Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

[EDmuch]

Well hopefully this is premature and we somehow rally to a playoff spot. But to be fair, there are already some of us who are looking ahead to "next year". So we might as well have this spot to organize our thoughts

[julio]

Five back in the loss column, with 19 to play…and with at least three “bullpen games” pending?

Only 2.5 back for the last wild card slot - but three clubs ahead of us?

Nah, it’s not premature.

[Austinfan]

Unfortunately, this isn't the Phillies of two decades ago, with a lot of young talent in the lineup, only needing a few decent pitchers to be a juggernaut. Right now you have Hoskins and his defensive liabilities, Bohm and his regression and ??? to go with Harper. Realmuto is 30 and is what he is, a middle of the road bat who has value b/c he's a top catcher. Cutch can only return at half price as a platoon LF, Didi is overpaid trash, Segura is a solid 2B over 30 with one year left. Herrera is out the door.

This is where Domo has to shine this offseason and the development guys have to find a way for Bohm, Moniak, Haseley, Randolph, Maton, Williams, Stott, Marchan to reach their potential - I mean there is a lot of talent near the majors, but potential ain't production. And the kids at Jersey Shore, even if they break out next year, aren't going to show up until 2023 or 2024.

Losing DLS was not a good start, not that he was going to be a world beater, but cheap bullpen depth frees up a few million that this team will need in 2022.

[bigegypt0417]

The Phillies will need pitching and then more pitching.

Honestly...they need another 2 Kyle Gibson types, an actual closer and then they can worry about a couple of bats.

Maybe a guy like Jonathan Gray and others who fit that profile.

Again...the phillies are not that far away from being a playoff team.

You also have to hope that 2021 Nola is just an anomaly but he's also more than likely a step away from what he was.

[andyb]

he development guys have to find a way for Bohm, Moniak, Haseley, Randolph, Maton, Williams, Stott, Marchan to reach their potential

I don't think you can count on that. From your list I see 2 or 3 major league starters that might be at least average. Stott, Williams and then maybe pick one of Marchan, Moniak, and Haseley. That is not enough to make the team good or really save much money compared to other organization lineups that have even more young players.

[bigegypt0417]

If you can get a couple of those to be effective bench pieces for 2022, you're doing ok.

Stott may be more than that but probably not next season.

[zambonir]

Losing DLS was not a good start, not that he was going to be a world beater, but cheap bullpen depth frees up a few million that this team will need in 2022.

That's the least of their problems. He was going to be out of options and not even a lock for the off-season 40 anyway. No different from losing Edgar Garcia, Yacksel Rios, Eudabray Ramos or Arano. It's actually shocking not one of those guys has given the Phillies any reason for regrets. But fungible is fungible, and you need fungible guys with options at the bottom of the pen. I would even go so far as to say that cost the Phillies a few games this year, because they kept guys like Hale and Kintzler and even VV and Anderson in the bullpen longer than they should have, as opposed to what they just did with Rosso (though he could also end up DFAed again himself).

the development guys have to find a way for Bohm, Moniak, Haseley, Randolph, Maton, Williams, Stott, Marchan to reach their potential

May as well include Kingery in this, he has just as good a chance to be a productive major leaguer as most of the players on that list (which is not a good thing).

Anyway maybe this post will be the reverse jinx.

[bkox]

May as well include Kingery in this,

Is it bad that I completely forgot Kingery existed?

[andyb]

Is it bad that I completely forgot Kingery existed?

I just assumed you were taking the opposite position that this club is so deep it can't even put a sure fire major league regular like Kingery on the 40 at this time.

[zambonir]

It's bad that nobody besides Bohm (with myriad unknowns), Stott (with position TBD) and Marchan (as a back-up) have no more upside than Kingery. But hey at least he doesn't take up a 40-man spot this off-season!

And "Development guys" won't even be working with most of those names on AF's list. They are at the end of their development and largely the responsibility of the major league coaching staff come February. Whoever finally gets hired to run that department will have his hands full settling in, and worrying about the guys in AA and below.

[andyb]

Gelb chat today covers much of the ground we have talked about here. He expects the Phillies to give competing another year. Anticipates at least one big trade. Then spending $200 million+ as a necessity to compete. Also would release Gregorius. I do wonder if they should just put Stott at SS and accept below average defense with what should be above average offense from SS. He is probably not 100% ready, but he might be 90% and is that good enough (so they can spend elsewhere)?

