Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

bkeich 2024-10-20 00:35:57 UTC #221

Another reason why I don’t like Schwarber in the leadoff spot. He is pretty much less likely to hit a single than anyone else in the majors, in 2023 he was much lower, this past season he raised his single percentage.

Another reason to use the traditional batting order of best overall hitter in #3, best power hitter in #4 since he will “clean up” after the best OBP hitters.

Dirk41 2024-10-20 00:45:39 UTC #222

Love the idea of Nootbaar

julio 2024-10-20 01:31:47 UTC #223

They won 95 games with that stupid lineup.

zambonir 2024-10-20 02:15:12 UTC #224

And of course the Phillies solved their Jimmy Rollins "problem" by putting Juan Pierre in the 2011 lead-off spot. He wasn't bad either, but it hardly mattered. Jimmy went back to leading off in 2012 (with Ben Revere hitting second), which also hardly mattered.

bkeich 2024-10-20 02:16:05 UTC #225

julio:

bkeich:

phillychuck:

There are a few Sabermetric articles that make the claim that speed helps more at the bottom of the lineup, from #5-#8 because the extra base by SB or by smart base running enables players to score on singles (which are the most common hit produced by hitters not batting 1-4 on most teams). So speed helps at there top, and helps at the bottom, pretty much helps anywhere...
Another reason why I don’t like Schwarber in the leadoff spot. He is pretty much less likely to hit a single than anyone else in the majors, in 2023 he was much lower, this past season he raised his single percentage.

Another reason to use the traditional batting order of best overall hitter in #3, best power hitter in #4 since he will “clean up” after the best OBP hitters.

They won 95 games with that stupid lineup.

Nowhere did I say it was a stupid lineup.

If they had batted Rojas #4 or #1 I think we could all agree that wasn’t optimal and they would have won a few less games, say 92. I think there is nothing wrong with discussing things that could improve the team.

There were many ways that they could have optimized this team, but there were more ways to make it worse.

Jazzhead 2024-10-20 14:08:01 UTC #226

Another plate discipline guy to think about is Alex Verdugo, still just 29 years old. He had a down year with the Yankees, suffering through a terrible midsummer slump, but his strikeout percentage, about 15%, was outstanding and consistent with his prior career. He's be an upgrade defensively, with a powerful arm ideally suited for right field. He's never walked as much as he should, but he can probably be had for not much more than Austin Hays would earn in arbitration.

Philsmania 2024-10-21 15:45:25 UTC #227

bkeich:

julio:

bkeich:

phillychuck:

There are a few Sabermetric articles that make the claim that speed helps more at the bottom of the lineup, from #5-#8 because the extra base by SB or by smart base running enables players to score on singles (which are the most common hit produced by hitters not batting 1-4 on most teams). So speed helps at there top, and helps at the bottom, pretty much helps anywhere...
Another reason why I don’t like Schwarber in the leadoff spot. He is pretty much less likely to hit a single than anyone else in the majors, in 2023 he was much lower, this past season he raised his single percentage.

Another reason to use the traditional batting order of best overall hitter in #3, best power hitter in #4 since he will “clean up” after the best OBP hitters.

They won 95 games with that stupid lineup.

Nowhere did I say it was a stupid lineup.

If they had batted Rojas #4 or #1 I think we could all agree that wasn’t optimal and they would have won a few less games, say 92. I think there is nothing wrong with discussing things that could improve the team.

There were many ways that they could have optimized this team, but there were more ways to make it worse.

I do think they have a lot of dumb hitters who take dumb approaches at the plate--not selective, don't work counts, not only swing away but swing for the fences away. Harper and Schwarber are the only real good hitters in this lineup in my opinion. Yes, they won 95 games this season but that was built upon a monster first half against a weaker schedule with teams that had poor pitching.

bkox 2024-10-21 16:19:11 UTC #228

And yet Schwarber, Casty (by 159 points) Realmuto and Rojas all had much better 2nd half OPS. (all by more than 50points). Harper's 2nd half was actually sub 800.

