Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

[zambonir]

Well, it's the classic definition of insanity. But so is continuing to just buy expensive talent. It is up to Dombrowski to do what Klentak could not, and he himself failed to do this past season except for a few bullpen pieces - make some cost-effective roster upgrades via modest trades, medium-sized FA moves, or a savvy "my problem for your problem" deal involving Kingery or Didi.

Perhaps the potential labor dispute will make things easier/less predictable.

Going over the CBT may only get next year's team to 86 wins, not 90 (considering this year's still might not win 81). And then what? I personally think you either go all-in or rebuild, but "attempt to compete while not mortgaging the future and attempting to fix the entire franchise" appears to be the down-the middle plan again.

[andyb]

I think the questions were framed around what it might take to compete with this core. Not really around what the Phillies are likely to do or whether it would work.

There is definitely a blow it up scenario (not a rebuild but a major sideways restructuring move) that Gelb was thinking about. The question answers were much more tactical though and not anticipating a trade for supposedly safe pieces.

I think DD has a culture changing blow it up trade in him. Not sure I'll like it, but it might be a bit more fun to watch than this year.

[EDmuch]

We really have not "bought" that much expensive talent. Just Harper, Wheeler & Realmuto. That is a lot of dollars, I admit. But it certainly is not just going out and wildly buying talent.

[Philsmania]

By my calculation, the Phillies have $54.5 million coming off the books this offseason.

$6 million with Bradley
$4 million with Anderson
$3 million with Moore
$5 million with Neris
$3 million with Kintzler
$10 million with Herrera
$20 million with McCutchen
$3.5 million with Miller

Maybe you bring Miller and Neris back.

[zambonir]

Cutch, Didi (twice!), the $ commitment Segura already came with.

The money itself wasn't onerous, but in all three cases you were paying for players on the wrong side of the decline curve, and when Cutch turned into a platoon player and Didi into a bench player, there was no $ to address the weakness. Not to mention that the actual production all but Segura gave for the $ could have been gotten more cheaply if they weren't already locked into those deals (or in Didi's case, made a ridiculous blunder giving him a two-year deal, I guess because the manager likes him?)

Now they are right back where they were after 2018 - if they are willing to bust the CBT, that will likely also involve handing out a three-year deal and a five-year deal that may only provide two years of good value, while continuing the tightrope walk.

[andyb]

And trading the one 3 WAR everyday prospect we actually developed (Crawford). Segura has been as advertised for the most part and there were unknowns about Crawford when we made the deal, but a huge part of our problem is not having many young, low cost contributors with all our best young prospects not starting at the moment.

It is a big reason why competing really depends on developing some homegrown starters like Bohm. If we do not do that (and prospects don't look great at the moment for 2022), nothing really has much of a chance of working.

[allentown]

Too many young DH types, who might be able to play 1B, when they have vets who are soon going to need to DH or try to play 1B. The inability of Bohm or Hoskins to field really limits options. Should Herrera be gone? Do we have better? Part of what Dombrowski and his guys need to do is find some talent on the waiver wire/Rule 5/minor league FA/guys coming back from Asia. They need to find their Victorino and Werth. Marchan has a chance. He can be backup catcher next year, recognizing that Realmuto will catch maybe only 100 games, if not next year almost certainly by 2023. The guy who needs to be reclaimed from current minors is Kingery. In the IF, we have a glut at 2B and nobody who can play SS, other than Galvis. We don't really have a 3B.

I remain unconvinced that Nola is fully healthy.

[zambonir]

Segura has been as advertised for the most part

The bad part being how he ceased to be a good SS and we had to sign another one as a FA - and he also ceased to be a good SS. Which only makes the Crawford thing hurt more.

