Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[BostonRoss]

I have hit on the solution for next season.

According to baseball-reference, Nick Castellanos has the 17th lowest dWAR among rightfielders in MLB history. No surprise there. Actually he's tied for 17th with Ken Griffey (I'm sure you don't need to ask which Ken Griffey). But Nick can easily move up (down) the list. If he puts up another -1.7 next year, he'll move down (up) to 11th. And he has more years left! He is destined for greatness.

What if the Phillies moved Nick to left field? Here are the ranks (from the bottom) in dWAR among left fielders in the Phillies' best seasons:

1950 - Del Ennis (18th worst out of 500)
1976-1980 - Greg Luzinski (5th worst)
1983 - Gary Matthews (7th worst)
1993 - Pete Incaviglia (113th worst, but he had a shorter career than the others--if he played the same number of games as Sarge, he'd be in the top 40)
2007-2008 - Pat Burrell (30th worst)
2009-2011 - Raul Ibanez (10th worst)
2022-2023 - Kyle Schwarber (34th worst and counting though he's being stymied from true awfulness by playing only five games in the field this year)

And if you want to go there...
1964 - Wes Covington (27th worst)

The problem is obvious: They put a Gold Glove candidate out there in LF. What were they thinking?

The solution is obvious: Put Nick out there! (Or maybe put Schwarber back...)

[Austinfan]

I wonder if DD mostly runs it back, figuring by the Allstar break he'll know if he needs to make a major move, and whether his top prospects are ready. It's not just the big name prospects, guys like Kemp, Kennedy, Marchan, etc. might also be ready to be promoted at that point. Same with the pitchers.

[zambonir]

Or we could put Schwarber back there and let Nick DH!

Certainly they never intended for him to play RF. When they signed him he and Schwarber were supposed to split LF and DH equally because we had a full-time RF. Never completely understood how he ended up there for Detroit given 3B to LF seems like a more natural move.

Also, given all of the above, it's hard to believe Hoskins didn't work out there (given he was never a plus at 1B either).

[allentown]

That does seem to be his primary skill set but he's also no better than Nick as one of the free swingers (and with less consistent power).

Does Bohm have less, or less consistent power? He has a lot of doubles, leading to more x-base hits than Castellanos in fewer PA and ABs. Bohm had a very good first half, tailed off in 2nd half. Castellanos was the reverse in regular season, but that isn't a sign of more consistent power.

[zambonir]

Well, okay, Nick has more home run power. But also a career .470 SLG. Bohm is just .416. And, second half of 2024, Alec slugged .382 with a .681 OPS while Nick was .494/.839. It's easy to predict that Nick is never going to have a better season again, let alone slug .570 or .600 (which he has!), but Alec will never slug like that either. I'm just not convinced he has another level (let alone the level Nick reached when he was Bohm's age). But then I certainly didn't think he'd do what he did this year either.

And that's okay. They are both pretty good! And both terrible in the field. The Phillies can live with them, but replacing one of them with a different type of hitter might make the team better, and deciding which one to replace comes with myriad variables (both the trade return and how you get the replacement, since it won't necessarily happen in the same deal). I would also sooner lose one of them than Marsh or Stott, who seem less redundant/more valuable (and are both still younger/further away from free agency than Bohm. Nick, of course will just leave when his deal is up).

[allentown]

Well, okay, Nick has more home run power. But also a career .470 SLG. Bohm is just .416.

I simply do not believe it reasonable to use career SLG value for a guy going into his age 33 season, when his recent production has fallen short of the career average. During his 3 years with Phillies, his SLG has been .389, .476, and .431 this season. Over the same 3 seasons, Bohm's SLG has been .398, .437, and .448 this season. Since Bohm's SLG has gone up each of the last 3 seasons, and because he is entering only his age 28 season, I expect that Bohm is likelier to maintain his .448 SLG than Castellanos is to maintain his .431. I can't.support your use of career SLG for a guy whose career numbers are way down from his good years. That's the approach which leads to teams overpaying for 'didn't you used to be' fallen stars. There comes a time, not the same age for all players, when their chance of matching their career average drops close to zero.

