Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[andyb]

He just was not ready to start when JT's contract was up. Nobody did anything wrong here. Letting JT go to free agency and muddling through with a cheap catcher for a year or two while counting on O'Hoppe to be good enough to claim the job would not have been a good decision. Just like assuming Tait will be good enough in a couple of years is also not likely a good decision.

Now if the alternative would have been letting O'Hoppe be the backup last year and giving him the full time job this year while JT was hurt. Those would have been good baseball decisions that might have had us looking to trade JT (which itself would be controversial for a winning team - more likely we would have traded O'Hoppe at an even higher value).

We have made the right decisions so far with JT and O'Hoppe. Anybody want to trade Bryce Harper to clear some space in the lineup for Justin Crawford?

[zambonir]

We were definitely talking about trading JT in May of 2022! Nola probably would have been on the table too if things had continued they way they were going then.

Our old pal Travis D'Arnaud just put up a 1.1 BBWAR in 79 starts at age 35. He has an 8 million option for this next season, which is also what he made this year.

[andyb]

We were definitely talking about trading JT in May of 2022!

I think you know that is a silly comment. That would have been year 2 of his deal in the middle of a 6 WAR season. I actually don't recall a single post saying we should trade him then. And at the deadline we were adding and each offseason we've been trying to win.

It is easy to cherry-pick any player's best season and then say you should have traded him for the Franklin Mint at that time. But of course those trade talks almost never happen.

The reality is we'll need a catcher in 2026. That catcher probably won't be Marchan or Tait. It could be JT though if he has a decent year next year. I doubt we'll care about the money as long as it is not an increase. JT's athleticism is letting him age gracefully. Now it will not make him immune from injury like his knee this year. That is really the variable we'll be looking at.

[allentown]

Anybody want to trade Bryce Harper to clear some space in the lineup for Justin Crawford?

Obviously not, but when he is ready I would like to see him in the OF and Castellanos as a PH for his last season in Philly. We will have to see how things go with Schwarber: how well does he perform in 2025, how many $/years does he insist upon for an extension. It's possible, probably not likely, that Castellanos is our DH in 2026, depending on how he performs in 2025 and the state of Schwarber's aging curve and contract demands. Schwarber may pose a tough choice: this season's 3.5 WAR was the best of his career at age 31. If he does well again next season, he likely has a large salary demand. He has earned his current salary, having received same salary/yr but one fewer years than the slightly older Castellanos. Schwarber may want 6 years at a higher salary, which likely puts the end of his contract into the time when Harper needs to DH.

[andyb]

I think it is more likely Crawford takes Rojas' job. And we can't really trade Casty though it is not his fault there is no DH spot.

The point is nobody on a big market team ever makes an A's type trade of a superstar to clear a path for a prospect that is a year or two away. I agree that making Casty our DH or trading him for peanuts is a possible future. Though it is not like we have OFs chomping at the bit now anyway. Outside of Crawford we have few possibilities in the OF in the minors and Crawford really just looks like a higher OBP left-handed version of Rojas now (A GOOD PLAYER BUT NOT A STAR).

Miller or Turner probably figure into our OF future (one of them) as we really have nobody else coming assuming Bryce remains at 1B.

[bkox]

I think you know that is a silly comment. That would have been year 2 of his deal in the middle of a 6 WAR season. I actually don't recall a single post saying we should trade him then. And at the deadline we were adding and each offseason we've been trying to win.

Eh.. yeah we kinda were

[zambonir]

Yeah I was definitely remembering, not joking.

[andyb]

Well PC clearly did not know what he was talking about back then! I guess we all have too much time on our hands. My comment is where I am on Tait. Get him to AAA and if he still looks like the real thing then I am willing to clear the position for him.

[allentown]

And, if you re-read what I wrote, you will see that I didn't propose trading anyone. Crawford will spend 2024 in Allentown, as he should.

[phillychuck]

I think the idea of trading JT back then and going with O'Hoppe was fine, as long as the return was "significant young talent". Would I do it if I had a time machine and the authority??...depends on the talent, of course.

[Austinfan]

The problem with Crawford is unless he significantly improves his plate discipline, he's not a leadoff hitter, he's a .320 OPB type. They want him to hit line drives b/c as he fills out he's going to have serious gap power with that frame. But to lead off, he should get up to the .350 OPB range. I don't want another Rollins who hits too high in the lineup b/c he would pout otherwise.

[julio]

The problem with Crawford is unless he significantly improves his plate discipline, he's not a leadoff hitter, he's a .320 OPB type. They want him to hit line drives b/c as he fills out he's going to have serious gap power with that frame. But to lead off, he should get up to the .350 OPB range. I don't want another Rollins who hits too high in the lineup b/c he would pout otherwise.

Well, it's not as if he has to lead off...

First rule: Appreciate what a player - any player - can contribute. Don't fixate on whatever potential negatives you can find.

[Austinfan]

My point is simply where you put him in the lineup.
Rollins should have bat 6th, which is where I see Crawford unless he improves his OBP.

