Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

[allentown]

A team that spends $3 million on a backup catcher, because it doesn't trust its own young players is embarrassing. We can't build team that is good enough to advance in the playoffs with only FAs, even with a $200 million budget. Saving $2 million on a backup catcher is money which can be part of $ needed to fill a real hole. Yes, this is small sample size. It is at least a positive small sample size. The only way it becomes a larger sample size is by playing him. BTw, you objected to several $millions for a backup catcher and then your first counter is Zunino for $3 million, which is 'several millions'. If we are to afford expensive FAs like Harper, Wheeler, and JT, then we need cheap rookies on the MLB roster to balance the cost.

[andyb]

I think I remember a "no hit" LA catcher gradually improving in the past.

Talking about Carlos Ruiz? 822 OPS in Reading. 812 then 894 in two subsequent years at Scranton Wilkes-Barre. Are you seriously trying to say that a catcher with a sub-500 OPS in AAA now and a career .644 minor league OPS is in the same league as Carlos Ruiz.

A catcher can improve and still not be ready or good enough. Maybe he can be Jeff Mathis and have a career like that. But Mathis has a career WAR of +0.3 and a career minor league OPS of .782 so Marchan is not even Jeff Mathis yet. A little evidence in your argument would be useful.

[julio]

Talking about Carlos Ruiz? 822 OPS in Reading. 812 then 894 in two subsequent years at Scranton Wilkes-Barre.

Ruiz posted an .822 OPS in Reading - at age 25.
.812 OPS in S/W-B, at age 26.
.894 OPS in S/W-B, at age 27.

Rafael Marchan is 22 years old.

In 2001, at age 22, Chooch put up a .680 OPS in Lakewood, low-A ball.
In 2019, at age 20, Marchan posted a .686 OPS in Lakewood.

In 2002, at age 23, Chooch posted a .592 OPS in Clearwater.
In 2019. at age 20, Marchan posted a .573 OPS in Clearwater (limited time).

Chooch reached AAA at age 26, reached the NL at age 27. Marchan played at both these levels at age 22. Yes, he struggled at AAA - but he was four years younger than Ruiz at the same level, and five years younger than Ruiz was when he debuted for the Phils.

I could agree that it's premature to compare Marchan to Ruiz - but not that there's anything in Marchan's minor league stats to date that suggests he's somehow "behind" Ruiz - you well know how important the significant difference in age at each level is. We don't know that Marchan will continue to develop - but given that he's been ahead of Chooch (performing at a similar OPS while 2-3 years younger) at several levels, it appears that his ceiling is likely higher than Ruiz. If Marchan continues to develop the way we might expect from a 22-year-old who has already reached the majors, you may be correct to suggest that Marchan is not 'in the same league as Carlos Ruiz."

[andyb]

But we are talking about playing Marchan TODAY. When he is 22. Or next year when he is 23. This is not about whether he might be better. We don't know that. But we also can see from his minor league record this year that he is not ready.

Typically a minor league player puts up a good season in the high minors before getting a major league job. Your post is simply answering the wrong, irrelevant question of whether Marchan looks like a better prospect than when they were both 22. He probably does marginally (the lack of power is largely a tools based conclusion, not development).

This was all about what the Phillies should do at backup catcher next year paired with the argument that the backup catcher needs to play more (and that Knapp is terrible which even Biden and Trump supporters can agree on). Are you seriously suggesting there is evidence that Marchan is ready now?

[allentown]

But we are talking about playing Marchan TODAY. When he is 22

No, I am talking about giving him the backup catcher role next year at age 23, rather than spending $multi-million on an aging vet. I am further proposing about 60 games for him in Philly. That's the post you responded to.

On the other hand, I don't see why he shouldn't get a handful of starts the rest of this season -- Knapp has been awful and no need to wear down Realmuto in a year he has been hurt, when the Phillies season is over, all but mathematically, in terms of elimination.

I am tired of the Phillies distrustful and 'need to pay their dues and defer to vets' approach to young players. Part of the reason so many of our young players have failed. Kingery seems in large part a long-Covid casualty, but there was no reason they couldn't have just let him be comfortable playing 2B. Knapp is the established vet, but he's also played himself out of the job by any reasonable standard.

