Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[dcsman]

With Soto only being 26 years old next season, is a contract of $500 million over 10 years really that bad a deal? I'm not sure if he'll want 10 years or 14 though. Ten years would theoretically allow him to get another payday towards the end of his contract.

[fish]

I'm not sure if he'll want 10 years or 14 though. Ten years would theoretically allow him to get another payday towards the end of his contract.

I’m sure he’ll have ‘outs’ peppered throughout his deal after a few years to either try to increase his deal or to relocate.

[Callison]

It will be a shock if Soto leaves the Yanks. The Yanks will let everybody bid up the price then match it and close it with some non-contractual incentive. See Judge. The Phils are not hungry enough to compete for Soto, and it looks like fool's errand anyway...but maybe the Phils could throw in a lifetime pass to the Franklin Institute... After Soto, the other FA LFs are unexciting and I hope the Phils don't buy another Merrifield/Pache/Cave. Hays is still auditioning.

Whereas Trout looks much more exciting and approachable. He might still be nearly the second best player in MLB if he's healthy.

IMHO, the lineup could be better, too. Schwarber leading off was a daring managerial statement and it's been copied elsewhere. Schwarber loves it and the Phils have been successful with it. But could they be more successful if they changed it? Bohm had some success at #2 and really doesn't belong at #4... and I think he feels it. And it would be interesting to see Schwarber at #4 and Turner at #1. But it would likely take the acq of a strong hitter, likeTrout, to make Rob shuffle it.

Phils fans, remind yourselves that the WS has the 2 best teams in MLB, possibly only because they spend like drunken sailors, but it is wrong to hope for a meteor. Let's be sportspersons. Even reluctant sportspersons.

[Austinfan]

Trout will never be healthy again. That ship done sailed.

[flyers19rw]

Never say never. He won’t be physically what he was ten years ago but no one is. The questions are could he make adjustments to his play in order to see the field on a regular basis and if he did is there anyone else that would do better than him in the lineup? I wouldn’t walk away from the idea that he could fill a valuable role on this club.

[allentown]

Yes, many might do better and he may be bound for permanent DH duty if he is to be able to get even 450 PA this year. If he DHed for us, what about Schwarber? He's incredibly expensive: 6 more years at $36 million a year. He had 1.1 WAR last year and 2.9 the year before. Both Marsh and Schwarber were better than 2.9 WAR this year. It's just bad business to gamble on Trout. Even if we lucked into a Trout rebound year this season and even if Angels covered all of this season's salary, that still leaves us on the hook for $180 mill going forward. It's a great way to doom the Phillies to half a decade of not being competitive after this season -- and far from any guarantees for this season. In the past 4 seasons, Trout had one (2022 at 6.2 WAR) where he was 3.0 WAR or better. Not entirely fair, since 2020 was a shortened season, but Trout only had 1.8 WAR, which is unspectacular even for a shortened season. Prior to that he had 8 straight seasons with never less than 6.9 WAR. That level of collapse makes him a bad gamble, even if next season is only his age 33 year.

I also wouldn't overestimate his love of all things Philadelphia. He had a chance to come to Philly and signed the extension with the Angels.

Not good baseball management to chase a faded big name for humongous $/years.

Could he make changes to his training regimen/approach to play to stay healthier and be more effective offensively? It's possible, certainly. It's not a sound bet.

[zambonir]

Certainly Trout has some games and years left to give, I'm just not sure he's an attractive or even acquireable player this time around. A more desperate and prospect-rich and less wealthy team may still give the Angels a bit too much for him in exchange for them picking up half his salary. But even then, will he be worth $17 million a year (which would still be a lot of salary for the current Phillies to add)? Would he even put up more WAR than Brandon Marsh over the next two seasons?

I can see him coming "home" in 2027 when both the Angels and his next team are picking up his salary and the Phillies have both cap room and the ability to carry another DH/LF type.

And no, we can't trade Nick for him without giving up even more prospect value (or getting less cash back from the Angels).

We still don't even know if he wants to be traded. We do know the Angels are bad at this!

[Aquapong]

I expect we’re trotting mostly the same team out there. Let’s face it, we won the division. Yes, we’re upset about how the playoffs went, but we’re not in a bad spot.

Jt and Schwarbers contracts will be up and give us money to spend. We do need more effective starting pitching depth.

[flyers19rw]

Your points are all valid. His injury history is terrible:
-torn ligament in the thumb
-calf strain
-back inflammation
-broken hamate
-torn meniscus (2X)
These caused seasons full of missed games.
Still there might be an economically reasonable way for the Phillies and Angels to get together on a deal for Trout. I could be wrong but I’d venture that the Angels would like to get him off of their books. It would cost them to do that. Them waiting for Trout to be healthy is a story that they’ve seen too often with the same sad outcome. Trout could be seeing himself as jinxed in Anaheim and needing a change of scenery.
There probably aren’t many places to which Trout would be willing to go and that might be willing to take a chance on him resuscitating his career. Philly is one. Trout in LF at 70% of what he has been would be a boost to the batting order. Although there’s a lot of money, term and medical records to examine, for me it’s worth considering.

