Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[zambonir]

I don't disagree with you but I also think that's not at all the case. Or so he's written.

Philadelphia | By Aaron Nola

By all indication you'd think he'd happily go play in Florida or Texas or even Missouri but I think he loves the organization and loves the city. Ideally re-signing him winds up being as simple as it was with JT.

[bkox]

Should Weston Wilson be on our bench next year?

[zambonir]

Probably not. But he's not a free agent (and don't think) and has options, so he'll be in the mix. Cave's not a free agent either though he's out of options I believe, and less useful if Marsh is the main LF.

It's an impossible question to answer until we know who's playing 1B and RF/LF. If Harper goes back to RF they don't really need a RH bat off the bench, Castellanos will be scraping together playing time in LF and at DH.

[bkox]

Cardinals Interested In Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray

[julio]

A post was split to a new topic: MLB Trade Rumors Popup?

[Aquapong]

I expect our lineup to be pretty similar. I’m not sure I see bringing Hoskins back. Nola’s continued playoff success will likely earn him a good contract extension. Where we can improve is around the edges.

Pache might stay as a backup OF given we’ve seen he can get hot. He’s a good fielder and likely a solid 5th OF. Stubbs could be improved upon, but the team likes him too much.

Sosa, Covey, and Cave are nontender candidates I believe. For the other OF, we need a better RH platoon player. That would give us 4 RH OF’s though, so maybe Pache goes too to upgrade the left side as well? Does Wilson fit here or is he stuck in AAAA mode?

Kimbrel will be a FA, so we will likely need a bp arm.

I expect Abel might join the team at some point whether as a 6th starter later in the year or due to injury. But our rotation will be already set going into ST.

[zambonir]

Well, a lot of us were ready to trade Nick a little while ago and now probably not so much. But everything still turns on Nola, and on Harper's position.

Cave is probably still a respectable 4th OF so long as that is all he is. Clemens is also not a terrible cheap youngish bench player probably. If Pache was LH and Cave was RH it would fit better. Wilson is not a good fit if they don't really think he can play OF. Otherwise, same deal, adequate bench player vs. a lot of bigger names who wouldn't actually be better (i.e. what Josh Harrison was).

I think Pache and Sosa both have trade value (Sosa is still young enough and cheap enough that a non-tender isn't necessary) if they want to change it up. In both cases you just want a LH version of the same player.

I'm sure the Phillies will replace - or maybe even re-sign - Kimbrel with somebody but given the emergence of Hoffman and the likely ascendance of Kerkering, not sure they actually have to.

I just have a gut feeling Dylan Covey isn't going anywhere right away. There has to be something they see in him beyond just "adequate mop-up guy" to have stuck with him so long. Doesn't mean he'll survive March but he should survive December. And someone has to fill that role. I guess Nick Nelson could return there, he even still has an option it seems. But Covey's roster spot seems safer than Bellatti's, maybe even Brogdon's, and certainly more than the other fringe AAA guys (Plassmeyer, Uelmen).

If Harper's the 1B that's probably it for Darrick Hall too.

[bkeich]

Yea, at the start of the season the first defensive switch we all imagined was “you have to put Sosa in for Bohm”, it even happened as I remember. Now, with Bohm’s improvement at defense I don’t think it makes any sense.

I think Rojas will be an automatic defensive replacement. Obviously if Harper can’t play 1B then Scwarber has to be replaced if he is in the OF (oh the horror).

[Patchmk88]

I actually think Sosa is a solid bench player. I’d guess his arb salary will be between 1.5 and 2 million next year. I wouldn’t non tender him.

[zambonir]

Rojas is never going to be a defensive replacement because he's the starting CF. If that's not the case next May it will be because he hit so poorly that he had to be demoted (as opposed to hitting just enough).

(Seems like these last two posts were more in response to the hot stove thread not this one?)

[Patchmk88]

Yea I meant for mine to go into that one.

[phillychuck]

Four posts moved here. pc/mod

[Austinfan]

I think Harper likes 1B more than RF, he's said something about you're more in the action.
And at this point his skill set is better suited to 1B, he'll need some work but adjusted quickly so there's upside as a fielder.

If you bring back Hoskins, you have to trade Schwarber. B/c both are only suited to DH.

So ir'll probably be the same lineup you fielded this year, with Marchan, Muzzioti and Kroon pushing for bench jobs, maybe Dunn. A bunch of young RPs who'll probably start in Lehigh but might surprise in camp.

Comes down to do you resign Nola and at what price, Abel is probably a half year to year away, Painter two years away. McGarry probably more suited to RP duty, and little else in the system for 2-3 years.
Wheeler - ??? - Suarez - Sanchez - Walker
Kerkering, Alvarado, SD, Soto, Schram, Hoffman

Kimbrel will depend on price, see him as a 7th inning guy going forward. Won't pay him closer money.