The other question is whether more time in the minors will benefit Marchan. With our minors a dispiriting muck of losing at all levels above FSL coupled with conflicting instruction, the answer likely is 'no'.

[andyb]

What has Marchan does this year at age 22 to make anyone think he is ready next year? This is not about trust of young players or paying dues. It is about whether young players are good enough. Knapp and Kingery actually had good years in the upper minors. The fact that our minor league talent is mediocre is no argument to just promote somebody.

Frankly there is a better argument that Logan O'Hoppe is more ready for the majors now than Marchan.

[zambonir]

Yeah, it seems to me the Ruiz comparison is the argument for not rushing Marchan to the majors next season. The best thing for his development is still at least another half-season in AAA, as much for the everyday action as to show he can master that level. In MLB you get the worst-case of both worlds - he doesn't play enough, and he's as in over his head as Haseley ultimately was, and then gets completely off-track.

I still also think it's moot because he's getting traded. He's the only prospect they have with value where they also have sufficient depth - so long as they fill the major league hole in another way.

On the other hand, I don't see why he shouldn't get a handful of starts the rest of this season -- Knapp has been awful and no need to wear down Realmuto in a year he has been hurt, when the Phillies season is over, all but mathematically, in terms of elimination.

They'd either have to IL JT or DFA Knapp. I don't think they are willing to do the latter, or prepared to do the former quite yet. If they did at least he'd get to play everyday. But since there's still three weeks of AAA left that's not nothing either, particularly given the lost 2020.

The other question is whether more time in the minors will benefit Marchan. With our minors a dispiriting muck of losing at all levels above FSL coupled with conflicting instruction, the answer likely is 'no'.

You could say the same thing about the majors!

[mdougherty12]

But we are talking about playing Marchan TODAY. When he is 22

No, I am talking about giving him the backup catcher role next year at age 23, rather than spending $multi-million on an aging vet. I am further proposing about 60 games for him in Philly. That's the post you responded to.

Backup catchers don't get $multi-million in free agency these days, they're lucky to get guaranteed deals at all. Mike Zunino only got 1 year/$3 million, plus a team option from Tampa Bay after starting every game in the 2020 World Series (and after the Rays declined the $4.5 million option they already had).

I tend to think that Marchan would be better served by getting starter's playing time at AAA, and hopefully developing his offense further, than backing up Realmuto in the big leagues. Even with his big league time, Marchan still is just under 300 PA above A ball in his career.

[zambonir]

I think Atown is defining "3" as "multi."

Knapp makes $1.2 million and would probably get what, $2 million next season? They'd probably be happy to to snag a vet at $1.5 million, which would then mean saving money. And if they don't wind up trading Marchan in the off-season he's still an option in July if the veteran stinks.

The real question is will they non-tender Knapp? He could always be released during spring training but teams never seem to do that. With the labor dispute it might be better to just keep his rights. But I think andy is probably right, he'll be 30 years old next season, and the guy who played (extremely!) well in 2020 and decently in the second half of 2019 may simply not exist anymore.

[julio]

On the other hand, I don't see why he shouldn't get a handful of starts the rest of this season -- Knapp has been awful and no need to wear down Realmuto in a year he has been hurt, when the Phillies season is over, all but mathematically, in terms of elimination.

They'd either have to IL JT or DFA Knapp. I don't think they are willing to do the latter, or prepared to do the former quite yet. If they did at least he'd get to play everyday. But since there's still three weeks of AAA left that's not nothing either, particularly given the lost 2020.

If they plan to non-tender Knapp in November, there's no reason not to DFA him today (e.g. let's not kid ourselves about reaching the post-season with Knapp vs. Marchan - or at all). If they do not non-tender Knapp in November, then there's no point in discussing whether Marchan could be the backup in 2022 - because if they go to arbitation with Knapp, Knapp will be the 2022 backup.

