Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

[mdougherty12]

Right, got kind of lost in all the posts. I wonder if the Rays will pick up Zunino's option. It has risen from $4 million to $7 million due to his high # of games played.

It doesn't seem like a Rays move to pick up Zunino's option, and Francisco Mejia has played pretty well with them this year, too.

[zambonir]

It isn't a good winning situation, but the MLB team is at least at .500.

As far as Marchan's development goes, I don't think it really matters how many games the Iron Pigs or the Phillies win over the next three weeks. He surely gets more instruction and playing time in AAA.

At this point you certainly could make the argument that he is more able to help the major leage team than Knapp, even if it's not sustainable. But that was also true a week ago and the Phillies didn't care.

[flyers19rw]

Dusty Wathan is known for coaching up catchers. Girardi could also be helpful in this area. Under these circumstances, I doubt that Marchan would have better tutors in the minors. Being in the show and working with the Phillies major league instructors would trump what ever advantages Hoppe.

[zambonir]

Yes, they've really done a great job with Knapp! Joe Dillon as well! Our infield defense instructors really seem to be top-notch as well.

Seriously, I hope they are decent coaches, but they are not instructional coaches. You get maybe an extra 20 minutes of attention a day if you are in the majors. In the minors there is more time, plus more playing time.

If the Phillies were going to call Marchan up and give him 12 starts over the next three weeks I'm all for it, but there's little indication they are willing to do that.

[andyb]

As to the O'Hoppe question, I'd probably consider him our top catching prospect and he should play at whatever level next year (AA or AAA) that he is deemed ready for and get 60% of the catching starts there. I'd consider him for the Arizona League this year. That does not mean Marchan should be ignored either, but he probably profiles as a backup and O'Hoppe has more of a chance to start. Marchan should probably play winter ball too in Venezuela if they find a good situation there for him.

[BostonRoss]

So it’s settled: We sign Zunino!

[zambonir]

Maybe we can trade Kingery for Austin Nola.

[EDmuch]

Man, if it is going to be this tough naming a back up catcher, filing out the rest of next year's roster sound like a herculean task.

[julio]

Since it has come up in other threads, I think this might be the thread for discussing possible winter additions to the 40-man roster. These decisions will be driven by (among other things) Rule 5 eligibility, and possibility also eligibility for minor-league free agency.

There are a bunch of guys who technically will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft - at some point, I (or somebody else) can post a list... but the issue, of course, is which of these guys would actually be at risk of being drafted, and of those, which of them do we actually care about?

I'm uncertain, actually, about how to evaluate minor-league free agency. The standard contract expires after seven seasons (e.g., "six-year" minor league free agents actually have to have played for seven seasons - go figure). But what I don't know is whether the cancelled 2020 seasons "count" as one of those seven seasons, or whether clubs get an extra year of control because there were no "championship seasons" in the minors in 2020 for these guys to play in.

The list of eligibles for minor-league free agency will consist mostly of older guys in the upper minors, who were signed by the Phillies as either insurance, or as filler for those rosters. Assuming that the "lost" 2020 counts, there are a few of our own draftees/amateur signees, though, who become eligible for free agency after the World Series, if they're not added to the 40-man roster. A list (may not be complete):

Daniel Brito
Edgar Cabral
Arquimedes Gamboa
Nick Fanti
Mauricio Llovera
Cornelius Randolph

Scott Kingery is also in this category (he's played in seven seasons), but his contract is guaranteed, so he may not be eligible (and the Phils may be obliged to add him to the 40-man roster because of that contract?).

If the "lost" 2020 seasons don't count, then the only player on the above list who would still be eligible for minor league free agency is Llovera - he played (in the majors) in 2020.

[zambonir]

I don't see how they'd be any more obliged to put Kingery back on the 40 than they were Herrera. He cleared waivers already. He could try to be a free agent I guess, but then he'd lose the money (I think that was also true of Herrera).

[andyb]

Passan on the free agent tiers:

Passan's early MLB free-agency tiers: Which stars are going to get paid this...

[julio]

Here's a (possibly not comprehensive) list of Phillies players who will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not added to the 40-man roster. This does not include players who will become minor league free agents after the World Series. (Note that Scott Kingery has the years to qualify for minor-league fa, but is under guaranteed contract...but should still be Rule 5-eligible if not added back to the 40-man.)

