Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

[xogfog]

At lot of the roster shaping will be based on whether or not the NL will have the DH starting next season.

[julio]

I really like Cutch the person and I was supportive of Odubel getting a second chance. I don't want either back unless they accept well-below-market money and reduced roles.

How do you get there? If you want "well-below-market money," you have to decline the club options and pay the buyouts.

When you do that, McCutchen is a free agent. If he's limited to "well-below-market money," what makes you think he would choose to sign with the Phillies? He can probably get a short-term, below-market offer to play LF part time and DH from... the Pirates - which he would take in a Pittsburgh minute! If he's all about the money (which McCutchen is not, fairly obviously), do you think the Phils would be the highest "below market" bidder?

If you buy out Herrera, he's eligible for arbitration. He was paid $10 million this year, and he has 5+ years of service time. His arbitration award would exceed $10 million, on top of the $2.5 million buyout. The only way you get to a "below market" deal with him is to buy out the option, non-tender him, and somehow outbid everybody else "below market" for his services.

These aren't realistic expectations. IMHO, the Phils' real choices here are binary - either exercise the options, and pay eight-figure salaries to these two, or say goodbye to them.

I agree about Didi - to get rid of his contract, we'd have to pay somebody to take him - payment likely not just in cash, but in some prospect we really can't afford to lose. As annoying as it may be, I think it makes more sense to just pay him what he's owed (whether on, or off the roster may be almost immaterial) and be done with it.

[bkox]

Cutch had a 1.027 OPS versus lefties this year in 194 plate appearances. There is definitely value there.. but I dont think $15M value for basically 1/3 of a season of ABs.

[bkeich]

The Cutch concern (based on small sample), he hasn't produced much hitting as DH, PH or coming off bench. Someone is likely to offer Cutch a full-time job so that isn't a likely outcome. Odubel has hit very well in limited PH duties. Odubel might have a hard time landing a job in U.S., so he may accept a part-time fate. Even at a much lower $, I think I would take my chances that Haseley (or other) could provide the same bench output.

You had me until the Haseley statement. Honestly, I am not even sure he belongs in AA, but I would try him in Reading and see if he can start to turn his career around. He was atrocious in AAA this year also (when he chose to play). To me he is more of a release candidate than a ML option. Every plate appearance he takes is one a guy who could someday help the franchise could have had, but I guess it isnt too bad to give him a short chance, but it is frankly almost certainly a complete waste.

I agree that both Odubel and Cutch are not optimal, and frankly I dont want to see them in the starting lineup next year. I would take either back at or near the ML minimum and a bench role, they both are able to do that, and Herrera might be worth more than that. My guess is they would both get better offers from teams than what I am saying, so I think they should be moving on.

[xogfog]

I'd only bring Cutch back if he would sign a new two year deal at $10-12 AAV.

[bkeich]

My list of wants for putting together the 2022 team.

A shortstop. Need one who is an outstanding fielder and also a good hitter.
Left fielder. Very good hitter with power who is at least average in the field.
Starting pitcher. Veteran starter who projects to be a good #4.
Experienced relief pitcher. Should have closer experience.
Experienced relief pitcher.
Experienced bench player (Miller type)
Back up catcher. Must be outstanding defensively and able to hit .220 or better with at least a little power.

I like your list, but frankly I think you are about 3 relievers short. We have 0 returning. We need at least 5 semi-competent. We have 0 returning.

I fear we are back to "can they throw the ball far enough to get it to the catcher without bouncing it" as a bullpen. We need to sign at least 8-10 relievers, 7 of which are on the opening day roster. We have 0.

(well, really we have 3-4 still signed, but none of them are exactly "locks" to make the team)

[Taudawg]

Um ok, maybe I wasn't clear enough in my statement. I suggested bringing back either was not likely - Cutch was likely to get a full-time playing offer elsewhere negating any chance of a new part-time deal in Philly, and Odubel's production could be matched by another player within the organization so resigning was not sensible. Haseley was just a possibility, feel free to substitute with AAAA player of your choice Luke Williams perhaps.

