Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[bkox]

Painter and Abel will likely be factored in by that point. So maybe we just let him ride off into the sunset and know we got his best years at a good price.

Rotation of
Nola
Suarez
Walker
Painter
Abel

is a possibility.

[zambonir]

Seems unlikely you can write Painter into the '25 rotation in ink. He will basically start that spring training back where he started this one, with a 50% chance of being the #5 with upside and a 50% chance of needing a couple of months to a half-season in AAA.

Sign Nola first and we shall see. But if they don't sign Nola, I extend Wheeler immediately (if he'll do it).

[Aquapong]

Hopefully Sanchez will still factor in and not disappear like Falter did and Painter won’t need to be rushed.

[bkox]

Ohhh. I totally forgot Sanchez

If we resign Nola.. our offseason could be pretty boring. Lineup is pretty set. Rotation could be set with Wheeler, Nola, Walker, Suarez and Sanchez.

Pen: Big decision is Kimbrel. But we already have
Alvarado
Strahm
Kerkering
Seranthony
Soto
Hoffman

[zambonir]

Sanchez is certainly better than Falter ever was but it remains to be seen where he ultimately lands. And the same is true of Walker (aging and only just a #4 now) and Ranger (#2 talent but closer to a #4 in durability and performance overall so far).

Nothing wrong with any of the above but if you subtract one or both Nola and Wheeler it's a very different picture.

Honestly pretty funny to me how quickly people are back to wanting Nola in the fold based on a good month and some perceived adjustments. It was equally dubious to not want him back based on a couple of subpar months. It has always been the best call, and even if he had continued to struggle he wasn't going to be be a bargain. But the good late-season performance/recency bias combined with the changes to the market (no Ohtani, no Urias) means his price has also probably gone back up.

[bkox]

Honestly pretty funny to me how quickly people are back to wanting Nola in the fold based on a good month and some perceived adjustments

I would like to point out Ive always been in support of bringing Nola back lol

[zambonir]

yeah I didn't mean anyone in particular or even just here.

[el-pietro]

I've always wanted Nola back too. A large part of that is the lack of alternatives.

[Austinfan]

The issue with Nola has always been price.

[zambonir]

Not really. It's just a negotiation. The Phillies hoped to get a discount by locking him up early and he preferred to let the possibility of going to the open market drive up his price. Whatever leverage Nola lost by not having a spectacular season is likely counterbalanced by the leverage the Phillies lost by none of their three prospects being ready and the free agent pitching market shrinking.

The Phillies clearly have very little true concern about overpaying players, and seeing as how he is a homegrown player who also gave them an extension discount they should ultimately give him whatever he wants if they really want him. They can afford it, and can also live with a few dead years (while still paying for replacements if necessary, unlike the 2012 and 2013 Phillies). The only thing that has to be managed is the tax #, which the Phillies generally address by giving out longer terms.

Of course if the Dodgers or Rangers make some kind of crazy offer, walk away. Teams like STL, HOU and ATL are less likely to do that.

Either way a team without Nola has bigger problems than a team that's overpaying Nola.

[allentown]

Me too.

Zambonir: not sure how many $/years Nola gets-- regular season a bit of an off year for him, but WHIP still excellent and just short of 200 IP. Not at all sure that post-season wipes regular season away as teams evaluate him.

[nycphils]

I don’t think the playoff wipe away the season struggles, but given the dearth of high end pitching available this offseason and his durability, I would be surprised if he doesn’t match or best Rondon’s deal.

[zambonir]

Yeah his generally consistent underlying numbers and the fact that there are easily identified variables with the current season - as well as his established history of having a mix of excellent, very good and merely good years - ultimately bodes well for him. This past season does not necessarily suggest age-related decline. As long as there's more than one team who thinks he has two or three good years left, and multiple teams who do not shy away from over-30 free agents, he's gonna do well.

And while Nola's hardly the guy driving ticket or merch sales compared to the position players the Philles-for-life thing has its own value separate from performance. Unless Dombrowski actually advises against re-signing him Middleton is not going to let him go (he likely was not involved at all last off-season but will be when the rubber hits the road, just as he was with JT).

Hopefully we'll see that "Sign Nola" t-shirt on Bryce at a parade.

[bkox]

Aaron Nola, soon to be among the top pitchers available in free agency, on possibly re-signing with the #Phillies : pic.twitter.com/BynFG99cqh

— Scott Lauber ( @ScottLauber ) October 16, 2023

[zambonir]

Lots of good restaurants in other places, but when you have your favorites...

Where four of the Phillies love to eat in Philly

Nola’s tastes include Japanese food, as he listed the intimate Hiroki in Fishtown and the romantic Double Knot in Center City. He also enjoys Barbuzzo, a stylish Mediterranean bar-restaurant, and Butcher & Singer, a posh steak house, in Center City, as well as the sultry Suraya in Fishtown, whose menu is inspired by Lebanon.

[andyb]

But it is another reason to make sure you have a LH LF (with Marsh in CF) for next year.

Which could easily be Bryce Harper. There is no reason at all Bryce could not play the OF next year. The team has yet to make a decision about 1B. If Harper plays the OF we might just have Marsh and a RH bat (Rojas or Pache) in CF. The bench would still have one more flexible bat somewhere. Might actually be Clemens again since he bats left-handed and can play OF as well as IF.

[MichaelJackSchmidt]

During the postseason he has been overwhelmed. I would like to see him play throughout the winter. I just don't think he's got skills yet. He was new this year, MLB pitching didn't quite know what to do with him, however, the post season is a different story. They obviously studied him quite a bit and it paid off.

[zambonir]

Winter ball is only like 15 or 20 games so it's hardly a cure-all. He just needs to work on stuff in the off-season and spring training regardless. But he's still not looking like a guy they're gonna send to minors. And once it's not post-season opposition and scouting he'll have the luxury of ups and downs for several months.

[allentown]

Last year, Stott was overwhelmed. Proof that improvement is possible.

[Austinfan]

There is one reason, he was below average defensively two years ago, I doubt he's improved. He has more upside at 1B, b/c I don't want Hoskins there. Hoskins is a DH. Bohm is staying at 3B.

Rojas would struggle to compensate for Castellanos and Harper in the corners, Marsh would be overwhelmed.