Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

andyb 2024-10-18 21:54:08 UTC #181

Yes but --- JT was still better this year at 3.0 bWAR even missing a month. He might regress further, but there is probably a good chance he is better next year as well.

O'Hoppe is a good catcher, but he would not have made us better. The timing of his development was just not going to work in terms of the Phillies getting that value out of him so it was not a bad decision to trade him.

flyers19rw 2024-10-18 22:46:32 UTC #182

IDK regarding O’Hoppe. He’d have been a much better fill in for JT than Stubbs this season and last. If he were still a Phillies the organization would be in a position to let JT walk if they wanted. Now they’re sort of in a bind at the position.
I’d like Dombrowski to stay away from making deals with the Angels. Getting Marsh and Estevan have been pretty costly acquisitions.

andyb 2024-10-18 22:51:10 UTC #183

O'Hoppe would not have had 3.0 WAR as a fill-in. And neither he nor JT would be plus at other positions.

Once the Phillies signed JT to a 5-year extension they basically had to trade O'Hoppe. Could O'Hoppe plus JT's money have made the Phillies better? Maybe. There was just no way they knew that when O'Hoppe was still in AA ball (while JT was having a 6+ WAR season).

Marsh may not have been the right trade, but that does not make the decision to trade O'Hoppe wrong.

Austinfan 2024-10-19 00:07:11 UTC #184

Marsh is an excellent corner OF who can probably hit better than he did this season.
Whether he'll ever hit LH pitching is a question, but he's certainly an excellent (3+ WAR) part of a platoon.

RolenRules 2024-10-19 02:37:27 UTC #185

JT's contract is another example of Phils hamstringing (is that a word?) themselves with contracts that are too long. If they had given JT a 4 year deal, maybe they wouldn't have traded O'Hoppe.

At the time JT was re-signed, it was thought the Mets were the other serious suitor. However, the Mets had signed McCann earlier in the off-season. So, I don't think the Phils had to give JT five years.

JT's contract has been money well spent so far. Even so, as Andy noted its length might have forced their own hand.

zambonir 2024-10-19 03:15:34 UTC #186

O'Hoppe was gonna be traded at some point regardless. Had he still been in the org and the Phillies hadn't had an OF hole he might have gone for something else entirely (a pitcher, a closer, even an infielder). Marsh was already worth it just for '22 and '23, and he's still got a long Phillies career ahead of him if they don't flip him into something else.

I think JT is also still better than most of us give him credit for. He'll probably be re-signed, just hopefully not for more than 2 years and at a more fair rate for his current level. But he was still better than I think we might realize (or at least better than I realized) this season:

in 2024, MLB catchers combined to generate a .678 OPS — one of the lowest marks in modern history for the position.

It is a defensive spot.

Realmuto always stood above the pack with his strong offensive and defensive mix. Even in a down season, his .751 OPS ranked eighth in baseball among those with 300 plate appearances as a catcher.

Realmuto started 41 of a possible 54 games from Aug. 1 until the end of the regular season. His .827 OPS during that span ranked third among all MLB catchers.

RolenRules 2024-10-19 04:35:18 UTC #187

JT will play all next year at age 34. I think it is a losing bet to commit to him bet much beyond that. So many star players fall off a cliff by their mid thirtes.

I will note that JT's two most similar hitters through age 33 (per Baseball-reference.com) are Carlton Fisk and Benito Santiago.

xyzabc25 2024-10-19 12:28:54 UTC #188

Agree 100%. Crawford, Miller & Caba probably won't be ready for serious innings until 2026. I'm ok trying to fix LF and at the same time the "sluggger-lineup" with a short-term 29 - 31 OF. Some one who can control the strike zone and play above average defense. Time for the front office to find good talent and good value in the same deal.

allentown 2024-10-19 13:46:56 UTC #189

Yes, JT should not be resigned. The Phillies hamstring themselves by rewarding their stars. We had many dark years under Giles, because he foolishly rewarded Dykstra and Daulton and their big contracts (at least by Giles' budget standards), underperformance and ownership's unwillingness to extend budget. We now are big spenders but up against that the luxury limit where it really bites on acquiring young amateur talent, That is an especially crucial hit for a team as old as the Phillies.

Austinfan 2024-10-19 13:48:33 UTC #190

I have no problem signing JT to a two year extension at market rates for his current performance.

