Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

allentown 2021-10-05 01:09:56 UTC #121

I think that's true. The real problem contract was Didi. And, before that, Kingery (both because there wasn't sufficient body of work to make the deal before he had done anything in majors, but also because it [and Covid] was a part of ruining him -- way too much pressure, the sort of deal the team had never done -- and then not even giving him a fixed position.) They have $ for a decent sized FA contract this winter. Unfortunately, it's highly unlikely the NLEast will be there for the taking, as it was this year.

allentown 2021-10-05 01:38:24 UTC #122

But they wouldn't be in that situation, wouldn't have been nearly close enough for such things to matter, if they hadn't already brought the big 3 FA and their 15 WAR on board.

On another point: I remember many of your posts over the years. Very much the same, including always pointing at all of the many very promising prospects we have in the very low minors. Please look back at all of those kids you saw as the promising future 2, 4, 6, 8 years ago. Pretty much a wasteland viewed from today. As someone, I think it was AndyB, said above: all teams have promising, highly interesting, very raw prospects by the handsful in their low minors. Many teams have guys in this category who are acknowledged to be future comers by much of baseball. We don't. We were pretty much laughed at for sticking with $4 million for Ortiz by the time he signed. His star had already fallen considerably. Toronto got Vlad, Jr. for those $ -- excelled right out of the gate, hit the majors at 20; OPS above 1.000 in the majors at age 22. The good ones move a lot faster than you credit. The speed at which our international players move through the system, while only being 'interesting', puts a real ceiling on their chances of becoming a star or even a plus starter.

It's not that there aren't a number of truly interesting prospects in our lower minors. It's just that they don't stand out as anything special, compared to other organizations and lack the kid who looks like a future star, whom other orgs have. Worse at AAA. A fair number of guys who look like they'll make it, nobody who looks special. I think Ortiz will make it. He'll probably hit 30 HRs if he plays full time. He also probably won't ever break .230. He doesn't look like a $4 mill international man.

zambonir 2021-10-05 02:20:03 UTC #123

Who knows!? The Mets are still a mess. And the Braves, Freeman is aging and they still need OFs.

Of course the Phillies could also have the sort of pitching luck next year that the Braves and Mets had this year.

They are fun to read, but AF always makes those all-homegrown depth charts. They were never going to be 100% right but to only be 25% just isn't good enough. I think we could probably find the post that had Moniak beating out Herrera for the starting CF job in 2020, with Williams and Altherr holding down the corners and Haseley sliding in mid-season. And that's just the OF!

I said it elsewhere but I still feel like the JP trade really, really killed us. It - and signing Cutch - only really made sense in the first place when they were targeting Machado. Collectively, it ended Williams' career - which maybe would have happened anyway - and created the current Segura/Didi conundrum.

Dirk41 2021-10-05 07:15:02 UTC #124

Carlos Correa would be a perfect fit if they spend money.

gmwannabe 2021-10-05 12:05:41 UTC #125

Segura conundrum? Hitting .290 with an almost .800 OPS. Nah i don't think that is a problem there. the kid had a very good season.
gm

EDmuch 2021-10-05 12:44:02 UTC #126

First step is to draw a line thru the names Haseley and Moniak. Then never mention those names again.

Second, step is to recognize that in fact we had a pretty good team this past year. Let's face it, if we had only 20 blown saves rather than 34, we win the division and are probably a tough team to handle in a short playoff series. We did what we did this season without Hoskins, our best right hand hitter for 1/3 of the season and with a bullpen that was laughable. There are some additional moves that we can make to upgrade the team without breaking the bank.

Again, I have to say we try to get Miller and Cutch under contract as a platoon for $17 million. IN a platoon they can give us Costellanos type offensive numbers (at least 30 home runs) without having to pay for a Costellanos contract. He will be walking away form a Cincinnati contract that currently pays him $17 million per year. It is a pretty safe bet that he will be looking for a 5-6 year contract in the range of $22-25 million per year. Miller would also give us a bat to replace Boem at 3b in the event of slumps and also a bat off the bench that is capable of hitting a late inning home run.

With that "savings" and Herrera's money, we can get Chris Taylor to play center field. Taylor had special value because, against lefties, we can bench Didi, move him to Shortstop and have Veirling play center. In addition, if we hit the 7th inning with a lead, we can again move him to SS in place of Didi, and put Torreyes in at 3rd in place of Bohm. Taylor would give us the flexibility to deal with the Didi problem.