[zambonir]

Too many young DH types, who might be able to play 1B, when they have vets who are soon going to need to DH or try to play 1B. The inability of Bohm or Hoskins to field really limits options. Should Herrera be gone? Do we have better? Part of what Dombrowski and his guys need to do is find some talent on the waiver wire/Rule 5/minor league FA/guys coming back from Asia. They need to find their Victorino and Werth. Marchan has a chance. He can be backup catcher next year, recognizing that Realmuto will catch maybe only 100 games, if not next year almost certainly by 2023. The guy who needs to be reclaimed from current minors is Kingery. In the IF, we have a glut at 2B and nobody who can play SS, other than Galvis. We don't really have a 3B.

I remain unconvinced that Nola is fully healthy.

Herrera and/or Cutch could both be back without the Phillies picking up their options. Maybe that gets renegotiated, but I think they'll also be happy to just let both go and see if they come back for less later. Market won't be hot for either of them.

Gelb thinks Marchan still needs to play, and/or will be traded if he continues to do well. They'll get a veteran back-up, if it's not Knapp. There's no way Realmuto only catches 100 games, unless he's hurt.

Is it good or bad if Nola's hurt? Good, there's an explanation. Bad, if injury getting worse/surgery is ahead of him.

The Werths and Victorino are pretty rare. I might settle for a Geoff Jenkins or Pedro Feliz.

[EDmuch]

Of the dregs we now have playing in the minors, I would think Kingery is the one who could be rescued. He did have one solid MLB season where he hit 20 home runs. So he can play in MLB. If whatever bent his mind insdie out can be corrected, there is still a solid athlete there waiting to be rehabbed.

By contrast, someone like Moniak is almost a lost cause. When he was drafted ti was all based upon projection of what a smallish 18 year old could develop into. The answer now is "not much". Really not sure there is much to develop with him. He seems like a sweetener in a larger trade.

[julio]

If they do not exceed the CBT, there is really no good reason to root for the 2022 team.

Some of us root for the Phillies because they're the Phillies...some of us have been doing so since...oh, before Bowa and Schmidt debuted. To a first-order approximation, if somebody chooses to root for the Phillies, or to not root for the Phillies, because of what their payroll is (or because of smart, or dumb, personnel moves)... that somebody is not a Phillies Phan.

Just my opinion.

[andyb]

Even if he has had an OK year I assume they just want a clean break with Herrera. Agree that you just can't plug in Marchan into a 40-game backup catcher role. Better to have him go to AAA and hit (if he clears a 600 OPS that will be good enough) and then deal the other backup. It won't be that expensive but they just need to budget $3-$5 million for a backup catcher better than Knapp.

[zambonir]

Most of us are capable of rooting for them and being miserable about them at the same time. Whether it's ownership, results on the field, or anti-vax players. I don't think Ed's comment was meant to be taken literally. If it was, he'd have picked another team years ago.

I agree there is more reason to hope on Kingery than Haseley or Moniak. OTOH that was also true of Dom Brown, Asche, Franco, Altherr. And with his injury he might not be truly ready until a few months into the season - gonna be almost impossible for him to hit his way into a 40-man spot right away. The labor dispute might be his friend there, though that could also slow his recovery.

[flyers19rw]

The elephant in the room, which Gelb brought up in his interview today, is a work stoppage affecting the ‘22 season. Too many clubs lost money over the last two seasons for it not to happen. Owners are going to want to make significant changes to the game in attempts to turn around the game in order to attract the fans. Four hour games featuring three outcome baseball isn’t cutting it. These changes will eventually be accepted by the PA but it will cost part of a season to get there. Until these changes get worked out, it’s doubtful that clubs will adjust their rosters for a future season.

[allentown]

There's no way Realmuto only catches 100 games, unless he's hurt.

It's a way of trying to prevent him from getting hurt or run down over the course of the long baseball season. He'll also play some 1B under my scenario. I certainly think by the 2023 season that this will be a prudent management of his physical condition. He may not even play 100 games at catcher in 2022, since it is unlikely to be a full 162-game season.