The mistake that is commonly made is paying for peak year performance (Castellanos) on a long-term deal where player performance is guaranteed to decline from that peak.

phillychuck 2024-10-19 13:53:21 UTC #191

We are $50M below the Yankees and $60M below the Mets. I agree that we need to be sensible on acquiring older talent and retaining it, but there is no reason to reduce the budget. Running a big-budget operation is different than running the A's or the Royals or even the Giles-era Phils. Make the right decision on talent (letting JT walk is probably right, ditching Walker is right if they can make it happen) but they can't be afraid of continuing to spend money.

Castellanos and JT are the hard choices.

andyb 2024-10-19 14:19:26 UTC #192

Nobody is suggesting sign JT for 5 more years. A 2-year deal feels right and it should come with some discount. Remember we don't have another catcher and our offense takes a hit it we replace 750 OPS with 600. JT (and getting offense from the catcher spot) is a big reason we have an above average team offense.

Resigning JT would depend on continued health and the lack of alternatives. Tait looks promising but he is 18 and very risky to count on - and certainly not by 2026. We are going to need a catcher. His presence in the clubhouse also approaches Yadi's presence with the Cardinals. Now Yadi was pretty much a 1.5 WAR player age 34 and beyond. But that is still productive and worth like $12 million a year or a little more with inflation.

Here is Fangraphs WAR rankings. JT is right behind O'Hoppe though with 100 fewer plate appearances (chart is minimum 300 plate appearances).

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders-legacy.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=300&type=6&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=&page=1_50

allentown 2024-10-19 14:24:40 UTC #193

I am not suggesting that we reduce the budget. To stay below the meaningful lux cap requires parting with older, fading stars in order to sign younger ones. We also need to get some homegrown young players who are meaningful WAR contributors.

phillychuck 2024-10-19 14:31:43 UTC #194

I agree with you. The trick isn't getting rid of the older, fading stars, it's finding good younger players to replace them. That's how DD earns his money (if he does...). DD is batting below .500 on trades, I think. Sanchez is value for value, but so far a win for us, Marsh is value for value, pretty even right now. Hays seems like a pretty substantial loss, Estevez has been a bit of a disappointment (which I thought would be the case at the time), can't remember if Sosa was a trade or a FA, I'd like to see a full list, but I'm too busy to do it now.

EDmuch 2024-10-19 15:06:51 UTC #195

If he makes the team next year (or in 2026), I could Crawford becoming the lead off hitter, even if we retained Schwarber.
Crawford could be exactly what they are looking for to lead off: a strong contact hitter with speed.

phillychuck 2024-10-19 15:08:31 UTC #196

I agree, but the powers that be think he its the ball on the ground too much... My fear is that they will tinker with his swing until it's broken...

EDmuch 2024-10-19 15:09:32 UTC #197

PC, that is a distinct possibility.

zambonir 2024-10-19 15:36:20 UTC #198

You don't re-sign JT because he's a star, you re-sign him because he's still going to be an above average major league catcher and you'd have to pay someone else who actually is one even more money and years (if he's younger). A tandem of Marchan and a replacement level #2 is likely not going to be better, especially if Marchan can't stay healthy

Ruiz gave us 3.1 WAR, -0.6 WAR and 1.6 WAR from ages 35-37, and that 1.6 WAR was in just 48 games. The bad year his bat collapsed - over .700 OPS the other two, under .600 in that one.

We have next year to see how it all goes in any case.

I'm certainly reluctant to see them go into the highest tax bracket, but the reality is, this is not a team that can afford to take a step back for one or two years and then reload around Harper and Turner after Wheeler and Nola are gone. They have to stay all-in until 2027 (the last year of Wheeler's deal). Even bringing back Schwarber on a shorter cheaper deal may be preferable to signing another big-ticket free agent. By 2027 the bottom might fall out, or they will have developed enough young talent to ameliorate the down years of Harper and Turner's contracts.

andyb 2024-10-19 16:01:41 UTC #199

Who on this board recommended that the Phillies let Wheeler test free agency before he signed his extension last year. Some might have noted the risk, but I really don't remember anybody saying that was a bad move. He is our best pitcher and arguably our best player, but signing him one year before we had to (a risk that is now gone) was a risk designed to keep that player. Now he will make $42 million for his age 35-37 years when pitchers are often not healthy just like catchers.

If you want to keep your star players you should do so, ideally without giving up any prospects. If JT has a decent season this upcoming year it is the exact same argument with Wheeler though at a much lower dollar level.

julio 2024-10-19 16:05:49 UTC #200

The bugaboo in this, to me, is that O'Hoppe is nine years younger. It's a shame he's stuck in the wasteland that is the Los Angeles Angels.