I also think Thomson's going along with Nick's wish to be an iron man, is insane and not the way he has played throughout his career. Last season's 162 games was the only time in his career that he exceeded his 157 games for us in 2023, and he matched that 157 only twice in his career and not after 2018. It made sense to get him in so many games in 2017 and 2018: his SLG averaged .495 for those two years and he was only 26-years old.

[zambonir]

I am not saying Bohm won't be better than Nick going forward, though it might still be close. If both of those players perform at the exact same level they did from June 1 on (i.e. Nick doesn't have two bad months and Bohm doesn't play like an MVP for two months) it will be.

But your original question was, why are people talking about trading one of our better young players? And the answer is simply that if the premise is that the Phillies can't just run it back, or improve the line-up solely via free agency without incurring unacceptable penalties, doing that is the only way, and Bohm would be my choice of the four we have if so (Three really, since Rojas probably doesn't have huge value. With Ranger as another option, if they don't think they are going to re-sign him).

The other issue is that the Phillies RHB line-up specifically is their weakness, because Realmuto is done as an offensive force and the other three guys are all similar hitters.

What Went Wrong With the Phillies, and How Can It Be Fixed?

the frustrating hacker reputation really comes down to three players: Turner, Castellanos, and Alec Bohm. All three are righties with long swings who keep their bats in the zone for a long time and hit for some power. All three of them spray line drives to all fields when they’re hot — and look completely hapless when they’re cold. Castellanos was one of two Phillies hitters, along with Harper, who you could say had a great series. Turner had his ups and downs.

Bohm was so bad I saw someone on Twitter compare him to Ben Simmons.

Let’s not go that far. But in four games, Bohm managed one walk, one single, and one contentious benching. He saw just 39 pitches in 14 plate appearances, and swung at eight out of 21 pitches outside the zone. We think of chasing as a bad thing because you’ll swing and miss, but Bohm made a lot of contact on pitches outside the zone, which might be worse — those chases resulted in four weak outs, three of them within the first two pitches of the at-bat.

The Phillies have a lot of hitters who like to force the action early. When the intensity of scouting and quality of pitching goes up in October, that can lead to a lot of quick outs and soft groundballs. Harper can’t be the only one grinding.

They just need one hitter who is better than either Nick or Bohm. Basically, they still miss peak Rhys Hoskins.

I'm all for trading Nick before anyone else if they can pull it off, but that probably means both finding a taker for him and paying more than he made for a new OF in free agency.

Running it back is still entirely possible; the only problem with that is then you are spending more trade capital at the deadline if you do still have holes.

[Austinfan]

The one hope is DD has seen how they hit the last two playoffs and will finally realize that you don't overpay free swingers.
At least at the lower levels of the farm, they seem to be developing more hitters with plate discipline.

When you go against good pitchers, you can't give them 8-10 pitch innings and allow them to cruise through 7 or 8 innings and then to the top 2 guys in the pen. You don't necessarily have to draw a lot of walks (should be byproduct of discipline, not the goal), but you have to be patient and wait for your pitch and make the pitcher beat you, not beat yourself.

[flyers19rw]

Watching the Dodgers hitters spit on pitches out of the strike zone from the Mets’ pitchers in these playoffs clearly show what the Phillies need to do. They can either get the current bunch to become more disciplined at the plate or bring in those that can.
While not perfect, kudos should go to Castellanos for reining in his swings for the second half of the season. The same for Schwarber for most of the season compared to those of his from the past. There’s no reason why Stott can’t do the same. Keep Bohm out of the HR Derby and away from the concept that he needs to be Mike Schmidt 2.0. None of the other players have shown any ability to control the strike zone and should be replaced if possible. The strikeouts and poor at bats needs to be immediately remedied.

[zambonir]

To some extent the chase thing is overstated, as Dombrowski pointed out in his presser. They were firmly middle of the pack in terms of chase rate, both in the post-season and in general. They are one of the best offenses in baseball (and it wasn't the offense that kept them from winning 100 games). With a better bullpen they might have still beat the Mets; play them any other week and the bats also might have shown up more.

