Phillies-Mets NLDS Series Discussion

[zambonir]

Feels like bad juju to start the hot stove talk but if we don't have a Phillies game to watch this weekend, I suspect the likes of Marsh, Rojas and even Bohm will be part of the "change" talk, since the other guys are harder to move. Agree you don't rule out moving on from Casty especially if he has value he obviously did not in April. Would be a big team culture change, but in this scenario it's not a team culture worth preserving indefinitely. (That would also apply to extending Schwarber, but once his deal ends, even if they win a championship, he probably goes the way of Burrell, unless he can be gotten on a short deal.)

Hays is probably cheap enough to bring back in the same role but it really depends what the other pieces in CF and LF are.

[zambonir]

This was also a really nice read. Hard not to root for him to put it back together.

Taijuan Walker isn’t on the playoff roster, but he’s still at the top step of...

[VoteForKalas]

I want to see a determined Phillies team tonight; the Phillies team that was absolutely furious last season for falling short in the playoffs and worked hard all off-season and season to get another chance.

I want to see the relentless offense to chase Manea and continue to grind down that depleted Mets bullpen.

Nola has banked a 2.41 ERA in his last 11 starts at Citi Field; on May 14th he went 9, allowed 4 hits, 0 runs and struck out 8. Let's go, so glad Rob saved Nola for this spot.

[zambonir]

Yeah I want to see the September 19/20 offense.

Read the Murphy column, and in addition to him raising the question of Rojas/Marsh, his premise seems to be, "if the Phillies can't count on Bohm or Nick to be a middle-of-the-order stud, LF is the only place to find a new one."

[andyb]

As expected, the right-handed lineup tonight. Hays in LF. Rojas in CF. Sosa at 2B with Bohm back at 3B.

[MichaelJackSchmidt]

Perhaps the Phillies win the next two, but here's a theory I am going with:

When Rob Thompson took over as manager, his laid-back style allowed players to relax and grow. They were, perhaps, underachievers until that point. Now, it appears that Thompson is not an astute manager, and in the postseason, the best-managed teams usually go the farthest. Additionally, the team has no all-star caliber outfielder anymore (since Harper moved to First Base), Casty is prone to prolonged slumps, perhaps due to poor plate discipline, Marsh also is prone to prolonged slumps, Rojas can't hit the broad side of a barn door. Stott, a great infielder, is not good enough with the bat. I would also add that Philly's best hitters are overly streaky.

[zambonir]

Now, it appears that Thompson is not an astute manager, and in the postseason, the best-managed teams usually go the farthest.

I don't think either of those things are true. The manager rarely makes a difference in any case and the early rounds remain a total crapshoot. Right now Mendoza looks to be exactly as good a manager as Thomson was in 2022. I reckon Brian Snitker is still a good manager too.

I can see them making a change though. The cries will be loud, and as much as his goal is to win a WS and retire, I could easily see him just agreeing to step aside. I don't really see Dombrowski flat-out dramatically firing him (hello, "senior advisor Rob Thomson!"). But, when the expectations are as high as they are, having the best team of the past three season and the best Phillies team since 2011 might not be enough. Just like Charlie (another guy people thought was too nice and not a strategic genius) eventually wasn't enough, and he had the ring.

[MichaelJackSchmidt]

In which area(s) do you witness Thompson's astuteness?

[zambonir]

I like the way he's run the bullpen for the past three years, I think the running game is pretty good and I think his steadiness is by far a more important managerial quality than calling hit and runs or bunts.

And the manager makes hardly any of these decisions anyway. The platoons, the PH decisions, the style of the play, the style of offense, the defensive positioning, pitching changes, it all starts in the front office anyway.

And in the end it really is the players. Dombrowski tried to make the team a little better defensive but ultimately abandoned that, and in the meantime doubled down on a certain type of hitter (starting with Casty and including Marsh and Turner. He should have found another Schwarber. Or maybe kept Hoskins). And, let us no forget, on old guys, though our young guys have been even more disappointing this year or second half.