[zambonir]

That's one year too long and 33% more than I'd want to pay Cutch. Righthanded platoon players are guys you can pay $5-8 million. Heck, Darin Ruf is out there playing both corner OF spots with a 143+ OPS for less than $2 milllion. Easier said than done, but this team obviously needs to find that Rule 5 or AAAA/overseas diamond in the rough, if they can't get that internally. But that's also why you have to probably try Haseley, Williams or Vierling in one spot. The gap between 5th OF and platoon OF exists, but it's not huge, if the right player breaks (and is used) the right way.

The Phillies do have relievers - Brogdon, Alvarado, Coonrod - coming back. Add Seranthony. Bring back Neris (my gut is he's the most likely to return of the three vets). Sign two guys to replace Bradley and Kennedy. The 8th guy (and depth) comes from minor leaguers (be they prospects or vets on new deals). Not sure what Romero's timeline is.

[bkox]

We have 0 returning. We need at least 5 semi-competent. We have 0 returning.

Brogdon had a 3.43 ERA and 1.127 WHIP and hes returning. Coonrod was a bit iffy but not horrid.

JD Hammer had a 2.75 ERA after 19 outings. HIs 20th gave up 5 runs and it ballooned to 4.75

Of the Free agents.. I want Neris back. I dont really want Bradley or Kennedy back

[andyb]

I'd only bring Cutch back if he would sign a new two year deal at $10-12 AAV.

I think we are looking much more like 1 year/$8 million with a second year that can vest along with some incentives and buyouts. That is more what the market would be. Anything longer than 1 year will be because Cutch just wants to go somewhere rather than the most dollars - meaning Cutch would probably lower his AAV ask if it were a good situation that wanted more than 1 year.

The DH does give one flexibility to get a player like Cutch more playing time, but agree that it should be a shared role among multiple players. JT maybe should get the most DH time (30-40 games). Then a platoon in LF would provide a defensively challenged player like Cutch a place in the lineup more often than just the L/R platoon. You probably want Cutch starting the 50 or so games against LHP and then 30-40 more against right-handers where the matchup is good. Half in the field, half at DH or something like that.

[bkox]

Obviously we just need to remind Cutch that he lost Rock-Paper-Scissors to Dusty, and another year would allow him to avenge that.. and he should sign for a discount

[andyb]

My worry with Cutch is that he just does not care about money and just wants to win. So maybe he goes somewhere like to the Dodgers where they crafted a role for Albert Pujols this year. Cutch might like that type of role and need very little money to sign up for that. As opposed to the Phillies who really can't guarantee a competitive team and that is before one even gets to the money question.

[Austinfan]

Phillies need to let Cutch go, Herrera go, Kennedy and Bradley go.
Then next year, Segura and Didi go, maybe move Nola.

At some point, they have to get away from paying 30+ old players, it's one thing to have three top guys like Harper, Wheeler, and JT, but you don't surround them with expensive veterans on the downside of their careers. We've seen how well that works the last three years.

[allentown]

You don't need to build a 90-95 win team, before adding FA. Our top 3 FA gave us a combined 15bWAR. A 90-95 win team, without added FA is bound to be the NLEast winner and has a decent chance to advance in the playoffs. Phillies won a championship with only 92 in-season wins. Didn't win one with 102. The Phillies high water mark immediately prior to 2008 was 89 wins in 2007. Prior to that, the best they did was 85 wins.

The only down-side to adding FA, which the Phillies are currently doing to be able to field a contending/respectable team is that you don't get as good position in the draft. It no longer effects the international budget. Without our current FAs, which aren't enough $ to put us over the salary cap, we are likely a 70-win team, with a better draft slot, but disgruntled fans. Phillies ownership has decided that the fanbase and market would be harmed by a 70-win team.

Looking at the Phillies 2021 season, it certainly seems that breaking the lux tax cap this year would have bought us a place in the post-season. We were close enough that this isn't an unreasonable assumption. True, it only happens because the division stunk this year, but the stinky division was expected going into the season and is now known fact. Would it have been worth it? The other down-side is ownership/management feeling the price to bust cap iwo or three years in a row is too high. Given a new CBA and likely strike in 2022, I must conclude that it probably made sense to bust cap this season. That's an after-the-fact conclusion; we didn't know the NLEast would be quite as bad as it has been.