Live Q&A: Matt Gelb answers your Phillies questions

[Taudawg]

There needs to be a fair amount of roster turnover. This is roughly the same .500 team of 2018-2020. I would let all the free agents and buy-out/option players go - Cutch, Odubel, Neris, Bradley, etc. They can't bring back most of the same team and expect a different result. The rotation, if healthy, will be a strength.

I would like them to take another run at a one year deal for Andrelton Simmons and maybe bring Galvis back to back him up. Go defensive first with SS and CF and find a bat to plug in LF.

[bkox]

I would bring back Neris.

[andyb]

Hector is durable, popular in the clubhouse, and won't get closer money. I might want him back next year. For Archie Bradley type money do we want Archie Bradley or Hector?

[bkox]

For Archie Bradley type money do we want Archie Bradley or Hector?

Bradley 3 years younger. Neris has had the better season. Bradley's WHIP is over 1.4 this year. Neris strikes out a lot more hitters. But Neris seems to have this good year, bad year, good year, bad year thing going.

[zambonir]

Definitely Hector. My only fear is he's been so freakin' durable that it seems like age or injury will get him eventually. I also don't think he would have had a "bad year" last season had it been a season. Just the same bumps he has almost every season (but who doesn't, at least on the Phillies?)

Bradley is younger but has shown more signs of deterioration.

And of course you probably still need a closer, or just one more really good reliever to replace Bradley or Kennedy. Hopefully Seranthony can be counted on.

I gotta think Didi can still be traded. Pick up 50-66% of his salary for a few lottery tickets. If not, you keep him for half a season and hope he can bounce back at the plate in a platoon/bench. I think if you rush Stott I'd rather see that happen at 2B. It's also hard not to look at Kingery, Haseley and Bohm and think a rushed promotion is a good idea, even though every player is different.

[julio]

There needs to be a fair amount of roster turnover.

Not to worry; there will be.

Eight free agents:

Cam Bedrosian
Archie Bradley
Ian Kennedy
Matt Moore
Hector Neris
Freddy Galvis
Brad Miller
Matt Joyce

None of these guys will get a Qualifying offer - none of them is worth that. Any of them might choose to re-sign with the Phils (if asked), but none of them is remotely a lock to do so, and all eight may depart.

Club Options:

Odubel Herrera
Andrew McCutchen

The Phils will buy out Herrera - it's $10 million cheaper (at least) than exercising the option. IMHO, they'll also likely buy out McCutchen - that will free up $12 million, and it's easy to see them concluding that a 2022 McCutchen isn't worth $15 million.

Arbitration-eligible Players:

Zach Eflin
Jose Alvarado
Seranthony Dominguez
Andrew Knapp
Rhys Hoskins
Ronald Torreyes
Travis Jankowski
Roman Quinn

Some of these guys will be non-tendered. Tendering Eflin, Dominguez, Hoskins look like no-brainers to me; the other five? I don't know - I don't expect all five to be non-tendered, but three (four?) of these five? Could be.

So... six (or more) free agents depart. One or two contracts are bought out. Three or four arbitration-eligibles are non-tendered. That's 10 to 14 players departing, almost all of them currently on the 28-man active roster (all but Jankowski and Quinn). Enough turnover for you?

[andyb]

Arbitration-eligible Players:

Zach Eflin
Jose Alvarado
Seranthony Dominguez
Andrew Knapp
Rhys Hoskins
Ronald Torreyes
Travis Jankowski
Roman Quinn

I tender Hoskins, Seranthony, Eflin, and Alvarado. The others could come back on minor league deals, but I expect most will not. We simply need a better backup catcher than Knapp and Torreyes really has gone back to what he is (replacement level utility infielder). Girardi might want him back which theoretically is fine if there are new starting 3B and SS (along with Segura at 2B). Jankowski and Quinn will only get minor league deals I suspect. Jankowski might figure he has a decent chance at playing time again. Quinn will probably go to where he has a shot at a job most likely on some rebuilding team.

Seranthony and Alvarado should be very affordable. Hoskins is worth it though could also be a trade candidate. I guess if Eflin's injury is more serious they could think about non-tendering him, but his surgery probably cuts his arbitration amount a bit so I think he comes back.

[zambonir]

Boy that Matt Gelb Q&A was depressing! And while he said they'd spend $200+ he also said they'd probably "never" exceed the CBT, and have too many holes to even buy at the top of the SS FA market.

[EDmuch]

If they do not exceed the CBT, there is really no good reason to root for the 2022 team. They will be a 78-84 win team thAt if they somehow get a playoff spot will be one game & out. The only real reason to follow a below CBT Phillies team would be as something to occupy extra time in the summer.