in the wings). Bohm's 3.5 WAR is based on him remaining an average fielder, and that his second half fall off won't be repeated.

Bohm 1st half RC+ 128, 2nd half RC+ 96.
Bohm also has a L/R split, so replacing him with Sosa wouldn't be that big of a change.

[zambonir]

If the Phillies really do trade Bohm there are a lot of things that could happen besides Bregman. Including other FAs (even guys whose primary position has been SS or 2B), moving Turner (unlikely I realize) or finding a LHB to play with Sosa. But if you are trading Bohm (or Suarez) you are trying to get a starting OF or a closer. Sosa is not going to get you either of those things. He might get you one prospect (then again Soto got the Phillies two, so maybe two).

[allentown]

I was definitely exaggerating a little but MLBTR says 7/182, Athletic 7/185.5. And my bet is if the Phillies really did it they'd go longer, so you might get the AAV down from 25-26 to 20-22, but it would be 8 or 9 years.

His defense may not be great but you could say the same about our $300 million/11-year shortstop.

Turner on the deal he got was an error. To do this deal with Bregman would be an even bigger mistake. He is too old for that many years. Is he actually better than Bohm going forward? Getting even older is the last thing the Phillies need to do.

[andyb]

Turner is not going to move until we get a better shortstop. And athletically he still should be good for a couple more years at SS if needed. Right now the wait is for Miller or potentially Caba. Miller is very likely to be a good major league hitter but still questionable as to whether he'll be better defensively at SS than Turner. Caba is probably a better SS defensively but has a long way to go till he is a major league hitter.

It makes little sense to move Turner now with those questions with a 1-4 year timeframe still hanging.

[zambonir]

I think he's definitely better than Bohm going forward but that doesn't mean I'd want either of them in 2028.

But I think the reality is, the Phillies are not going to cease spending, nor will they get appreciably younger, for at least the next 2-3 years. Maybe longer depending what they do about JT and Schwarber. But they have the money, and the money is still a youth-preserving alternative to trying to do what the Braves have been able to (by getting Olson and Murphy) or by making a major deadline deal, which costs you prospect depth the Phillies still don't have.

They always said Middleton wanted to be another Steinbrenner.

[Austinfan]

You have to be judicious with your spending, for one thing, you can load up on albatross contracts that block prospects and are hard to move without including prospects in the deal.

Phillies do not need another contract that might be a disaster in three years, it's not like Bregman over Bohm will move the needle very far - a good RP would have more value to this team on the margin.

Reason I'd move Sosa this year and Bohm next year is I'm not paying to keep them so get some value before they hit free agency. Same with Marsh if young OFs pan out.

It's one thing to sink money into elite players like Harper or Wheeler, but when you're paying Castellanos $25M for barely above replacement level play, or Walker $18M, you're wasting resources.

[zambonir]

Fortunately Castellanos only makes $20 million

When you spend that kind of money your mistakes hurt more, for sure. But these aren't the Giles/Monty Phillies. Where this team is now is where the 2011-2013 teams could have been if money was no object. They made a mistake with Howard (long before that) and bringing back as many guys as they did, but the way the current owner operates, they would have been able to keep Werth, or gone from 2012 to 2013 keeping Pence and even re-signing Vic (who had a few good years left and won a ring), while also getting a better pitcher than Burnett (and maybe even a second one) to replace Halladay and Lee despite still paying them.

I'm not rooting for them to do this. But if this front office feels like they can't truly compete with/keep up with the Dodgers, a suddenly rejuvenated and once again cash-rich Mets and a healthy Braves roster, something more aggressive, whether in trade or with the checkbook, seems likely.

[Taudawg]

As long as we are throwing spaghetti against the wall Get J.T. a LF glove and he can be Marsh's platoon partner against lefties. He's back behind the plate for righties. Marchan against lefties and a few righties. J.T. was drafted as a shortstop and his sprint speed remains well above average - He could be ok out there. Keep Bohm in this scenario.

[zambonir]

Spaghetti disclaimer aside, how does that improve the line-up? Or JT? He needs to just rest when he's not catching, and LF would be harder on him than 1B or DH. I doubt Marchan is good enough or durable enough to carry that heavier load either. It will be sufficient if he can catch 60 games without being hurt and replaced by a Stubbs call-up (assuming those are still the guys).

That also leaves Rojas playing everyday in CF which doesn't seem to be the plan either.

The theoretical appeal of the Bregman scenario is that you have added a big enough bat and defensive upgrade over Bohm at 3B to just run it back without a major OF addition (you can find another Hays type rather than an everyday pricier FA). But even that presumes that Bregman has a few 120 OPS+ years left in him, and that Bohm (who has never had one) is no better than he was this year. An expensive supposition to make, possibly along the same lines as thinking Nick Castellanos could still be what he was in his 20s.