So, give Marchan another 15 games - another 50 plate appearances or so - and see if his small sample performance holds up. Only then, when you have a bit more data, think about whether he needs AAA seasoning in 2022, or whether it's worth saving a couple of $million by not signing a veteran, mediocre backup catcher.

[julio]

We could alternatively posit that what the Phillies do in the next couple of days with Marchan will indicate what they intend to do with him in April 2022 (assuming no work stoppage!); e.g., if they don't bring him back up and play him, he's ticketed for AAA, period. In that case, we'll have to wait until November to see whether they cut bait on Knapp.

My guess, though is that Knapp's days as a Phillie are numbered. He's a product of a former front office, he's not good defensively, and his offense has gone away. A .431 OPS? Why would Dombrowski even consider keeping him around? They can probably get that much offense from Logan Moore (who is back with the Phils in AAA) - and Moore is solid defensively.

And no, I'm not advocating for Logan Moore as the 2022 backup catcher!

[andyb]

Only then, when you have a bit more data, think about whether he needs AAA seasoning in 2022, or whether it's worth saving a couple of $million by not signing a veteran, mediocre backup catcher.

This ignores the AAA data compiled this year as if it does not count. Hey, I have no problem letting Marchan play now. It is almost to the point where it is not worth trotting JT out any more so we could put him on the IL to bring back Marchan.

As of now he is much closer to being the backup QB that everyone loves because they dislike the incumbent in the job. But all evidence points to him putting up a .500 OPS in the majors next year. Why push the kid into that? He is a prospect, but not really a great prospect. And if he is actually considered a prospect, why aren't we developing him? It was probably a mistake to not have a veteran catcher around this year to get the random callups that robbed Marchan of some playing time.

[bkox]

For those tht feel Marchan should spend next year in AAA... How does Logan O'Hoppe figure in all this? Hes had a very solid season. I assume he starts next season at Reading. But if he has the same level of production as this season. he should be going to AAA by June I assume

[julio]

This ignores the AAA data compiled this year as if it does not count.

No it doesn't; I'm just saying get as much data as you can. An evaluation would take into account both his AAA performance and his NL performance. More data is better.

You seem to be arguing that the AAA data trumps the NL data. I would argue that you look at both - and the more NL data they can get, the better.

And if he is actually considered a prospect, why aren't we developing him? It was probably a mistake to not have a veteran catcher around this year to get the random callups that robbed Marchan of some playing time.

This is completely fair.

[zambonir]

My guess, though is that Knapp's days as a Phillie are numbered. He's a product of a former front office, he's not good defensively, and his offense has gone away. A .431 OPS? Why would Dombrowski even consider keeping him around?

On that note, why is he even the starting catcher tonight? (And last night too.)

Total hindsight but it seems laughable we were expecting this team to do anything with Knapp at catcher, Torreyes/Galvis at 3B (third base!) and either of those guys or Didi at SS.

[andyb]

JT is hurt and they won't make an IL move for him or bring up a 3rd catcher. The Phillies being stubborn around day to day injuries is a persistent organizational problem.

[zambonir]

It was a rhetorical question, though I think julio's suggestion that we will learn something about the Phillies plans for Marchan in the next few days is incorrect. They made their decision when they didn't decide to carry three catchers or send Knapp straight from the COVID-IL to DFA (or perhaps they could have even buried him on the IL for longer).

I'm sure our manager, the veteran-loving former catcher, regardless of all the nice things he's said about Marchan, wanted Knapp back. If he wanted Marchan presumably he could make it happen.

[mdougherty12]

I think Atown is defining "3" as "multi."

Probably, but the point is that Zunino got that to be a starting catcher on a playoff team.

[zambonir]

Right, got kind of lost in all the posts. I wonder if the Rays will pick up Zunino's option. It has risen from $4 million to $7 million due to his high # of games played.

[allentown]

The other question is whether more time in the minors will benefit Marchan. With our minors a dispiriting muck of losing at all levels above FSL coupled with conflicting instruction, the answer likely is 'no'.

You could say the same thing about the majors!

It isn't a good winning situation, but the MLB team is at least at .500.