Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

[zambonir]

Semantics, but the Phillies only have five days to keep their players with options, whereas they have a month-plus to make decisions on players they truly control. If they did decide to take another run at Cutch or Odubel, they will certainly have enjoyed a nice buyout already!

[julio]

...and there should be plenty of 40 man slots available.

There are 45 players currently on the 40-man roster or the 60-day Injured List. Seven of them will become free agents the day after the World Series ends.

• Bedrosian, Cam
• Bradley, Archie
• Kennedy, Ian
• Moore, Matt
• Neris, Hector
• Galvis, Freddy
• Miller, Brad

At that point, there will be 38 names on the 40-man roster. Eight of these players are arbitration-eligible. Some of these guys may be non-tendered, and become free agents. The tender deadline is December 2nd.

• Eflin, Zach
• Alvarado, Jose
• Dominguez, Seranthony
• Knapp, Andrew
• Hoskins, Rhys
• Torreyes, Ronald
• Jankowski, Travis
• Quinn, Roman

Then there are two players with club options that may be bought out (deadline is five days after the end of the World Series):

• Herrera, Odubel (if bought out, becomes arbitration-eligible)
• McCutchen, Andrew (if bought out, becomes free agent)

That leaves 28 players. Seven are on guaranteed multi-year contracts, and aren't going anywhere, barring a significant trade:

• Gibson, Kyle
• Nola, Aaron
• Wheeler, Zack
• Realmuto, J.T.
• Gregorius, Didi
• Segura, Jean
• Harper, Bryce

Lastly, there are 21 guys who don't have enough service time to qualify for arbitration (some of whom could be outrighted to AAA prior to the November 19th winter roster deadline):

• Crouse, Hans
• Falter, Bailey
• Jones, Damon
• Medina, Adonis
• Morales, Francisco
• Sanchez, Cristopher
• Suárez, Ranger
• Brogdon, Connor
• Coonrod, Sam
• Dohy, Kyle
• Hammer, J.D.
• Romero, JoJo
• Rosso, Ramon
• Marchan, Rafael
• Bohm, Alec
• Maton, Nick
• Vierling, Matt
• Williams, Luke
• Haseley, Adam
• Moniak, Mickey
• Muzziotti, Simon

The possibilities are...pretty much endless.

[julio]

If Ortiz really is to be considered a 1B, rather than a LF, that gives him a much narrower window

Ortiz has been playing in the outfield in AA. He was listed as a 1B when signed, which is the list I pulled his name from. I should fix that...

I have fixed that. Good catch, a-town!

[mdougherty12]

Looking at Jhailyn Ortiz’s page on Baseball Reference, he’s played every OF spot (mostly RF), plus 5 games at DH, but he has yet to play an inning at 1B in his pro career.

[Austinfan]

This has been obvious for years, good thing Domo is taking steps to rectify the problem.
The lack of an organizational philosophy which is taught at every level is failure from the top.

[fish]

I propose a new strategy for the Phillies- try hiring someone who was successful at the job they are hiring for in a system they are trying to emulate. Hiring someone who is a “good interview “ that will need to go through growing pains is not something they can keep waiting around for.

[xogfog]

Dombrowski is the right guy to take a team that is close into contention, but with owners not willing to spend above the luxury tax, he is a bit hamstrung at least in the short term, but if you want someone to rebuild a farm system from top to bottom and change the baseball culture, I'd rather have Epstein or Beane.

[andyb]

DD does at least realize that we need to be better regardless within the amount of money we spend. So if we have a payroll of $200 million a year and not $250 million, we need to be more efficient (i.e. develop more young talent) within that budget limit.

I have no clue as to whether he is the right person to execute that philosophy of course. His most successful teams have traded prospects for short term gain and that is not what we need now. We need better prospects to be in the position to trade them later.

[phillychuck]

Looking at Jhailyn Ortiz’s page on Baseball Reference, he’s played every OF spot (mostly RF), plus 5 games at DH, but he has yet to play an inning at 1B in his pro career.

Ortiz, despite being a big guy, is athletic and an above average corner OF. When he gets older his body size may restrict him to LF/1B, but for now, and for the Phils' purposes, he is 100% OF, and a pretty good one at that!

On the Phils as a whole, if they can keep the five starting pitchers healthy, I'm pretty optimistic that they can contend. I'm most worried about Nola, with Eflin close behind in terms of staying healthy and successful. I'm betting nola had a physical problem this year.

[Taudawg]

Dombrowski made some pretty savvy deals while in Detroit and Boston without giving up high quality prospects. He also showed he is not afraid to deal established players. He may need to make some deals that appear on the surface to be taking a step back, such as dealing Hoskins or Nola.

Dave Dombrowski's best trades and signings at his last 2 stops

[EDmuch]

I think a platoon of Cutch plus Miller would get us a very sold level of performance from LF. Choose between Galvis or Torreyes for Utility infielder but not both. Then focus on CF & left side of infield. There are quite a few high end SS available but they will be pricey. I like Bryant as a UFA because of his versatility at Of & 3b. I agree we may need to sign another 4/5 starter for depth. Another Gibson type pitcher.

But the biggest obstacle is ownership continuing to refuse to go over the Cap. Of course, long range the answer is to “develop” prospects but that is kind of irrelevant to 2022. For this year they are facing at least 2 big ticker items: a high end SS or center fielder & a real closer. To address those issues they will have to spend money over the current Cap.

[Austinfan]

If you have to go over the cap, it's an admission of failure, that is, you had to buy enough talent to be competitive using more money than most teams.

Miller/Cutch would be a disaster defensively, as it was this season, that only works for the DH, in which case you put Hopkins there, let JT play 40 games at 1B and the rest by Bohm or someone you sign.

