Fun read.
The Mets have thrown Harper 48 pitches in two games. All but 14 of them have been out of the strike zone. He is seeing 71% of pitches out of the zone. And still, he is slashing .400/.667/1.200.
“That’s why he’s The Showman,” Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler said, casting his eyes toward Harper as he held court with a thicket of reporters. On his head, Harper still wore the red bandana he wore during the game, the one with “The Showman” on it.
He got on base 3 out of 4 times in game one. 2 walks. Cant hit em out if they are pitching around ya.
It's notable to me how Estevez has yet to be used and I thought he was used less than expected after the Phillies got him. Is it a case of Hoffman being "Thomson's guy"?
Estevez got an inning last game and was good. It was only 8 pitches also and with a rest day yesterday I thought he might go a second inning. He has rarely been used that way though so I guess Rob is not going to pull the multi-inning card with him until he has to.
Hoffman had 1 save and 6 games finished in Aug and Sept. Estevez had 6 saves and 18 games finished..
Inky has an article on the future of the OF, especially if we lose to the Mets.
Casty is signed through 2026 at $20M a pop
I'll throw Schwarber in here too - signed through 2025 at $20M
Hays is arb 2, getting paid about $2M
Rpjas, Marsh, Wilson & Clemens are obviously still pre-arb
My position on Casty has softened due to his better performance as this season has progressed, but I still would have my ears open for offers to move him along while he still has value.
Schwarber is tough, he is 32 and can only DH effectively. He is, however, a leader on this team and teammates respond to him. Removing him from the team may have unknown repercussions, but I cannot see them extending him again.
I might keep Hays just to see if he can show more of the form he had in Baltimore, but I could also see getting a better full-time LF and letting him go.
Certainly Estevez was going to be used in Game 1 if it hadn't fallen apart. The script was clearly for Hoffman to face the first three batters in the 8th. Had he gotten them all Estevez probably gets the 9th. Or, he gets two outs and Strahm is only needed to get out Nimmo before giving way to Estevez in the 9th. Instead Hoffman got zero outs and Strahm bombed too, forcing Kerkering into the game (at that point it's 3-1 and Estevez is still being saved).
I think two-inning relievers are great and Hoffman and Strahm were both really valuable in that role last year but clearly the Phillies do not value that in their late inning guys, which they both became this season. Hoffman was our top RHP in the 9th until they got Estevez and Strahm is now above Alvarado as the top LHP.
It's too early in the postseason to overextend or overuse any of these guys. Any of it - multi-inning games, pitching three games in a row - could happen in the next two rounds. If we're there. Using Kerkering twice really does show you how much they didn't want Alvarado against RH pockets, but that's all the Mets have.
Feels like bad juju to start the hot stove talk but if we don't have a Phillies game to watch this weekend, I suspect the likes of Marsh, Rojas and even Bohm will be part of the "change" talk, since the other guys are harder to move. Agree you don't rule out moving on from Casty especially if he has value he obviously did not in April. Would be a big team culture change, but in this scenario it's not a team culture worth preserving indefinitely. (That would also apply to extending Schwarber, but once his deal ends, even if they win a championship, he probably goes the way of Burrell, unless he can be gotten on a short deal.)
Hays is probably cheap enough to bring back in the same role but it really depends what the other pieces in CF and LF are.
I want to see a determined Phillies team tonight; the Phillies team that was absolutely furious last season for falling short in the playoffs and worked hard all off-season and season to get another chance.
I want to see the relentless offense to chase Manea and continue to grind down that depleted Mets bullpen.
Nola has banked a 2.41 ERA in his last 11 starts at Citi Field; on May 14th he went 9, allowed 4 hits, 0 runs and struck out 8. Let's go, so glad Rob saved Nola for this spot.
Yeah I want to see the September 19/20 offense.
Read the Murphy column, and in addition to him raising the question of Rojas/Marsh, his premise seems to be, "if the Phillies can't count on Bohm or Nick to be a middle-of-the-order stud, LF is the only place to find a new one."
As expected, the right-handed lineup tonight. Hays in LF. Rojas in CF. Sosa at 2B with Bohm back at 3B.
Perhaps the Phillies win the next two, but here's a theory I am going with:
When Rob Thompson took over as manager, his laid-back style allowed players to relax and grow. They were, perhaps, underachievers until that point. Now, it appears that Thompson is not an astute manager, and in the postseason, the best-managed teams usually go the farthest. Additionally, the team has no all-star caliber outfielder anymore (since Harper moved to First Base), Casty is prone to prolonged slumps, perhaps due to poor plate discipline, Marsh also is prone to prolonged slumps, Rojas can't hit the broad side of a barn door. Stott, a great infielder, is not good enough with the bat. I would also add that Philly's best hitters are overly streaky.
I don't think either of those things are true. The manager rarely makes a difference in any case and the early rounds remain a total crapshoot. Right now Mendoza looks to be exactly as good a manager as Thomson was in 2022. I reckon Brian Snitker is still a good manager too.
I can see them making a change though. The cries will be loud, and as much as his goal is to win a WS and retire, I could easily see him just agreeing to step aside. I don't really see Dombrowski flat-out dramatically firing him (hello, "senior advisor Rob Thomson!"). But, when the expectations are as high as they are, having the best team of the past three season and the best Phillies team since 2011 might not be enough. Just like Charlie (another guy people thought was too nice and not a strategic genius) eventually wasn't enough, and he had the ring.
I like the way he's run the bullpen for the past three years, I think the running game is pretty good and I think his steadiness is by far a more important managerial quality than calling hit and runs or bunts.
And the manager makes hardly any of these decisions anyway. The platoons, the PH decisions, the style of the play, the style of offense, the defensive positioning, pitching changes, it all starts in the front office anyway.
And in the end it really is the players. Dombrowski tried to make the team a little better defensive but ultimately abandoned that, and in the meantime doubled down on a certain type of hitter (starting with Casty and including Marsh and Turner. He should have found another Schwarber. Or maybe kept Hoskins). And, let us no forget, on old guys, though our young guys have been even more disappointing this year or second half.