[Taudawg]

It wasn't a serious suggestion, hence the spaghetti. Jumping around a bit here -

I don't think the Phillies will sign Bregman. The rumors of the Phillies involvement are not credible. Boras did get burned last year, but that was with pitchers. Bregman will likely wait until Soto signs, leaving him as the best position player on the market along with several contenders still needing bats and a 3B. He may exceed 7/182 as a result. This is a very thin position player FA market.

Sosa is a backup, and a big maybe as a starter on a non-contending team. Phillies won't get much in return and the salary relief is negligible. Keep him unless a trade partner proves me wrong.

There is enough smoke around Bohm to think the Phillies are serious about moving him. While I would like to move on from him, now is probably the wrong time. If the Phillies trade him without acquiring a replacement first, they put themselves in a corner with any trade partners or potential FA. They'd have to overpay to fix the situation or go into 2025 with Weston Wilson or Buddy Kennedy at 3b.

If the Phillies are very intent on trading Bohm to fix something else, perhaps the Cards will pay down a bunch of Arenado's contract to move him. I'd much rather have a 3 year obligation than 7 years for Bregman.

[Jazzhead]

I appreciate that Middleton is apparently prepared to spend more notwithstanding the tax implications, but I can't believe that signing Bregman at $30 million-plus per season is the best use of that money. Heck, Bohm was an All-Star last year and is four years younger than Bregman. I favor using any such mad money to sign or trade for the best starter available, especially one that goes deep into games (Framber Valdez?) Signing one or two relievers wouldn't be a bad idea either.

As for the outfield, I hope the Phils don't give up on Austin Hays prematurely. They traded a valuable asset to acquire him, and it would be foolish IMO to non-tender him when his poor initial impression was largely the result of injury. I like his tools and his hustle, and putting him into the outfield mix with Marsh and Rojas should strengthen the team.

[fish]

I hope the Phils don't give up on Austin Hays prematurely.

The problem with Hays is contract. He’s got to be pretty good to live up to a 6-7 million dollar deal from arbitration. Worst case is they release him in spring and only have to pay him a million. But if you know off the bat you want to change out some of the guys on the roster with an over aggressive approach this winter, he’s a good place to start if you can identify a better option.

[zambonir]

Yeah I just don't see what anyone sees in Hays at that contract number. He's just not a starter and it would be too much even if he can be a healthy weak-side platoon player. Sure, the Phillies could afford to overpay for that but then it would take up a roster spot and close off some other options. Whereas if you cut him loose and other options don't work out, he's still re-signable, and if not him, someone just as good.

The thing where you can release a guy in March, that almost never happens.

And they didn't trade a valuable asset to get him. That trade happened because both guys were seen as likely non-tender candidates. You can certainly make the case now that it was a really dumb trade and it would be good to have Seranthony back next year given they are unlikely to retain both Hoffman and Estevez. But that doesn't mean you hold on to Hays just because you made that mistake (if it was one).

[jimbomill]

Having to give up two draft picks plus international money and a rather large contract I just don't see it.

That's key for me. Also, the delta between what Bregman will be paid and what Bohm will be making, although it is not my money, is too much in the grand Cap scheme. Spend that $$$ elsewhere.

[zambonir]

I'd do it for Soto.

Other guys with QOs: Adames (either of which would probably mean trading Bohm), Teoscar, Santander (and Alonso/Walker, who would be hard to fit in).

No QOs: Profar, Tyler O'Neil, Ha-Seong Kim (if Bohm is traded guy).

And everyone on this list, either because they have previously been QO'ed or they got traded.

Alex Cobb (Guardians), Michael Conforto (Giants), Patrick Corbin (Nationals), Nathan Eovaldi (Rangers), Yasmani Grandal (Pirates), Jason Heyward (Astros), Kenley Jansen (Red Sox), Lance Lynn (Cardinals), Joc Pederson (D-backs), Martín Pérez (Padres), Marcell Ozuna (Braves), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees), Carlos Santana (Twins), Max Scherzer (Rangers), Will Smith (Royals), Blake Snell (Giants), Justin Turner (Mariners), Justin Verlander (Astros)

Matthew Boyd (Guardians), Josh Bell (D-backs), Mark Canha (Giants), Paul DeJong (Royals), Carlos Estévez (Phillies), Jack Flaherty (Dodgers), Danny Jansen (Red Sox), Jakob Junis (Reds), Yusei Kikuchi (Astros), Michael Lorenzen (Royals), Frankie Montas (Brewers), Tommy Pham (Royals), Amed Rosario (Reds), Tanner Scott (Padres), Jesse Winker (Mets)

https://www.mlb.com/news/2024-25-qualifying-offer-candidates-and-decisions