Then add a high quality closer like Kimbrel to cut down on the blown saves. While KImbrel would be expensive, he would be the only player that would require an extended contract. I think Cutch, Miller and Taylor could all be signed for two year deals. These moves would tighten up the roster defensively, provide good offense
and provide for only a limited increase beyond the Cap.

andyb 2021-10-05 13:15:18 UTC #127

The worry I have with someone like Chris Taylor is that they are 31 and you would be getting him in the years where he might not be a plus fielder any more. He was already -0.2 dWAR last year playing more CF than anything else. If it is a 1 or 2 year deal then fine, but I worry about him staying at CF and SS for anything longer.

Obviously that is a concern with any free agent SS or CF. Correa is younger, though one could argue accumulated injuries and size might push him to SS in a couple of years anyway.

If I had to choose on where to get a good defensive player I would probably pick SS. I think I am fine with a CF that might move to LF in a year or two with Muzziotti and Rojas on the horizon. I also would not completely dismiss all of our perceived failed CFs. Haseley still could be a 750 OPS guy who can play a passable CF, certainly as well as Vierling can. Moniak still might take his offense up another notch. And we know Kingery still has talent and you really want him to recover his offense and take a utility spot on the bench where he could put himself in the mix to play 2B or CF at some point.

We'll definitely need to buy a bat for LF, but it is possible I am OK mixing and matching in CF or getting a second tier free agent there. SS and the bullpen seem the priority for me. Making a decision on Bohm too will be critical.

bigegypt0417 2021-10-05 13:24:41 UTC #128

Oh boy...the president of the JP Crawford fan club is ready to eat the young again.

there is no world where you cross off the names of two first round picks who still have plenty of time to perform.

Girardi completely mishandled Moniak and he should have left him at AAA for the season.

Haseley deserves another spring to show what he has.

Austinfan 2021-10-05 13:35:01 UTC #129

I simply don't believe that those 1st rd picks were devoid of talent.

We're not talking "reaches" here where the Phillies went after guys who were longshots, or high ceiling/low floor.
The development process simply failed. Especially with Haseley and Bohm, who should have been low risk given their college careers. At least with Randolph and Moniak there's higher risk for HS hitters, but both have performed well below any reasonable expectations.

Missing on one is normal, missing on four means something is rotten in the state of Denmark.
These are the same scouts who found Vierling, Williams and Maton in later rounds - not that they're stars, but they've outperformed the 1st rd picks so far.

The first thing Mattingly needs to do is fix the coaching problem, get consistent, quality instruction up and down the minor league system, and you can spend an extra million or so hiring the right people and get tens of millions in player value. And that expenditure doesn't come against the cap. I'd rather see the money spent there than on some marginal 30+ RP.

andyb 2021-10-05 13:35:43 UTC #130

I am just a fan of not giving up on young talent. Yes we could trade Moniak or Haseley but it is also likely they would not bring us much in a trade. Frankly the guy to trade could be someone like Vierling who is probably not as good as his late season stats (the AAA performance in a much larger sample was mediocre).

I am not really advocating a trade of any specific young player, but I do hate trades where you get a fraction of a player's potential value coming off a bad season.

bigegypt0417 2021-10-05 13:38:44 UTC #131

Agreed...they don't hold enough value to make it worth the time.

I agree on Vierling as well...he may never be worth what he is today...whatever that may actually be.

Austinfan 2021-10-05 13:49:13 UTC #132

You trade young talent when you have a surplus of young talent and you're blocking players or may lose players in the Rule 5 draft. When you're devoid of young, cheap talent, trading what little talent you have just digs the hole deeper.

Vierling obviously overperformed in the Show. Watching him, he didn't look over matched. He certainly got a big BABIP boost (.420), but his BB rate was well below his AA/AAA performance. However, remember he jumped 3 levels in one season. He shouldn't be counted on to start, but could be part of an OF platoon.

They need to salvage one or two young OFs, whether it's Kingery, Moniak, Haseley or Randolph. And they have to get Bohm on track and handle Stott correctly. They don't need these guys to be stars, just provide enough OF depth that you only have to spend on one guy, and fill the black hole at 3B and maybe push Didi to the bench at some point. Otherwise next season will be a long year. They can only afford one major and a couple minor FAs.

andyb 2021-10-05 13:53:21 UTC #133

It is this sentence that should give one pause. Unsustainable BABIP coupled with a walk rate that suggests he'll regress when pitchers get a book on him. There is actually some logic or science behind why some young players do well their first time around the league and then regress. Pitchers learn how to pitch to them, and being aggressive at the plate becomes a negative rather than a positive. He has a shot at being a bench player of course, but it is no better than the other OFs that some are trying to part with (i.e. Moniak and Haseley).

