Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

[EDmuch]

Baseball is bad. Things are looking good.

[bkox]

Phillies made a small move, signing catcher Austin Wynns to a minor-league deal with an invite to big-league camp. Had some time in the bigs last season with Baltimore.

— Matt Gelb ( @MattGelb ) March 19, 2022

[andyb]

I still would not mind the team adding a depth starter if someone like Drew Smyly is available on a modest 1-year deal. Lots of readiness questions at the beginning of the year and we will definitely need a 6th starter at some point anyway.

That catching move may be the realization that they can't have 4 catchers on the 40-man roster logistically and they will have to try to get Sands to AAA through waivers at some point. Probably 50-50 that will be successful, so we'll need a veteran at AAA to replace Sands if they lose him. Given that they need to make two yet to be announced 40-man moves already for Schwarber and Castellanos the Sands move might have already started.

[David_Criss]

https://twitter.com/MattGelb/status/1505525317041102848
Torreyes back on a minor league deal - makes sense. Put him at third or SS in the late innings.

[Austinfan]

Given the paucity of real prospects at AA and AAA, they're probably trying to load up on veterans to provide a decent product while building organizational depth in case of a plethora of injuries.

[zambonir]

They always end up adding catchers during spring training. Wynns could still easily have an opt-out.

[allentown]

They may not be 'real prospects' by the standards of other teams, but Reading and Allentown will have almost all of our top position prospects at some point this year: Rojas, O'Hoppe, Marchan, Ortiz, Muzziotti, Stott, Luis Garcia, casey Martin, Luke Williams, and the not-really-still-a-prospect Kingery.

[nycphils]

Several random thoughts looking at those projected lineups, and thinking about vet contract status:

1. Stott might be the single most pivotable guy in terms of building a contender the next few years - if he flops, the Phils have basically no one until 2024 at least, and only then if Luis Garcia can recapture something or Nick Maton discovers another level. If he does flop I think you are looking at a Freddy Galvis type at SS for a year or two at least. If he succeeds in looking even league average, that makes a huge difference and allow us to not spend any $ on that important spot on the field.

2. On the pitching side, it is Ranger Suarez and Wheeler’s health. Even if they are what they were last year, will need to fill 3 spots in the 2023 rotation and Eflin, Gibson and Nola combine to make only $29m. If either one struggles, I don’t see how the rotation can be counted on at all to contend given the $ available and the dearth of high level SPs in the minors - at that point you are praying for a Falter/Cruse/Abel/Erik Miller miracle.

3. Hoskins definitely won’t be resigned. If I were forced to make a bet, I think you will see Hoskins for Laureano type deal - the A’s get 1 extra year of control from Hoskins (Laureano is a FA after 2022), and both are roughly 2.5-3.0 WAR players. Maybe we send Odubel or Moniak or Haseley along as well.

4. Bullpen wildcard is Seranthony. If he bounces back, the pen could actually be good.

[zambonir]

Stott might be the single most pivotable guy in terms of building a contender the next few years - if he flops, the Phils have basically no one until 2024 at least, and only then if Luis Garcia can recapture something or Nick Maton discovers another level. If he does flop I think you are looking at a Freddy Galvis type at SS for a year or two at least. If he succeeds in looking even league average, that makes a huge difference and allow us to not spend any $ on that important spot on the field.

On the pitching side, it is Ranger Suarez and Wheeler’s health. Even if they are what they were last year, will need to fill 3 spots in the 2023 rotation and Eflin, Gibson and Nola combine to make only $29m. If either one struggles, I don’t see how the rotation can be counted on at all to contend given the $ available and the dearth of high level SPs in the minors - at that point you are praying for a Falter/Cruse/Abel/Erik Miller miracle.

Hoskins definitely won’t be resigned. If I were forced to make a bet, I think you will see Hoskins for Laureano type deal - the A’s get 1 extra year of control from Hoskins (Laureano is a FA after 2022), and both are roughly 2.5-3.0 WAR players. Maybe we send Odubel or Moniak or Haseley along as well.

They could still end up moving to Stott to 2B and investing in a SS, though obviously it would be easier/better to just find a new 2B. Some of this also depends on Bohm (because if he flops that's another hole) and Kingery/Camargo (if either emerge as bonus starting-caliber players).

Correa will likely be available next year, and Rosenthal just wrote that Boras tried really hard to get the Braves interested. That could happen again next year (making Swanson a FA too).

We have Nola in 2023. He'd have to be disastrous or seriously injured for them not to pick up his option.

Laureano is not a free agent until 2025 (based on the lost service time of his suspension, though that may not be fully decided). Even w/o that it's not until 2024. So he costs you a lot more than Hoskins, who is actually less controlled/more expensive.

