Phillies-Mets NLDS Series Discussion

[fish]

Failure is never the fault of the hitting coach, but isn’t the advice to settle down overaggressive hitters that are getting themselves out to try to take some pitches and work an at bat? They are probably going to throw you a first pitch slider off the plate, so just take it. These guys go to the plate like someone is telling them the only way to find your swing is to swing at everything. Then again, they brought in coaches with a background of working counts to try to get that to stick only to see everyone give up on that a month in. Maybe this is was a club aging 31 and over looks like- just a fraction below what their peak was, but enough that they can’t react like they used to to make the adjustment. Or they don’t want to try to adjust.

[zambonir]

More than a little talk about relievers tipping pitches in this story. Also, Sanchez available out of the pen tomorrow.. Wheeler would still be last resort.

The Phillies look beatable. Everything they’ve built is teetering on the edge....

[LoneStarPhan]

Phillies and Dodgers now down 2 games to one. Both need back to back wins to continue in the postseason.

[gmwannabe]

The better team always does not win....or maybe they do.

[fish]

More than a little talk about relievers tipping pitches in this story.

The Mets jumped on Devin Williams for the same thing- it seems a little fishy that the Mets just became idiot savants all of the sudden.

[andyb]

The better team always does not win....or maybe they do.

I don't think it is really the layoff that has hurt the Phillies, but I do think playing for a playoff spot down the stretch really helps. Our spot (and really the division lead) was never in jeopardy and the Brewers only briefly threatened for the bye. We spent time trying to get Walker and Suarez right and cycling bench players in the lineup who were never going to play much in September.

Playing with some urgency in September may be more important than the wild card layoff.

[bkeich]

He isn’t going to do it, but not moving Wheeler up is a bad idea.

There is no reason to save him for a game 5 if there isn’t one. It is better to have Wheeler and Sanchez on short rest than Suarez overrested and Wheeler.

Maybe we get lucky tonight, but betting the season on a guy who has not pitched well in a long time is not a good plan. We know that Thomson will give him 80-100 pitches unless he puts the game out of reach, so there is no talk of him just going out to get us started. Thomson doesn’t usually do that.

Reverse Jinx please.

[andyb]

Starting Wheeler on short rest seems ill advised to me when you need to win both games. They probably will use Sanchez for an inning too tonight since it is his throwing day. I think you go with Suarez and a short hook (frankly facing elimination would mean a short hook for anybody other than Wheeler).

Bats might need to carry us. Another left-handed starter so we really need Bohm and Hays to step up (and Turner and Castellano and Realmuto). Right-handed bats need to give us much more than we have been getting. Frankly I wonder if Weston Wilson might hit better than Hays given that Hays has given us little since he has been back, but not really expecting that lineup move.

[zambonir]

There's no way Suarez is going 80-100 pitches. If he does, that would be fantastic. Last year he went 3 2/3 and 53 pitches in his first NLDS start. Then 5 and 69. That is always how they have used him in the playoffs. The only time he's even thrown more than 80 pitches in his post-season career was in Game 1 of the 2022 NLDS when he only lasted 3 1/3 (with 5 walks and 5 Ks thus the high count).

It's a lot to put on the pen but they have no choice. Sanchez could help. Wheeler on three days rest is just not a good idea.

It's all about the bats anyway. Can't keep asking these starters to be perfect or pitch from behind. If the offense shows up the series is there for the taking with Wheeler in Game 5. If they don't Wheeler wouldn't be enough (and possibly not his usual self anyway) in Game 4.

[Callison]

Playing slow pitch softball, our team got down 12 in the top of the first inning and after we got the second out, the 3B said, "One thing I like about this team is that it has CHARACTER!" Broke everybody up and we went on to win. Here's hoping something like that happens to the Phils. The season is on the Phils' hitters.