[fish]

Failure is never the fault of the hitting coach, but isn’t the advice to settle down overaggressive hitters that are getting themselves out to try to take some pitches and work an at bat? They are probably going to throw you a first pitch slider off the plate, so just take it. These guys go to the plate like someone is telling them the only way to find your swing is to swing at everything. Then again, they brought in coaches with a background of working counts to try to get that to stick only to see everyone give up on that a month in. Maybe this is was a club aging 31 and over looks like- just a fraction below what their peak was, but enough that they can’t react like they used to to make the adjustment. Or they don’t want to try to adjust.

[zambonir]

More than a little talk about relievers tipping pitches in this story. Also, Sanchez available out of the pen tomorrow.. Wheeler would still be last resort.

The Phillies look beatable. Everything they’ve built is teetering on the edge....

[LoneStarPhan]

Phillies and Dodgers now down 2 games to one. Both need back to back wins to continue in the postseason.

[gmwannabe]

The better team always does not win....or maybe they do.

[fish]

More than a little talk about relievers tipping pitches in this story.

The Mets jumped on Devin Williams for the same thing- it seems a little fishy that the Mets just became idiot savants all of the sudden.

[andyb]

The better team always does not win....or maybe they do.

I don't think it is really the layoff that has hurt the Phillies, but I do think playing for a playoff spot down the stretch really helps. Our spot (and really the division lead) was never in jeopardy and the Brewers only briefly threatened for the bye. We spent time trying to get Walker and Suarez right and cycling bench players in the lineup who were never going to play much in September.

Playing with some urgency in September may be more important than the wild card layoff.

[bkeich]

He isn’t going to do it, but not moving Wheeler up is a bad idea.

There is no reason to save him for a game 5 if there isn’t one. It is better to have Wheeler and Sanchez on short rest than Suarez overrested and Wheeler.

Maybe we get lucky tonight, but betting the season on a guy who has not pitched well in a long time is not a good plan. We know that Thomson will give him 80-100 pitches unless he puts the game out of reach, so there is no talk of him just going out to get us started. Thomson doesn’t usually do that.

Reverse Jinx please.

[andyb]

Starting Wheeler on short rest seems ill advised to me when you need to win both games. They probably will use Sanchez for an inning too tonight since it is his throwing day. I think you go with Suarez and a short hook (frankly facing elimination would mean a short hook for anybody other than Wheeler).

Bats might need to carry us. Another left-handed starter so we really need Bohm and Hays to step up (and Turner and Castellano and Realmuto). Right-handed bats need to give us much more than we have been getting. Frankly I wonder if Weston Wilson might hit better than Hays given that Hays has given us little since he has been back, but not really expecting that lineup move.

[zambonir]

There's no way Suarez is going 80-100 pitches. If he does, that would be fantastic. Last year he went 3 2/3 and 53 pitches in his first NLDS start. Then 5 and 69. That is always how they have used him in the playoffs. The only time he's even thrown more than 80 pitches in his post-season career was in Game 1 of the 2022 NLDS when he only lasted 3 1/3 (with 5 walks and 5 Ks thus the high count).

It's a lot to put on the pen but they have no choice. Sanchez could help. Wheeler on three days rest is just not a good idea.

It's all about the bats anyway. Can't keep asking these starters to be perfect or pitch from behind. If the offense shows up the series is there for the taking with Wheeler in Game 5. If they don't Wheeler wouldn't be enough (and possibly not his usual self anyway) in Game 4.

[Callison]

Playing slow pitch softball, our team got down 12 in the top of the first inning and after we got the second out, the 3B said, "One thing I like about this team is that it has CHARACTER!" Broke everybody up and we went on to win. Here's hoping something like that happens to the Phils. The season is on the Phils' hitters.

[andyb]

Day off tomorrow so the entire bullpen is available. Doubt they use Alvarado after yesterday unless they have to, but Estevez is the only other one that threw a bunch of pitches. Kind of wish they had the extra RHP in Lazar as an option, but also see how they want Allard to go long in an extra inning game. Assume we can get 4+ outs from Strahm and Hoffman today if we have to and if they pitch well.

As I said earlier though, the bats really need to come through when we are using the back end of the rotation. We probably need to win more of a 6-5 game than a 2-1 game.