Stott can still be an important player at the plate for sure. He just didn't have a good year, but his approach has previously been solid. And Marsh was still third on the team in WAR (ahead of Realmuto, Turner and Bohm as well as Stott and Casty and Rojas) despite not playing full-time. The game is not just offense.

Murphys column today, TLDR: either blow past the tax thresholds to keep up with the Dodgers, Mets and Yankees or:

One hypothetical:

Attach Rojas to Walker in a trade to a team in a pitcher’s park and perhaps recoup half of the $36 million the Phillies owe Walker over the next two years. Trade Bohm for a package that includes a potential high-leverage arm and a prospect you can spin off in a trade for the Angels’ Luis Rengifo to play third. Use the combined savings (about $17 million) plus the rainy day fund to sign Santander, and move Marsh to center.

Realistic or not, it’s an example of the kind of shell game the Phillies will need to play if their offseason isn’t as simple as adding a Bregman or Santander to the payroll.

Phillies offseason hinges on a $300 million question: How much more can John...

[Austinfan]

Sometimes you have to take one step back to take two steps forward.
I think this team has to get younger, teams where most of your top players are over 30 are more likely to regress than improve.

[andyb]

The reality though is that our tradeable pieces are really only our younger players. We can get better, but we are unlikely to even try to get much younger. We don't have many prospects that will claim jobs at the beginning of the year, so our strategy will be more about shuffling the pieces we have to get better and not younger. We probably don't want to get older with these deals either, but better is the priority.

[zambonir]

They will get younger in 2026. Schwarber and Realmuto's deals will be up, Casty and Walker (if they are both still here) and Bohm will be in their last seasons and they probably shouldn't re-sign Ranger (who will be 31 at the time of his next deal). To get a good young player now would cost them either prospects (as Brandon Marsh did) or an already-younger player. Problem is free agency only gets you older players even if money's no object.

Or you go back to platoons. Austin Hays counts as "younger," incidentally. But there's also nothing wrong with patching your short-term holes with short-term vets.

[Taudawg]

They may not get younger if assistant general manager Harper holds too much sway. He loves him some J.T. and both Schwarber and Ranger (I believe) are QO eligible. They "could" run it back for two more seasons at least. At least if Ranger is in a position to receive QO, he probably declines to look for something longer. It would be a mistake to run it back once or twice, but Dombrowski has painted the team into a pretty tight corner.

[andyb]

The end of the Schwarber contract will be interesting as he has been worth the money. But it also would be nice to have more of a rotating DH. And if there is any scenario to bring Trout in (with LA picking up much of his salary) it would require an open DH slot.

[flyers19rw]

If Schwarber has another year like this last one, the organization will find a way to extend him, money and term TBD. The situation with JT is a tad different. He's still competent and the organization doesn't have anyone close to being ready to take over when his deal terminates. Marchan could be ready but he always has health problems. Tait is a ways off in the future. So extending JT then becomes a necessity. Again money and term TBD.

[Taudawg]

An accepted (or rejected) QO for Schwarber wouldn't be the worst thing, but resigning Kyle or JT to multi-year deals would be a mistake.

[andyb]

I am not sure the direct successor to JT is in the organization UNLESS he is willing to sign a very short lower dollar contract to stay. Say 2/20 with some incentives. Marchan could very well be a decent backup if healthy but he is just not a starter. Tait has potential of course, but is at least 3 years away and probably 50-50 to make it at all (high risk, high ceiling, low floor prospect).

[Taudawg]

I think the prudent thing would be to let JT walk and add a defense-first free agent to pair with Marchan. Spending the money elsewhere normally provides more bang for the buck. Houston for example, won a lot of games with Martin Maldonado as their primary catcher.

[RolenRules]

Well, we had JT's successor in the organization, but we traded O'Hoppe to get Marsh. And now a lot of posters want to get rid of Marsh.

O'Hoppe was worth 2.7 bWAR this year, with offense right at league average in 136 games. He is likely to improve as he played all of 2024 as a 24 year old.