[Philsmania]

One concern I had with signing Harper beforehand was his injury history with the Nationals. In seven seasons in Washington, he topped 118 games played in only four of them or, in other words, he missed at least 44 games in three seasons.

[dcsman]

Fair. But I can't get excited about the same team again. I mean, I'll watch and be a fan, but ultimately it seems like the definition of insanity.

You're right that $30 million comes off the books at the end of the year. However, I just looked at the 2026 free agency class and well, it seems underwhelming.

I could seriously see the Phils trying to outbid the Yankees but ultimately falling short. __

[zambonir]

Fair. But I can't get excited about the same team again. I mean, I'll watch and be a fan, but ultimately it seems like the definition of insanity.

Well, what do you want? The rotation is still locked. They will presumably sign one or the other of Hoffman/Estevez and replace the other with someone cheaper. And they will upgrade the OF somehow but there's a lot of runway between Austin Hays and Juan Soto. Somehow they got from 90 to 95 wins last year without any serious off-season additions (except a bad one).

I'm not saying I really feel great about it but it may not be insane at all to think that Bohm and Marsh can repeat their impressive WARs, Stott can get his bat back to 2023 levels (which would put him right up there with Bohm and Marsh) and Rojas can improve. Versus pouring more playing time and resources into older players. Or overreacting to the post-season vs. the whole season.

Of course Soto is a whole other thing and if you can get him I think you get him. Just don't think they can. Heck, we're lucky they even got Harper. If memory serves the Yankees sat that one out the Dodgers and Giants didn't bid at the same level, and Steve Cohen didn't exist yet.

[jimbomill]

Trout will never be healthy again

That, sadly, seems to be the case. Baseball is worse off due to that

[andyb]

He's incredibly expensive: 6 more years at $36 million a year. He had 1.1 WAR last year and 2.9 the year before.

But Trout won't be $36 million a year for anyone. The Angels would give half that salary away for nothing. And they probably take it down to $10 million a year for a few prospects. Any Trout deal would have to save face a bit with prospects and at these dollars they don't have to be top tier prospects.

The allure of Trout is that he is still young enough to get healthier and he could be an effective DH for a decade. Maybe even a LF rotation with 2-3 DH appearances a week would keep him healthy. Probably getting his playing weight down to 230 instead of 250 and sacrificing a bit of power would help.

Trout can definitely be acquired for a discount with the Angels picking up lots of salary. The question is whether taking a 50-50 chance on him being healthy could get you a 3-4 WAR DH for a few years.

[xyzabc25]

I still think we should seriously consider making a trade offer for Steven Kwan LF. I understand the reluctance over his becoming a free agent in year 2028. But his performance this season is an almost perfect fit for what our lineup needs.
2024 season: BB% 9.7, K% 9.4, .292/.368/.425 vs L .319, vs R .280 WAR 4.1 FRV 3 OAA 6
The Sporting News speculated on 10/22 that the Phillies might be able to obtain Kwan from Cleveland for the following package: Brandon Marsh, Justin Crawford and Mick Abel. I think that would be a good deal although maybe the Abel piece might need to be strengthened.

[zambonir]

I just don't see why Kwan would be at all available. Sure, Cleveland might want to trade him in 2027 to get greater value for him a year prior to his free agency, a la the Brewers and Rays always seeking out the sweet spot between peak value and increasing salary, but that point is nowhere near arriving yet. He's only expected to make around $4 million next season. They can afford that.

The fact that he's a FA in three years is no big deal from the Phillies' perspective. The three years of control is part of what would make him so expensive. I would not give up that big a package for him, and certainly wouldn't want to subtract 3.8 WAR (Marsh) to add 3.8 WAR (Kwan). You want to keep Marsh while you add an OF.

[xyzabc25]

We disagree. That's ok. I think Kwan and Marsh are much further apart than a few WAR numbers though.

[allentown]

We already have a 3 WAR DH.

This was addressed to andyb

[Austinfan]

Given they actually have talent coming up, I think DD can take the long view and run it back with a few tweaks.
Not a 2011 "last hurrah" situation, but more the 2000s where they were competitive but still needed to add talent to get to the next level.

Painter looks healthy, Abel still has a lot of upside, McGarry, McGowan, etc. for the pen, Crawford, Ricones, followed by Caba, Rincon, Tait, etc. As young players start arriving, they can move out second tier guys like Castellanos.

Worst thing they can do is start trading top prospects for one last push with the 30+ core, this approach rarely pays off but can bury a franchise for a decade. It's one thing to trade 2nd tier prospects who are blocked (Bergolla), but the guys with 3-4+ WAR potential, even if half flop, the ones that make it keep you competitive.

[zambonir]

I am not saying Kwan isn't a better player, just that he only improves the team incrementally if Marsh is in the trade. And also, if the Indians can't afford to keep Kwan they can't afford to take Marsh (he's expected to make $3.4 million to Kwan's $4 million next year; they would both be too expensive for a penny-pinching Cleveland team in the long run).