I didn't bother listing players who are rostered below High-A.

Player	Pos	Level
Eastman, Colton	RHP	AAA
Evanko, Ethan	LHP	AAA
Hernandez, Jakob	LHP	AAA
Ogle, Braeden	LHP	AAA
Perkins, Jack	RHP	AAA
Singer, Jeff	LHP	AAA
Hall, Darick	1B	AAA
Kingery, Scott	2B	AAA
Guthrie, Dalton	3B	AAA
Chatham, C.J.	SS	AAA
Bettencourt, Trevor	RHP	AA
Brown, Andrew	RHP	AA
Carr, Tyler	RHP	AA
Hennigan, Jonathan	LHP	AA
Lehman, Taylor	LHP	AA
McArthur, James	RHP	AA
Parkinson, David	LHP	AA
Ross, Austin	RHP	AA
Warren, Zach	LHP	AA
Conley, Jack	C	AA
Fitch, Colby	C	AA
Kroon, Matt	3B	AA
Miller, Luke	3B	AA
Stokes, Madison	SS	AA
Ortiz, Jhailyn	OF	AA
Stephen, Josh	OF	AA
De La Cruz, Jonas	RHP	A+
Francisco, Carlos	RHP	A+
Garcia, Julian	RHP	A+
Killgore, Keylan	LHP	A+
Lindow, Ethan	LHP	A+
McKay, Tyler	RHP	A+
Mezquita, Jhordany	LHP	A+
Potter, Mark	RHP	A+
Silva, Manuel	LHP	A+
Sutera, Tom	RHP	A+
Vargas, Victor	RHP	A+
Yanez, Gabriel	RHP	A+
Matera, Nick	C	A+
Stewart, D.J.	3B	A+
Garcia, Luis	SS	A+
Guzman, Jonathan	SS	A+
Torres, Nicolas	SS	A+
Tortolero, Jose	SS	A+
De La Cruz, Carlos	OF	A+
Pelletier, Ben	OF	A+

[LoneStarPhan]

I had not thought about Kingery being rule 5 draft eligible, but any club taking him would assume a $15 million obligation. That probably keeps him safe on the Phillies' AAA reserve list.

[Austinfan]

I think most likely to be protected:

McArthur, James RHP
Ortiz, Jhailyn RF
Garcia, Luis SS
Torres, Nicolas SS
Eastman, Colton RHP
Ogle, Braeden LHP
Lindow, Ethan LHP

[Taudawg]

Leave Kingery unprotected.

I would 100% protect Jhailyn Ortiz and Luis Garcia. I could see them protect Eastman, Ogle and Lindow as well and there should be plenty of 40 man slots available.

[LoneStarPhan]

My list of wants for putting together the 2022 team.

1. A shortstop. Need one who is an outstanding fielder and also a good hitter.
2. Left fielder. Very good hitter with power who is at least average in the field.
3. Starting pitcher. Veteran starter who projects to be a good #4.
4. Experienced relief pitcher. Should have closer experience.
5. Experienced relief pitcher.
6. Experienced bench player (Miller type)
7. Back up catcher. Must be outstanding defensively and able to hit .220 or better with at least a little power.

Assumptions:
Rotation built around Wheeler, Nola, Suarez, Eflin and Gibson, but I would like to add that sixth starter. It is a long season and everybody seems to break down.
Bullpen will return many of the pitchers who pitched this season and were not free agents.
Infield returns Segura, Gregorius and Bohm who man second and third around the added top level shortstop. Hoskins returns at firstbase.
Outfield anchored by Harper and a new solid leftfielder. While it would be great to add a solid centerfielder, I don't think it happens if they can add the seven I list above. Center would have to be manned by one or more of the under control outfielders: Herrera, Williams, Moniek, Jankowski, Vierling, Quinn, Haseley, et. al.
DH and bench: Didi, Maton, the outfielders who don't win the centerfield job, Kingery, FA signing such as Torreyes.

We know they do not have the money/cap space to sign top FA fills for the seven needs I listed above. I would concentrate on getting the best shortstop possible and then seek trades and free agents who are not commanding top dollar, but who they can see potential value over their cost. There are likely to be players who will end up signing bargain deals and go on to have very good seasons.