[andyb]

At some point, they have to get away from paying 30+ old players,

That creates a false choice. Free agency is how you buy WAR with dollars. One uses free agency when you don't have younger players that would produce the same WAR for less dollars.

Trades are the larger decision point. We don't really have the prospect capital to do too many trades to get young talent. So the choice really is whether we want to compete (and thus need to spend some money to protect our prospects) or whether we want to rebuild (and trade some of our valuable core for younger players).

Maybe they should rebuild, but just giving them advice to not spend money on older players is really not saying anything, because one cannot rebuild with our organization immediately. The farm system is not good enough in talent that is almost ready or in future talent to trade. So some component of trying to compete next year has to involve spending money on somewhat older players. There is really no other credible strategy.

[Austinfan]

The cost of WAR in FA is too high to use it to build a team.

As we've seen, you quickly run into the cap even if you're smart and average $6-7M per WAR, but since you're gonna have misses, it's more like $8-9M. If you figure 40+ WAR to get to 90 or so wins, maybe 20 can come from FA.

Busting the cap is a one time thing, the penalties escalate, so even the Dodgers tend to make it an every other year or so thing.

The purpose of the cap is to keep deep pocket teams from buying championships, and it works.

So at some point you have to bite the bullet, produce your own talent, and create cap room to extend that talent.

[andyb]

So you advise them to rebuild? If it is not worth adding to our talent base with money, we are simply not good enough with our organization to compete. We get that you are philosophically against spending someone else's money on free agents. But don't setup a false choice of trying to compete with the organization we currently have while not spending money.

Frankly our strategy of spending money this past season would have worked if we got enough out of our young players like Bohm and Haseley. Didn't you used to think those players were great?

The Phillies must go over the luxury tax to save Bryce Harper’s prime

"It will likely take as little as 2-3 seasons, and likely more, in order for real progress in the minor league system to be seen at the big league level. By that time, the primes of Harper, Wheeler, J.T. Realmuto and Aaron Nola will be over."

[zambonir]

What the Good Phight quote says has been true for 2 years. But it's not like they have to go out and sign three over-30 FAs to 3+ season deals. Possibly two instead of one, if they wanted to approach the CBT early/aggressively. But other spots can be filled by one-year contracts (as Didi's should have been, and, obviously, with better results required from the fringe pitchers). Some of the biggest FAs are also a lot younger than in the past (Harper was, Correa is).

Hindsight does, IMO, say that they either should have exceeded the CBT or rebuilt - but so did foresight.

Trading one of Nola or Hoskins or Segura or Eflin might address one spot (or bring back a close-to-majors prospect). But if they don't get 4-5 wins better this year it's not gonna be much easier to do for 2023, and at that point if you've failed you're trading Nola and possibly Realmuto and Wheeler, and Dombrowski's last contractual season will be a true rebuild.

[Austinfan]

Yeah, it's one thing to buy time with judicious spending, finding bargain 1-2 year patches to build depth so you don't have to rush prospects. Of course, that requires identifying those players, if you can't do that you're really screwed - if both your professional and amateur scouts are below average.

The Phillies didn't need to add superstars, one decent veteran #4/#5 over paying $12M? for 6.00 ERA for their veteran starters, including VV. A LH OF to platoon with Cutch or a RH CF. Now there's luck, but were we really suprised when Quinn got injured? Kingery was weirder. And how come they can't find RPs?

[zambonir]

I think they did okay with relief pitchers, though we should remember to blame the manager for David Hale, and the general manager for being so locked into three failed starters, which affected the pen both when they were starting and when they weren't. Devoting three roster spots to those guys might have been the real hidden cost of going that way instead of getting one $10 million starter and another reliever. Though they also needed all those starters (even Howard).

But Alvarado and Coonrod were solid adds/fair trades, and Bradley was bumpy but ultimately fine (just like Hector and Kennedy). They blew it on Kintzler, and maybe especially on picking him over Watson, though Watson didn't truly thrive until SF's coaches got him. If you bring in four veteran relief arms and two hit you probably did fine. And knowing who is worth $6 million guaranteed and who is worth a $3 million minor league deal is not so easy to figure out.