allentown 2021-10-05 16:08:05 UTC #134

But, I think you make my point, rather than your own with this comment. Yes it is the same scouts (or at least the same bunch of area scouts) as identified the failed and 'failed' first rounders...but, it is also the same development staff that tried to develop both these guys and the first rounders. What is different is the extent to which these lower $ guys can be selected, based principally upon an area scout's recommendation. For the 1st and 2nd rounds the higher ups -- the many higher ups, have the huge role in making the decision. I think that's where (plus development) the problem has been. I agree: Bohm should hit; his bat wasn't in question. That is largely on the development staff messing with him. Kingery should hit. Hasely to a lesser extent, and I wouldn't expect the power the Phillies have messed him around in search of. I think all of these guys, and Moniak and Ortiz and Muzziotti and Pujols will be in MLB, but our guys have been having shorter and lesser MLB careers than they should be having. We have had a lot of horrendous H.S. position player draft picks in the first round and high $ international list, but I don't think any of these guys are on that list although Ortiz definitely shouldn't have been a $4 million man. I don't find the Randolph 'fail' particularly surprising. A very risky HS pick and a bad pick (as with Moniak) in that the PHillies organization almost immediately decided that they didn't want the sort of hitters that these guys were and proceeded to try to remake them into the sort of guys they could have taken in a later round.

Moniak in particular is a victim of a change in organizational philosophy. He is a prime square peg being pounded to fit a round hole. When we drafted him, Gillick and everybody else raved about his beautiful swing and how much time his bat spent in the zone. Then we wanted power. We decided every player must have a swing which generated loft. A sane organization simply doesn't do that. If you spend a 1.1 on a guy, because you love his swing, you don't sacrifice that swing to the gods of loft.

Austinfan 2021-10-05 16:32:17 UTC #135

Yep. They hired people with a hammer, and every hitter became a nail.

With someone like Moniak, knowing he'd naturally develop power as he physically matured, why would you mess with his stroke? At most you help him make subtle adjustments, like being able to pull inside FBs when you're ahead of the count.

This is also why I think a new coaching staff could make a huge difference, Vierling made a big jump when he got his own hitting instructor and ignored the team's coaching. You take a kid like Moniak, go back to the film that got him drafted high, and get him doing what worked for him.

It's not just the Phillies who are stupid, Appel was a dominant college pitcher throwing a great 2-seamer, then Houston decided he should be a 4 seam pitcher, instead of working with what he excelled at and tweaking it (teaching him to throw a 4 seamer high in the K-zone as a "show me" pitch to make his 2 seamer more effective).

Different strokes for different folks, if Ortiz can't fix his contact issues, he should be coached to be a high impact player who focuses on walks and HRs. Haseley was a contact hitter with gap power, why change it?

andyb 2021-10-05 16:43:50 UTC #136

Remember all those Robbie Ray rumors over the years? The consensus here (me included) was that he was not worth overpaying in a trade for when the cost would have been modest. Well he might be the AL Cy Young winner (he has the stats, Gerrit Cole has the NY pedigree and the wins). Sometimes these mid-level players with good stuff improve and are relative bargains. Like Zach Wheeler too.

Austinfan 2021-10-05 17:00:15 UTC #137

I liked the Wheeler signing because his play justified his salary, but there was substantial upside left.
I hated the Arrieta signing because his play barely justified his salary, but his decline in velocity suggested there was a lot of downside risk but no upside benefit.

Philsmania 2021-10-05 17:13:04 UTC #138

Meanwhile, in Cincinnati, the Reds--another organization that was late to the analytics and sport science party and seemingly outsourced a lot of minor league coaching to Driveline in an effort to catch up--are also now cutting ties to Driveline.

zambonir 2021-10-05 17:13:19 UTC #139

He had a nice season. Problem is he's not a kid. Also, the narrative was that he was out of shape and unfocused in 2020, but just because he got his average up from .266 to .290 doesn't mean he was really that much better. Only a slight bump in OPS/OPS+.

Except for his first year in Philly where he was also miscast at SS he's consistently been a 3.7 WAR, 110ish OPS+ guy, and that's really good, but the fact that he is good, and at risk of dropping off, would be the reason to try and get something for him if you can't trade Didi. It's easy to say "bench Didi"; what's hard is to get rid of someone before he joins Didi (and Cutch) in dropping off.

I think they should probably trade one of Haseley or Moniak, but it probably doesn't matter. You should cross their names out for 2022, not forever. They are not likely to both help the MLB team in 2022, and if one of them does it's probably not going to be as an everyday OF. And at this moment, they both seem to need more time in AAA.

BostonRoss 2021-10-05 17:58:51 UTC #140

I agree with allentown. The Braves seem to be able to find outfielders. They traded for four in late July who hit 44 homers for them. Those guys will be gone, but Acuna will return, and if they need more, they know how to get them. And the aging Freeman accumulated 4.7 WAR in 2021.