Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[zambonir]

I would. It's only money - the cash is certainly not an issue for this team and the CBT doesn't seem to be either. And not being obligated to him past one year is probably worth $5-8 million in and of itself (in cash, not CBT thresholds). The Phillies overpaying Hoskins for his make-good year seems like a win for both sides.

I don't think the injury will actually affect his value that much. Any more than an even more extensive injury history (and being a pitcher) hurt Eflin's. That means there is probably a three-year deal out there for him. I wouldn't be too eager to give that out if I were the Phillies. And I'd be more focused on keeping Nola. But it really comes down to how much both sides want it, and where else Hoskins and Nola might consider going (both geographically and in terms of chance to win).

[LoneStarPhan]

I would try to sign a one year deal with Hoskins at less than QO value before the free agency period starts. If unable to do so, I think I would hesitate to do the QO. I really do not know what his value would be on the open market, but don't think it will be at that level. If I recall correctly, I don't think the draft pick return is that great if you do a QO and he signs elsewhere. Then again, maybe $20MM or so is not a big deal for the Phillies for next season. I think Rhys would like to come back and might do so on a one year deal to reestablish himself as a productive offensive force.

One concern I have is that the Phillies already have too many players that are not top defenders and Rhys adds another . Of course, they might end up moving someone else. This is not your old style front office. DD usually does a few things that I didn't see coming.

[Jazzhead]

Would you extend a QO?

I would. If he accepts, then he can platoon at first base, mixing and matching things with Harper, Scharbs and Casti. All four could be in the lineup certain nights with, obviously, a big role assigned to Rojas and his range in CF. But right now I think Casti has become a pretty darn good outfielder and if he could move to left I think an outfield of Casti, Rojas and Harper, with Rhys at first and Schwarbs at DH might be the ticket, with offense in spades. ,

[zambonir]

Yeah when you remember how low the compensation is (just a 4th-rounder) the truth is the only reason to offer the QO is either in the hope that he takes it or the hope that it depresses his market value. But he's not going to sign a one-year deal for less than the QO prior to free agency. You'd have to give him two or even three years. Possibly with a player opt-out as well as a team option.

The consensus before Rhys got hurt was he wanted Goldschmidt money ($26 million AAV, five years) and probably couldn't get it. But I think he was always going to top $20 million AAV and I don't necessarily think the injury ends that. Maybe it's slightly less or on a shorter deal (three years instead of four or five) but on a one-year deal the QO price is probably right on the money (no pun intended).

Castellanos makes $20 million. Schwarbs makes $19.75. Yeah you still don't know what Rhys is going to play like post-injury but Castellanos still got paid just the same for last year, and Turner for the first half of this year. It is a risk any team takes in free agency.

[zambonir]

But right now I think Casti has become a pretty darn good outfielder and if he could move to left I think an outfield of Casti, Rojas and Harper, with Rhys at first and Schwarbs at DH might be the ticket, with offense in spades. ,

Who did you get for trading Marsh?

Castellanos has become a better outfielder. He's not a good one. He's also not anywhere near the hitter the Phillies are paying him to be, even this year, and likely won't be again. I keep Marsh and demote Nick to part-time player (as the RHB that's just the reality) if you can't trade him.

Of course Harper isn't really that good an OF anymore either which is why the simplest solution - and likely the best thing to preserve his health and production as he ages - is indeed the status quo. If he's RF and Marsh is LF and Schwarbs is DH you could theoretically find 30 starts for Nick at each of those spots, but you wouldn't actually want to reduce Harper or Schwarber's starts I don't think.

[BostonRoss]

As much as I like Rhys, I don't think there's a place for him on the 2024 Phillies, barring some unexpected departure of or injury to one of the other 1B/DH types. Sentiment is not a good way to build a winning team.

The Phillies already have to play defensively bad players in RF and at 1B. Harper may yet improve at 1B with more experience, but he was not a good defensive outfielder before the injury. Re-signing Hoskins would mean Schwarber or Harper in the outfield more often.

If Trout were acquired, he would have to play OF or also force Schwarber into the OF.

[BaseballCat]

As much as I love Rhys, I think they need to let him go. No QO, that money can be better spent. Last year we knew what we would be getting with Rhys; next year not so much. We have enough defensive issues, we can’t keep adding them.