Whats interesting is what really changed in the 2nd half was the OBP. BA and SLG were the same. But the OBP dropped 15 points

Philsmania 2024-10-21 16:35:41 UTC #229

Better pitchers who knew how to deploy better breaking pitches that played to the Phillies hitters' worst free swinging for the fences qualities? Those Mets starting pitchers were masters of breaking pitches and they ate the Phillies hitters alive.

Lucky_Beagle 2024-10-21 18:23:11 UTC #230

I always find it funny when its considered the 2nd half yet there were 30 more games played in the first half.

zambonir 2024-10-21 18:40:26 UTC #231

yup that's a pretty significant thing! 66 games is 40% of the season and the Phillies were 33-33 but they could have easily won 10 off those losses with a slightly shorter slump or better #4 and #5 pitching.

Either way I still don't really think the offense was the issue, even against the Mets (which had a higher chase rate in the series). Bullpen shows up and we might win that series in five. Just like we went 3-2 in the five September games before clinching. Advance to the LCS and bats might have come alive. It's not like the Dodgers and Yankees haven't heard their issues (all season or at times in the playoffs).

Philsmania 2024-10-21 22:07:40 UTC #232

if you really want to go purely at the 50% mark, they were 53-28 (.654) after Game 81, ironically a loss to the Marlins. From that point forward, their record was 42-39 (.518). From a 106 win pace to an 84 win pace, FWIW.

zambonir 2024-10-22 13:46:52 UTC #233

This story argues that Soto is going to end up with the highest bidder, period. And that means Ohtani money, at least in AAV ($43-46 million).

Baseball/CBT considerations aside it is certainly easier for Steven Cohen ($15.9 billion net worth) to do this than John Middleton ($3.4 billion net worth) and two other owners, though that's no less true for the Yankees.

I also wonder - did he like playing with Harper? And are Boras and Harper ready for him to be the second-best paid player on the Phillies?

My guess is it goes more like Yamamoto (where the Phillies were serious but he wasn't) than Machado (where he actually came to town and met with everyone). Certainly Dombrowski has already tampered those expectations by saying we have enough stars (true) and while Boras no doubt relishes having people think the Phillies might help drive up the bidding.

andyb 2024-10-22 14:20:39 UTC #234

My gut says Soto ends up in New York as those 2 teams have the resources to not care about the top tier of the luxury tax. He struggled a bit in San Diego that was further from home and New York is really the place to be for a Dominican player who wants to get paid (Miami can't afford it).

There were no problems really with Harper that I can remember in DC. Soto was kind of happy to be the second person in the limelight rather than the first. Playing with Judge or Lindor would put him in that position anyway. Agree that we'll make an effort but eventually the dollars probably just won't make sense even if we found a taker for Casty's contract.

bkeich 2024-10-22 17:20:44 UTC #235

I suspect the only landing spot for Soto is the Yankees. Mets and Dodgers are distant 2nd and 3rd. The Yankees would be willing to go for $50M/season and I suspect that is what it is going to take to keep him from even talking to other teams seriously.

I certainly hope the contract is a albatross. He and Judge together is pretty terrifying.

bkox 2024-10-22 17:30:02 UTC #236

The anti-yankee person I am agrees. The overall baseball fan in me wants to see what Soto can do over the next 10+ years if he stays Elite. And where his final numbers end up.

bkeich 2024-10-22 17:52:42 UTC #237

Yea, that is true too.... for that to be my hope we would have to sign him. Think he will take $30M over 10 years? Probably not.

zambonir 2024-10-22 18:15:06 UTC #238

If he wants the biggest deal, period, I see no reason why the Mets wouldn't outbid the Yankees.

Judge makes 40 AAV. Soto will be no less than that, and probably more.

Taudawg 2024-10-22 18:17:34 UTC #239

The Phillies will begin the offseason with the highest 2025 payroll commitment - almost 223mil. The Yankees are third (202), and the Mets 10th at just under 142mil.

I would wager the Mets will sign Soto. Signing Soto will make the fans in Queens forget all about the Polar Bear. I think the Phillies have no shot.

A 1-3 of Lindor, Vientos and Soto is downright nasty.

zambonir 2024-10-22 18:29:46 UTC #240

Well, we know from our own young players (and old players!) that you can't just assume 2024 Vientos is who he'll be in future years. But he was something.