To AndyB: If a full 162 game season next year, then Marchan could catch 60 games and pick up other AB as a PH. It's better than spending $millions on a backup catcher. It's time to launch his MLB career. He can get other games in after the season in Australian or other winter ball (I'd rather not risk south of the border leagues).

[zambonir]

Oh, I agree they have to manage his workload and obviously the DH will help that too. I guess I'm just not sure what the number will actually be, which is less about how often he catches as how often he plays, period.

He made 133 starts in 2019, all at catcher. Would have been 138-139 if they'd been contending, he was shut down with 8 to go.

In 2020 he made 36 starts at catcher, 9 at DH. So yeah, with that kind of usage that would project out to 96-97 starts at catcher and 24 at DH. And if they want him to play even more than that those extra starts should probably be at DH.

I guess I just don't believe this manager or front office will be that proactive, especially if it's not what JT wants (and it probably isn't).

I don't really believe Marchan is ready, these nice offensive flickers aside I don't believe he'd help the team win any more than Knapp has this year, and if it doesn't help the team win and doesn't help his development there is no upside. That's assuming he's even on the Phillies by December - but if he is they probably want him to be a nice hot prospect in AAA come July, not a lightly used back-up catcher hitting .208 in MLB.

But I also don't think they'll spend $2-3 million on a catcher. You can move on from Knapp and get a defense-first veteran back-up.

The labor dispute hangs over everything of course. If it's as long as I think it's' going to be Realmuto can catch 75 games because he'll only be playing in 80.

[andyb]

If a full 162 game season next year, then Marchan could catch 60 games and pick up other AB as a PH. It's better than spending $millions on a backup catcher

Not if Marchan puts up a .450 OPS. There needs to be some minimum level of offense to go with the defense. Backup catchers are not too hard to find. Previously they did not want to come to Philly if JT was going to play 140 games.

[allentown]

But Marchan has an OPS well above .600 in Philly this season and it is Knapp who is below .450. If they want a backup who is likely to be significantly better than Knapp (they could always go cheap and hope to get lucky) it is going to cost multiple $millions, because vet catchers who are any good aren't cheap. Marchan is 23 next year and its his 7th season in pro ball. That's enough training to be our backup catcher.

[andyb]

But Marchan has an OPS well above .600 in Philly this season and it is Knapp who is below .450.

You are too smart to make arguments like this based on small sample size (and no I am not advocating for Knapp). Marchan has a .632 OPS in 56 plate appearances in the majors this year. But a .488 OPS in a much larger sample of 232 minor league plate appearances. His career minor league OPS is .644 in over 1000 plate appearances. The majors are tougher than the minors, and while Marchan will likely improve, projecting a 600 OPS is probably what one gets for now and the most important thing is he is not doing that now in AAA.

Knapp was actually a good hitter in the minors. 768 OPS career. Even a respectable .642 OPS in the majors. He was always an offensive catcher who was below average defensively (though everyone raves about his preparation even if it is hard to quantify that). His problem is he got old quickly. Catchers sometimes do like Cameron Rupp. His offense has fallen off a cliff as his physical skills start to deteriorate.

Free agent catchers can be found for a modest amount. Zunino signed for $3 million last year. Tyler Flowers got $1.5 million. So did Curt Casali (friend of our pitching coach), Austine Romine, Alex Avila, and Kurt Suzuki (all $1.5). They all did not work out, but enough did and all were probably better than Knapp.

A team with a $200 million payroll that won't spend $2 million on a backup catcher is embarrassing. If we dealt JT we'd need someone better (likely in a trade), but that does not factor into getting a better backup catcher. One that will cost us about what we gave Matt Joyce this year.

[Austinfan]

Marchan has gotten stronger the last couple years and he's a solid defensive catcher.
He's probably as good a hitter as most FA backup catchers, with a lot more upside.
Playing 60 games and some PH/late inning appearances would get him to 250-300 PA, enough to continue to develop.

I think I remember a "no hit" LA catcher gradually improving in the past.