[andyb]

I doubt they risk the QO for Rhys since he either signs long term (what they don't want - something like 4/60 or 4/70) or he signs a short term incentive laden deal (like for $12 million but he could make up to $25 million through incentives).

Just not much incentive to risk paying him $20.5 million for a 4th round pick. If Rhys wants to stay and senses the long term deals will be disappointing, they'll come to an agreement pretty quickly.

[zambonir]

I think Rhys is going to do better than that. Players come back from ACL surgery all the time. And Rhys may not be a Harper-like medical marvel or great fielder but he's still an elite and well-conditioned athlete. It's also less risky than just signing an injury-prone player.

I'm not sure incentives do anything for anybody since the issue is not whether he's able to play, but how he performs (which can't be incentivized). It would just be awkward and ugly if he was signed to play 1B or DH and then had to be benched. But also very unlikely (certainly not something I could imagine our manager doing).

I think there is a general consensus here that if the Phillies can steal Rhys - whether on a much cheaper and not overly long deal than he previously might have earned or for one year - they should maybe do it, and if not, not. The market will decide. But I would still be pretty okay with him taking the QO, or not taking the QO. Or coming back to the Phillies ready to give the discount if the QO - which will cost most signing teams more than the Phillies receive - depresses his market.

[fish]

I don't think there is a risk in offering him a QO- I could see him being geared up and prepared to have a big 35 plus homer 110 plus RBI seasons after having to play cheerleader this year. I don't want to bet on him for the longer term, and I actually prefer their roster defensively without him, but I'd bet he's got a big season ahead of him.

[Jazzhead]

don't want to bet on him for the longer term, and I actually prefer their roster defensively without him, but I'd bet he's got a big season ahead of him.

I think so too. That's why I don't mind risking extending the QO and working him into the lineup if he accepts.. A lot depends on whether Harper is willing and able to play a corner outfield position, so our weakest defender - Schwarber - can DH most days.

[andyb]

. A lot depends on whether Harper is willing and able to play a corner outfield position,

Willingness has never been an issue with Harper. And there is nothing with the injury that would suggest playing the OF is a problem. After all he is throwing at 1B now with no issues.

A different question is whether the Phillies are better with Harper in the OF or at 1B. Is a healthy 800 OPS Hoskins better than any OF platoon we might have with Bryce at 1B?

I am not sure what the answer is, but I assume Bryce will do whatever helps the team the most and not care really where he plays.

[Jazzhead]

I am not sure what the answer is, but I assume Bryce will do whatever helps the team the most and not care really where he plays.

I wonder whether Bryce - clearly an interested party in more ways than one - will provide his opinion to management regarding bringing Rhys back. He tends to do such things.

[andyb]

I imagine he would. And he'd probably prefer Rhys back all things being equal. There is a real possibility that Hoskins would not be replaced with a full time starter (either OF or 1B). So if the choice is Rhys vs a platoon then I am guessing Bryce would want Rhys.

[zambonir]

One could ask the same question about Nola.

[andyb]

I fully expect them to replace Nola with another $20 million plus arm if he leaves. Just not sure about Hoskins since they have the backlog of DH types. They might bring in another bat if Hoskins left, but probably more a complementary piece (i.e. better than Cave or Pache).

[zambonir]

I feel like like Hoskins is actually more replaceable by platoon and bench players than Nola is by a FA. Snell is just about the only available (American) FA and he costs a pick (and possibly more $).

But I don't think Bryce is that analytical about this stuff. JT was technically replaceable. Bryson Stott wasn't really ready last year. The other FA shortstops this off-season were all good. He campaigned for JT and Bryson and Trea because they were his dudes, and no doubt he'll do the same for Rhys. But....

[andyb]

A new pitcher could easily come by trade. And we have been looking at the Japanese guy too beyond Snell.

[Lucky_Beagle]

It seems the "cheapest" cost to replacing Nola with a Nola type player is to resign him. No lost draft pick, no posting fee, and no traded minor Leaguers. The question will be does he want to return and for what cost and length.

[phillychuck]

I don't know if it's Nola's demeanor or what, but he never seems to be that happy to be in Philly--you don't see him in the team celebrations or doing the high-5 thing on the bench. I wouldn't be surprised if he was not keen on resigning, but I'm just extrapolating body language, which is always really just guessing.