Phillies-Mets NLDS Series Discussion

[Deadgmwalking]

That's why it wouldn't surprise me if Harper gets chirpy in the first few innings.

[BostonRoss]

I like that Topper is trying something to try to jumpstart the offense

[gmwannabe]

or panicking. This is unlike him.

[zambonir]

Yep you can read it either way. Also feels a little scapegoaty but it's got to be someone.

[EastFallowfield]

Or they're just covering up that Bohm isn't really healed yet

[MichaelJackSchmidt]

I was watching the pregame on NBC sports Philadelphia and they were saying it's likely due to his temper tantrums when he doesn't get a hit. They think it brings the team down when he acts like that.

[zambonir]

So what you are saying is he's in a time-out.

I don't know that I would read too much into it, especially since everyone on the NBC show is completely over the top. But it could go either way in terms of challenging him to be more mature or making him more frustrated (even if Rob already said he's handling it fine).

Whether he's healed or not obviously most recent slump is post-injury.

[allentown]

I was watching the pregame on NBC sports Philadelphia and they were saying it's likely due to his temper tantrums when he doesn't get a hit. They think it brings the team down when he acts like that.

I'm not convinced it's as bad as the pregame guys claim it is. The hitters are dead. Any emotion might be a plus at this point.

[Aquapong]

Good to get some mojo back. It’ll be nuts in New York.

[andyb]

I'd like to see a fresh Alvarado over using 3 relievers back to back. He must not be looking good in side sessions if they did not use him the last couple of days.

[el-pietro]

Does Bohm come back in on Tuesday? He looked awful up there tonight. But Manaea is a lefty so I could see Sosa at 2nd and Bohm back at third. At least for the first few innings. Imagine we see Hats start in left

[andyb]

I think Bohm is definitely back against left-handed starters. Today was that one day - catch your breath - and then back in the lineup most likely. More curious about the Marsh vs Rojas and Sosa vs Stott decisions. I think both could go either way (Hays will be in left).

Mets could have a lefty in game 4 also, though that could end up being a bullpen game for both teams.

[MichaelJackSchmidt]

I'd like to see a fresh Alvarado over using 3 reliever

My eye sight isn't great, so I thought you said "I'd like to eat a fresh avocado over three rotten ones." I was going to reply, "I agree, but what does this have to do with the Phillies?"

[Jazzhead]

There are few lefties in the Mets lineup (basically just Nimmo), so that could account for Alverado's non-use so far. Of course, Thompson went to lefty Strahm in the ninth yesterday with unfortunate results. I was hoping they'd just leave Estevez in there for a second inning, especially since he'd thrown few pitches in the eighth. For some reason Thompson resists two-inning stints. Luckily it all worked out in the end.

[zambonir]

Yeah, it's true, Alvarado just hasn't been good against RHBs this year so Ruiz and Kerkering were likely seen as better options. And he certainly wasn't getting in the late innings.

I'm sure we'll see multi-inning outings at some point and Estevez did a few but it is not the norm. And both Kimbrel and Alvarado showed signs of overuse last year. I have never really understood the logic that says a pitcher who automatically has one good inning will be just as good in the second, after sitting down, and against different batters. And a lot of this stuff is planned, to point (though obviously the plan to have Strahm get Nimmo, especially, failed in G1). Easy to second-guess when the new pitcher doesn't work out though! Not a great couple of games for Strahm but you gotta have faith that he and Hoffman will be fine. And while there's off-days involved I'm sure Thomson is thinking about heavy bullpen usage in Game 4, for which he'll want every Game 3 guy available too (if the high-leverage guys are needed).

[zambonir]

Orion Kerkering and Carlos Estévez had already been used, but Jeff Hoffman was still available.

“It's just the way it kind of worked out,” Thomson sort of explained after New York tied the score against Strahm. “Those were the pockets that we set up prior to the game for all of those guys.”

What's up with the bullpen? Phillies' most trusted relievers struggling mightily

[andyb]

On Alvarado it was more about the freshness than the left-handedness. Remember we chose a postseason bullpen with 8 pitchers in it including 4 left-handed pitchers. The RHPs all got used, 2 of them (Kerkering and Hoffman) twice. Allard and Alvarado were unused left-handers and Alvarado is actually good. Strahm also got overused a bit (back to back versus a fresh Alvarado).

I know the playoffs are often about riding a hot hand pitching-wise, but it really looks like we used several tired relievers coming off poor games instead of a fresh Alvarado.

Alvarado's August was bad: 9.2 IP, 10 H, 5 ER, 8 BB, 7 K
His September was just fine though: 9.1 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 11 K

I know September was lower leverage, but really it is not as if we should be trying to hide Alvarado like we should have been trying to hide Kimbrel last year. Thomson seems like he is over-correcting here unless there is something else going on with Alvarado (remembering the off field issues that gave him a brief trip home).

Note also that Kerkering had a 5.59 ERA this season on zero days rest. And last year he almost never did that until the playoffs and then was bad in the playoffs.

[zambonir]

All of which does suggest that they just are not confident in Jose for whatever reason. Though I still don't think the guys who had a rough Saturday would be tired or unable to bounce back. They may have more confidence in Kerkering than they should.

[andyb]

I like Kerkering. Just not on zero days rest.

[Jazzhead]

I have never really understood the logic that says a pitcher who automatically has one good inning will be just as good in the second, after sitting down, and against different batters.

Well, it is logic that is expected of a starter - to remain effective over multiple innings, in spite of the "rest" afforded by his own team's at bats. A reliever is supposed to throw as hard as he can from the git-go; that's true. But has there been research suggesting declining effectiveness when a seasoned two-inning reliever pitches his second inning?

I'd think the key factor is that he's only facing new batters at least through two innings. He is a fresh arm to everyone he faces. Wouldn't that be more likely the predictor of continued effectiveness, and of the fundamental utility of the nearly extinct two-inning relief stint in the late innings?