[allentown]

Stott might be the single most pivotable guy in terms of building a contender the next few years - if he flops, the Phils have basically no one until 2024 at least, and only then if Luis Garcia can recapture something or Nick Maton discovers another level. If he does flop I think you are looking at a Freddy Galvis type at SS for a year or two at least. If he succeeds in looking even league average, that makes a huge dif

True, Stott is big, but I think the biggest guy is Rojas.

For the next couple years, Kingery is huge.

I just don't think Stott has the necessary defense to be our SS of the future. He might be able to play SS for us this season and be better defensively and as good all-around as Didi, but I think he plays 2B in 2023.

There is a lot of $ coming off the books for 2023 and I wouldn't be at all surprised if the team makes a major addition to the rotation.

[zambonir]

You still really love Kingery! I think we'll be lucky if he gets 200 ABs this year and really lucky if he's a starter next year (and if Stott is the 2B, he won't be). He could also be traded, though his value as depth is probably greater than his trade value (even if you're trying to shed him to manage the CBT).

They seem pretty serious about Rojas for next year which is another reason why they didn't pursue Laureano (seemingly only kicking the tires on Chapman). But they also claim to be serious about Stott as SS (about which opinions are mixed obviously).

[andyb]

Of the stalled high picks (Kingery, Moniak, Haseley) I would bet we see more of Haseley this year than anyone else. He'll have to be better than Herrera to be more than an injury callup, but I am guessing there is a better chance of that happening than the others progressing. Moniak has too many holes in his swing at the moment and Kingery's health and swing are both in question.

[zambonir]

Somebody's probably gotta go from the 40 before camp breaks (even with the Emanuel news and the presumed removal of a catcher). Probably can't carry 20 position players on the 40. And neither Stott nor Kingery are on it either. Even if they go to 28-man rosters for two weeks the 40 might not expand.

[allentown]

You still really love Kingery! I think we'll be lucky if he gets 200 ABs this year and really lucky if he's a starter next year (and if Stott is the 2B, he won't be).

Yeah, Kingery is a fairly long-time favorite of mine. He won't be in Philly the first half of the season, and will bat well down the lineup if he plays, so 200 AB this year is a reasonable goal. I think he could play a bigger role in 2023 with both CFs and IFs leaving the team. I guess I should temper my enthusiasm for the kids with the realization that the Phillies forte in player development lies in messing up young talent. Part of this may be not teaching how to counter-adjust to the changes pitchers make after a rookie hitter starts strong. This requires flexibility in instructing how a hitter approaches an AB and even his swing. Pitchers seem to quickly figure out the holes in a young hitter's approach. Perhaps ending the shift will limit that. In retrospect, it's amazing the league took so long to figure out and neutralize Howard. Today, he probably gets only one or two plus seasons.

[Austinfan]

Think Rojas will start in high A, same with Garcia and Martin, maybe Muzzioti as well.
They didn't get full seasons at Lakewood last year.
They'll get promoted when they show they're ready to jump.

Stott may make the team out of camp.

That leaves O'Hoppe and Marchan as "real" prospects.
Ortiz, Haseley, Moniak, Williams, Kingery and a lot of bullpen arms in AA and AAA to start the season.

[jimbomill]

Hoskins definitely won’t be resigned.

I like Hoskins. Until he had to cave into the pain last year, he was probably one of our 3 best players. I'd wait until seeing what he does this season before closing the door on him.

[zambonir]

I have no issues with Hoskins, but if he's healthy and playing well he will be overpriced as a free agent, even in the DH era. If he's not, or if teams continue to shy away from older, not-elite players, he might be cheap (or even a non-tender candidate before his final arb year).

I think what you wait on here is not so much Hoskins as Bohm. You just don't need three poor-fielding RH bats in the long run (if one of them can't play 3B).

The bold move would actually be to re-sign him now and try too spread out the AAV but I don't think he switched agents to Boras to give the Phillies a discount on his first couple of years of free agency (and the Phillies don't really need the AAV relief this season now).

[allentown]

I think they probably do start in high A, but I am expecting more than half a season at Reading for the best performer between Rojas and Muzziotti. That allows both to play full-time in CF.

[andyb]

I think Muzziotti starts at AA to let Rojas play CF most of the time in High A. O'Hoppe in AA too with Marchan in AAA.

Muzziotti lost time but is older than Rojas and running out of options much sooner. He needs to be pushed or he'll be lost in a year or two.

[LoneStarPhan]

Muzziotti is on the 40 man roster but has 3 option years remaining, so there is still time for him to get sufficient time in the minors.

Rojas is not yet on the 40 man roster and is rule 5 eligible if not added this coming November. If he is not called to the Phillies this season, he will be added to the 40 man roster in November in advance of the rule 5 draft in December 2022. Then he will have 3 option years available.

So Muzziotti is one year ahead of Rojas in terms of development time left and deadlines.

Ortiz is in the same position as Muzziotti. On the 40 man roster with 3 option years left.

Haseley, Moniak, and Vierling all have 2 options left.