Lorenzen depends on Nola, won't sign both unless Lorenzen comes in cheap as 6th starter/long RP money.

[zambonir]

I agree Harper seems to be taking to that aspect of 1B (that he's involved in every play).

Sosa is a very good bench player. He's easily a $3-4 million player, even. Just not sure he fits on the Phillies with a RH SS, RH 3B and 2B who doesn't need to sit. He was also overexposed due to being needed more with Bohm at 1B.

But Bohm still needs to sit sometimes. His defense still isn't that good (though Sosa also wasn't always a clear upgrade) and he still struggles with RHP. A solid LH bat there who is no better or worse defensively would be great once or twice a week. That person could also PH for Rojas in key late-inning spots. If he can also play LF, even better.

Right now Lorenzen does look cheaper than he did in early August. Not #6/long RP money, but #5/swingman money (like Strahm got).

[nycphils]

Nola is the best pitcher on the market this offseason - he’s going to get something like 6 years/$180m - Rondon was a similar caliber pitcher on the FA market last year (about 5 WAR per season the two years prior to FA, but he’s never been as durable as Nola and neither Rondon nor Nola has been consistently producing that 4-5+ WAR season like Wheeler), and Rondon got 6 years/$165m from the Yankees.

Looking at it now, I think the Phillies may actually pony up that money, and though not certain that is the best long term choice it is certainly the right choice for 2024. Otani being only a hitter for the next year (and maybe beyond, since it’s his 2nd TJ and that track record isn’t so good) is going to hurt the Phils in trying to retain Nola because teams like the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Cubs, Giants, etc. will look to Nola only as the available ace and thus will be on Nola from minute 1 instead of distracted trying to initially pay Otani $50-60m to play both ways.

If they don’t get Nola, the pickings are slim at SP - (1) Urias would have been interesting but can’t see the Phils pursuing him giving the domestic violence issues, (2) Blake Snell may be a target but he’s not as durable and not as good (even with his home park being Petco, his last 4 seasons WAR have been 1.0, 1.4, 2.1 and now 6.0 in his walk year). (3) Sonny Gray could be interesting on a 2-3 year deal (he’s 33, but last 3 years WAR 3.3, 2.3 and 5.3), but he famously wilted with the NYY and so not sure the Philly pressure cooker is a good spot for him.

The other choice seems to be Abel. I think he needs at least the first couple of months in the minors, if not the full season, to continue to refine his command. Tough decision coming on Nola for sure - the rest of the rotation is fine with Wheeler for one more season, Ranger and Walker property of the Phillies through 2026, and Sanchez through at least 2028 if they want him through his arb years. I won’t be surprised if they resign Lorenzen as a 6th starter/swing man out of the pen.

[zambonir]

There are certainly other Walker-type signings in the mid-range who might be better than Lorenzen. But they'd have to get 3-4 years probably. On this list (besides Yamamoto) it's Giolito, Montgomery, Flaherty and Lorenzen.

Ranking the top 10 starting pitchers set to hit free agency

And then:

Honorable mentions: Luis Severino, Kyle Gibson, James Paxton, Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill, Brad Keller, Martin Perez, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Alex Wood, Carlos Carrasco, Zack Greinke.

If you think Abel's in the mix or you're prepared to do a deadline deal you could go a one-year deal on someone like that for depth.

But I think it's Nola. Snell and Gray probably both have QOs too so I don't do that to save $.

[andyb]

Looking at it now, I think the Phillies may actually pony up that money, and though not certain that is the best long term choice it is certainly the right choice for 2024

One way to think about this is that the Phillies will likely make a healthy profit the next couple of years. They won't need any compensation free agents also next year if they get Nola. So it is not as if they will endanger the financial health of the team if they overpay for Nola.

Schwarber and Castellanos deals are not looking too bad also. And they will likely not get significant extensions when those contracts are up. The payroll will still be over the luxury tax line the next few years but there are many ways to keep it under the higher tiers where there are draft penalties.

[bkox]

At this point I think a Nola extension is a no brainer. With the mechanical change they made a few weeks ago he looks much better. And he will have spring training (and a year of experience) to improve his pitch clock issues.

I think there will be bigger hand wringing next year about whether to re-sign a 35yo Zack Wheeler after next season.

[zambonir]

I think there will be bigger hand wringing next year about whether to re-sign a 35yo Zack Wheeler after next season.

That one actually seems easier as long as he's realistic about the term given his age. But you pay him somewhere between Charlie Morton and Verlander at similar points in their career.

The dream would have been for Painter to smoothly replace one or the other with Abel a capable 3-4; at least they have a year to see about the latter.

[Aquapong]

True dat. I can’t see signing a 35 yo pitcher to a long deal, but a high AAV deal could be in the cards. We’ll see…Painter and Abel will likely be factored in by that point. So maybe we just let him ride off into the sunset and know we got his best years at a good price.