[andyb]

Day off tomorrow so the entire bullpen is available. Doubt they use Alvarado after yesterday unless they have to, but Estevez is the only other one that threw a bunch of pitches. Kind of wish they had the extra RHP in Lazar as an option, but also see how they want Allard to go long in an extra inning game. Assume we can get 4+ outs from Strahm and Hoffman today if we have to and if they pitch well.

As I said earlier though, the bats really need to come through when we are using the back end of the rotation. We probably need to win more of a 6-5 game than a 2-1 game.

[zambonir]

As I said earlier though, the bats really need to come through when we are using the back end of the rotation. We probably need to win more of a 6-5 game than a 2-1 game.

We needed that yesterday too.

But you just never know. Obviously Ranger is big concern now but nothing suggested he'd give up 1, 0 and 0 runs in his first three playoffs starts last year after having a season ERA of 4.18 (and it was worse - 4.57 - in the second half). Then he gave up 3 runs in Game 7 but the Phillies only scored 2. He has a career 1.62 post-season ERA.

He also allowed just 2 runs in five innings against the Mets when he last faced them. Phillies lost 6-3 after Kerkering bombed (with Manea pitching 7 IPs and only allowing three runs).

In the end the Phillies' susceptibility to LHP might get them as much as their overall chase. Other than Nick our RH hitters just aren't very good (Realmuto old, Bohm needs a time machine back to May, Hays probably not himself, Turner has been back-and-forth) and while it is impressive what Schwarber did this year, and Harper has no platoon split this season either, that doesn't mean they are not still more susceptible, as their career numbers still show.

[andyb]

"Shake things up" lineup tonight. Stott and Marsh in against a lefty. And Wilson in for Hays in an acknowledgement that Hays is really not all the way back. I kind of like it though it puts a lot on Stott and Marsh to hit a lefty the first couple of trips through the lineup.

[bkeich]

There's no way Suarez is going 80-100 pitches. If he does, that would be fantastic. Last year he went 3 2/3 and 53 pitches in his first NLDS start. Then 5 and 69. That is always how they have used him in the playoffs. The only time he's even thrown more than 80 pitches in his post-season career was in Game 1 of the 2022 NLDS when he only lasted 3 1/3 (with 5 walks and 5 Ks thus the high count).

It's a lot to put on the pen but they have no choice. Sanchez could help. Wheeler on three days rest is just not a good idea.

It's all about the bats anyway. Can't keep asking these starters to be perfect or pitch from behind. If the offense shows up the series is there for the taking with Wheeler in Game 5. If they don't Wheeler wouldn't be enough (and possibly not his usual self anyway) in Game 4.

Suarez was awful and Thomson did just what I said. He has gotten crazy lucky, Suarez pitched like he has all season after his injury, the Mets just didn’t get the 5 runs that he tried to give them.

[zambonir]

I like Ranger being bad and lucky more than the relievers being bad and unlucky anyway.

[Aquapong]

Aside from one game, the offense came up small. The bullpen was collectively bad the whole series. Estevez and Hoffman may have pitched themselves out of town.

[zambonir]

The bullpen was the shocker. But for sure it was the offense. They did not need a great fourth pitcher, they needed to support the four pitchers they had.

I wouldn't just walk away from our relievers in a postseason where Devin Williams and Klasse and Diaz and Hader have all been smoked too. That's just the nature of the beast. But also why you don't overpay/overcommit to relievers.

[DurhamBull]

Yeah the radio guys said the Phils have hit .190 so far in the series. It's hard to beat a bad team while hitting .190, let alone a good one.

[zambonir]

I always figured this or any NLDS series was going to be a toss-up. The way this one went down feels exquisitely painful but I don't suppose that was any less true for a Braves or Dodgers fan last year.

[Philsmania]

Losing to the Mets makes it feel worse but this was a case of most of the team not showing up to play. 2011 was probably worse though since we had that series in hand twice--Lee coughing up a 4-0 lead in game 2 when the Phillies had a 1-0 series lead and then being up 2-1.