[julio]

My point is simply where you put him in the lineup.

If you say so. What you wrote was, "The problem with Crawford is unless he significantly improves his plate discipline, he's not a leadoff hitter..."

I don't see this as necessarily a problem, much less "the problem."

For that matter... the fact that Jimmy Rollins wasn't an ideal leadoff hitter was a "problem" with Jimmy Rollins. To the extent there was a problem, it was that Rollins' clubs didn't have (or their managers didn't see) a better leadoff option. This wasn't Jimmy's problem, but a problem in how others saw him (although I recognize that Rollins became attached to the leadoff slot - players do have egos).

The Phillies (and a lot of fans) went through the same thing with Scott Rolen. The "problem with Rolen" was that he wasn't really a cleanup hitter, wasn't a pure power hitter. And again, this wasn't Rolen's problem, but a problem of others' expectations, whether that was fans, or management that tried to will Rolen into being something he wasn't, because they didn't have the slugger they wanted.

If Justin Crawford can contribute, that is a good thing. If he's not a leadoff hitter...so what? If he's not Barry Bonds, so what?

Alec Bohm is not Mike Schmidt; nor is any other 3B the Phillies find likely to be. Nor is Bryson Stott, or anybody else, likely to be the next Chase Utley. That doesn't mean there are "problems" with these guys, although the jury's still out on both of them. But measure them against reasonable standards; faliure to be a "perfect" player, or a first-round hall-of-famer, is not a "problem."

[andyb]

This irrational Rollins criticism needs to stop at some point. In his age 25-29 prime (2004-2008) he had a slash of 286/342/468 with 195 stolen bases at a high rate of success. Did not strike out much. Did not hit into too many DPs. Smart baserunner in addition to the speed. That is a pretty darn good leadoff hitter.

Just because someone does not hit like you want them to hit does not mean you have to keep talking them down. Chase had less speed but more power. Rollins was better than Victorino (and the OBP was always close if not also better). Rollins' presence on the bases helped everyone behind him. Who else are you going to leadoff?

Justin Crawford has a .371 career OBP at levels aggressive for his age. 380 last season in Reading at age 20. Relatively low K rate in today's game. Steals bases at over an 80% success rate.

Last time I checked hits are more valuable than walks. Crawford has a very good shot at being a good leadoff hitter.

[julio]

Last time I checked hits are more valuable than walks. Crawford has a very good shot at being a good leadoff hitter.

Yes... but even if he doesn't become that, it's nuts to decide up front what his role "has to be," and then evaluate his performance in the future against your pre-determined stereotype (because that's what it is), rather than just looking at his performance objectively. Fans do this all the time — they decide that Joe Blow is going to be the next Babe Ruth, and then when he's not, they decide he's a failure.

I guess I'm saying, don't pile expectations on a young player like that. It's just asking for disappointment, and beyond that, it results in not seeing real value because that value doesn't look quite like you expected.

[andyb]

Schwarber is probably a little too attached to leadoff but it is working for now. What does not really get measured is his lack of speed clogging the bases sometimes with Turner behind him. The additional double plays because he is on first and not second as well. The plusses are the number of pitches he sees and the OBP is good if he is hitting .250 and not .190.

There is no perfect leadoff hitter. But teams DO want to put their best 3 hitters 1-3 in the lineup and speed helps at the top.

[phillychuck]

There are a few Sabermetric articles that make the claim that speed helps more at the bottom of the lineup, from #5-#8 because the extra base by SB or by smart base running enables players to score on singles (which are the most common hit produced by hitters not batting 1-4 on most teams). So speed helps at there top, and helps at the bottom, pretty much helps anywhere...

[zambonir]

Of course Schwarber, Turner, and Harper are our three best hitters, if not in that order. And certainly any thoughts of moving Stott to lead-off or second or Marsh hitting higher is dead for now.

I wouldn't mind seeing Turner-Bohm-Harper-Schwarber but then you really are taking away ABs from our most consistent guy besides Bryce.

Turner probably does deserve no other look there though. He was just slumping in general and so was the team when they originally gave up on it and went back to Schwarber.

Also worth looking at: Schwarber had 230 of his 692 PAs with men on base. Trea had 221 of 505 and Bryce had 281 of 550. That's hardly surprising, but I wonder what it would look like if you had a better hitter 9th instead of 8th or 7th (not that those guys weren't on base for Kyle too). And also how many more RBIs Schwarber would have hitting in the middle of the order.

Won't happen, but Bryce might still be the best second choice. He'd have all the same impact Schwarber does (putting the pitcher immediately on edge, lots of homers on the first AB of the game, lots of walks) plus you'd be giving your best player the most PAs.

[andyb]

Judge and Ohtani have done OK at leadoff. I'd be OK with it though I think Bryce is comfortable hitting 3rd. I wonder if he likes watching the first 2 hitters in the first inning to get a feel for what the opposition pitcher is throwing. He also likes being in situations where he can be aggressive and might feel the need to stress OBP in the leadoff role.

Probably does not matter that much.