Phillies need LF, CF, 3B, SS, 1B (who can field adequately), at least 1 SP, a closer, and maybe some RP depth.
Time to start working miracles!

[bkox]

If you have to go over the cap, it's an admission of failure

are you saying the Dodgers are a failure?

Phillies need LF, CF, 3B, SS, 1B (who can field adequately), at least 1 SP, a closer, and maybe some RP depth.
Time to start working miracles!

So are you giving up on Bohm and Hoskins? I know we will probably have a DH next year but IMO that should be a rotation of regulars like Realmuto, Harper, Hoskins and Segura to get them a little break but still keep their bats in the lineup.

[bigegypt0417]

If you have to go over the cap, it's an admission of failure, that is, you had to buy enough talent to be competitive using more money than most teams.

I don't know...I wouldn't consider the Dodger a "failure" since they have cultivated their own PREMIUM talent and augmented it with buying power...which seems like the formula you may want to emulate if possible...and based on revenue, the phillies should be able to do the same.

[Austinfan]

The Dodgers go over the cap strategically (you can only go over on a limited basis b/c the penalties escalate), to make a WS run, not to amass enough talent to have a shot at the playoffs.

You need to build a 90-95 win team, then you choose to go over the cap if needed, but not as a means of team building.

[bigegypt0417]

If you have to go over the cap, it's an admission of failure, that is, you had to buy enough talent to be competitive using more money than most teams.

Moving the goalposts aside...it's not a "failure" to go over the cap.

It's part of a strategy to augment their own talent.

[EDmuch]

Well, AF, WE ARE A FAILURE at developing talent. Better to admit it and and plan based upon reality than engage in your imaginary world where we suddenly "develop" all kinds of talent in the next six months. For the 2025 season we can hope to have all kinds of young home grown "talent". But for 2022, it is best to admit what we are, a franchise almost completely devoid of young talent, and plan from there using the asset we have: MONEY. The stupid thing to do is waste the investment in Harper, Wheeler and Realmuto by continuing to surround them with mediocrity.

As for LF, well yeah, they could be better defensively. But we could always use Jankowski or Vierling at defensive replacements in the 7th inning (If we could assume a BP that can protect a lead). But we can't just ignore the 30+ home runs a year plus RBI's we can get from such a platoon. If we don't plug LF with Cutch and Miller, that leaves another big hole to be plugged by big money. And no, I do not think we can afford to throw away that power in favor of a journeyman left fielder who hits 12 home runs a year.

[julio]

It doesn't make sense to me to discuss how to build next year's roster, with pieces that probably won't be here. Brad Miller, Freddy Galvis are free agents, and may just sign somewhere else. Ronald Torreyes and Travis Jankowski are eligible for arbitration . Both of these guys were signed this year to minor-league contracts; either or both could well be non-tendered, rather than offered arbitration. (They probably should be non-tendered; you can make a case for them on ML minimum contracts, but arbitration levels? Jankowski has 5+ years of service time.)

I would suggest we assume the free agents are gone; assume several of the arbitration cases are non-tendered. Eflin, Dominguez and Hoskins are no-brainers to return; Alvarado will probably be tendered; but Knapp, Torreyes, Jankowski, Quinn? Buh bye.

Cutch and Herrera (both have club options) are, in my opinion, borderline cases to be bought out. Cutch can still hit, when he's in the lineup. Herrera's marginal, streaky, and turns 30 in December. He might repeat 2021's performance (an OPS+ of 95), but that seems to be the best-case scenario. I'd cut him loose.

So it seems to me that next year's non-pitcher roster will be composed of the guys we have under control - the multi-year contracts (Harper, Realmuto, Segura, Gregorius) and the kids, plus whatever we can acquire from the free agent pools or trades. (Yeah, I'm not thrilled about Didi, but we're on the hook for about $15 million, so he'll be there in some capacity.)

[zambonir]

Miller and Cutch aren't good enough in LF. Except on a team with a $100 million payroll or one that's pinching pennies under the CBT (so, well...). They won't necessarily be easy to sign either. Cutch will still want to play 100 games (especially with the DH) but he's the short end of a platoon now, and I'm not sure I'd pay Miller $6 million to platoon either - or even what he made this year off the bench. And if you've got $10-15 million to spend on LF you can get one player just as easily as two. Or you spend the big $ there and not on CF or 3B (since Bohm is playing the latter anyway, it seems).

I agree they should exceed the CBT (which was also true for the past two seasons), and also have little empathy for ownership crying poor, but it's impossible to imagine them spending more money next season, coming off a poorly attended 2021 sandwiched between a pandemic and a likely labor stoppage. Of course, a 90-win club would solve a lot of attendance problems.

We spent a lot of time wondering about the leadership and chemistry on this club as well as the vax stuff, and while overall they did seem to be a pretty resilient and spirited clubhouse, I see no reason to cling to anyone from this era that they don't have to (and still hope they figure out a way to either dump Didi or trade Segura).

[Taudawg]

I really like Cutch the person and I was supportive of Odubel getting a second chance. I don't want either back unless they accept well-below-market money and reduced roles. The Cutch concern (based on small sample), he hasn't produced much hitting as DH, PH or coming off bench. Someone is likely to offer Cutch a full-time job so that isn't a likely outcome. Odubel has hit very well in limited PH duties. Odubel might have a hard time landing a job in U.S., so he may accept a part-time fate. Even at a much lower $, I think I would take my chances that Haseley (or other) could provide the same bench output.

For Dombrowski to move Didi and any portion off his salary, he likely would have to package him in trade with something of solid value i.e. Nola, Hoskins, prospect(s) and still send a bunch of cash. There are a couple of bad OF contracts they might be able to swap for Didi's bad contract - Juston Upton, Jason Heyward. I don't want either, and those teams would have to send cash our way.