The off season will be full of uncertainty with a new basic agreement not yet signed. Will the NL have a DH? How will the FA market progress? Will teams be making deals or waiting to see how things change? Will the competitive balance cap change significantly with the new agreement? Makes for uncertainty and potentially a slow off season.

Off season 40 man roster space will be the first management task for DD and the GM. I am pretty sure Kingery does not end up protected. Part of setting the roster will also include the decision on each of the arbitration eligible players. Who gets nontendered? Of course, I guess that whole system is subject to change in the next basic agreement and the old agreement expires December 1st. More uncertainty.

[zambonir]

I could still see them trading for a CF and signing a SS. You've also got guys like Bryant and Chris Taylor who can play all over the place. I'm also not sure any one of those seven names you mentioned are adequate in CF, especially with the bats they've shown thus far.

Also Herrera is no more under control than Cutch is, they both have options the Phillies would have to pick up, and I doubt they will. Doesn't mean one or even both of them couldn't come back, at lower, even platoon, prices. But my guess is the Phillies will be happy to see Odubel go, and while Cutch is beloved, even as a platoon OF he's risky at this point.

I still think they trade one position player: Hoskins, Segura, Didi. Even Bohm can't be ruled out. Obviously Didi doesn't get you much, while Bohm probably gets you the most. But you wouldn't exactly be selling high either, and they can't really afford not to him in the future mix. Segura to me is still the easy one. Sign a cheap 2B or move Didi there and hope Stott takes over by July.

Gotta think Quinn is a non-tender, and Jankowski too (if he is even controlled). Hopefully they aren't crazy enough to tender Torreyes, just bring him back again on a minor league deal if they must (but that's debatable).

[allentown]

A lot of disappointments on this list. If Ortiz really is to be considered a 1B, rather than a LF, that gives him a much narrower window. I'd still protect him this winter. Really, one wonders how many of these guys couldn't be replaced by Rule 5 picks of our own or minor league FA. There are some RP candidates here, but not sure we'd lose any in draft. Kroon's improvement is interesting, but not sure we'd lose him either. The tall pitchers always intrigue me, but doubt any of them would be taken. I thought we'd be protecting Lindow this year, but a big step backward.

[LoneStarPhan]

All the arbitration eligible players and those who have a team option are under team control if they want to keep them at the cost required. Frankly, it would not at all surprise me if the Phillies put getting a new centerfielder as a top off season priority. I also expect that many of the arbitration eligible players are non-tendered. I also think it is very likely that the Phillies exercise the buyout on Herrera.

McCutchen would be a good candidate to bring back on a new contract. His option is too high but he may well welcome a return on a contract in line with his realistic market value.

They can also try to sign some of the arbitration players to contracts prior to the deadline for tendering a contract and starting the arbitration process.

Of course, how will arbitration change this year with the basic agreement ending?

[zambonir]

As usual, a rough read.

'I just want to be better': Phillies know they need a developmental overhaul for...

Here is a decent starting point: The Phillies ranked second in the National League in OPS from their No. 3-6 hitters. They ranked 13th in OPS from their 1-2 hitters and 11th from the 7-9 spots (pitchers not included). There were too many holes in the lineup; maybe they didn’t make in-game adjustments fast enough and that is on the hitting coach, but the roster just wasn’t constructed well.....

“We can’t just keep going out and buying and buying and buying,” Harper said. “We need homegrown talent. When you look at teams that have homegrown talent, those are the teams that have success. I think as a whole, we need our minor leagues to be better. We need guys to come up from the minor leagues and have success and be successful. Not have to go up and down.”

So the Phillies begin the long winter Monday with questions in center field and left field and on the left side of the infield. They are attempting to reshape the philosophies that guide a maligned farm system, and it’s possible the next hitting coach is someone who attempts to install a coherent program that extends from the majors to the lowest levels of the minors. Often, Dillon was handed young players and asking them to do things they weren’t told to do in the minors. Those players were sent back to the minors where they received another set of directives. It will require a deep dive to solve questions about why the Phillies haven’t had success in finishing prospects at the big-league level, but there are roots in a disconnect between what was taught below and preached in the majors.