Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

But they wouldn't be in that situation, wouldn't have been nearly close enough for such things to matter, if they hadn't already brought the big 3 FA and their 15 WAR on board.

On another point: I remember many of your posts over the years. Very much the same, including always pointing at all of the many very promising prospects we have in the very low minors. Please look back at all of those kids you saw as the promising future 2, 4, 6, 8 years ago. Pretty much a wasteland viewed from today. As someone, I think it was AndyB, said above: all teams have promising, highly interesting, very raw prospects by the handsful in their low minors. Many teams have guys in this category who are acknowledged to be future comers by much of baseball. We don't. We were pretty much laughed at for sticking with $4 million for Ortiz by the time he signed. His star had already fallen considerably. Toronto got Vlad, Jr. for those $ -- excelled right out of the gate, hit the majors at 20; OPS above 1.000 in the majors at age 22. The good ones move a lot faster than you credit. The speed at which our international players move through the system, while only being 'interesting', puts a real ceiling on their chances of becoming a star or even a plus starter.

It's not that there aren't a number of truly interesting prospects in our lower minors. It's just that they don't stand out as anything special, compared to other organizations and lack the kid who looks like a future star, whom other orgs have. Worse at AAA. A fair number of guys who look like they'll make it, nobody who looks special. I think Ortiz will make it. He'll probably hit 30 HRs if he plays full time. He also probably won't ever break .230. He doesn't look like a $4 mill international man.

Carlos Correa would be a perfect fit if they spend money.

Segura conundrum? Hitting .290 with an almost .800 OPS. Nah i don't think that is a problem there. the kid had a very good season.
gm

The worry I have with someone like Chris Taylor is that they are 31 and you would be getting him in the years where he might not be a plus fielder any more. He was already -0.2 dWAR last year playing more CF than anything else. If it is a 1 or 2 year deal then fine, but I worry about him staying at CF and SS for anything longer.

Obviously that is a concern with any free agent SS or CF. Correa is younger, though one could argue accumulated injuries and size might push him to SS in a couple of years anyway.

If I had to choose on where to get a good defensive player I would probably pick SS. I think I am fine with a CF that might move to LF in a year or two with Muzziotti and Rojas on the horizon. I also would not completely dismiss all of our perceived failed CFs. Haseley still could be a 750 OPS guy who can play a passable CF, certainly as well as Vierling can. Moniak still might take his offense up another notch. And we know Kingery still has talent and you really want him to recover his offense and take a utility spot on the bench where he could put himself in the mix to play 2B or CF at some point.

We'll definitely need to buy a bat for LF, but it is possible I am OK mixing and matching in CF or getting a second tier free agent there. SS and the bullpen seem the priority for me. Making a decision on Bohm too will be critical.

Oh boy...the president of the JP Crawford fan club is ready to eat the young again.

there is no world where you cross off the names of two first round picks who still have plenty of time to perform.

Girardi completely mishandled Moniak and he should have left him at AAA for the season.

Haseley deserves another spring to show what he has.

I simply don't believe that those 1st rd picks were devoid of talent.

We're not talking "reaches" here where the Phillies went after guys who were longshots, or high ceiling/low floor.
The development process simply failed. Especially with Haseley and Bohm, who should have been low risk given their college careers. At least with Randolph and Moniak there's higher risk for HS hitters, but both have performed well below any reasonable expectations.

Missing on one is normal, missing on four means something is rotten in the state of Denmark.
These are the same scouts who found Vierling, Williams and Maton in later rounds - not that they're stars, but they've outperformed the 1st rd picks so far.

The first thing Mattingly needs to do is fix the coaching problem, get consistent, quality instruction up and down the minor league system, and you can spend an extra million or so hiring the right people and get tens of millions in player value. And that expenditure doesn't come against the cap. I'd rather see the money spent there than on some marginal 30+ RP.

Agreed...they don't hold enough value to make it worth the time.

I agree on Vierling as well...he may never be worth what he is today...whatever that may actually be.

You trade young talent when you have a surplus of young talent and you're blocking players or may lose players in the Rule 5 draft. When you're devoid of young, cheap talent, trading what little talent you have just digs the hole deeper.

Vierling obviously overperformed in the Show. Watching him, he didn't look over matched. He certainly got a big BABIP boost (.420), but his BB rate was well below his AA/AAA performance. However, remember he jumped 3 levels in one season. He shouldn't be counted on to start, but could be part of an OF platoon.

They need to salvage one or two young OFs, whether it's Kingery, Moniak, Haseley or Randolph. And they have to get Bohm on track and handle Stott correctly. They don't need these guys to be stars, just provide enough OF depth that you only have to spend on one guy, and fill the black hole at 3B and maybe push Didi to the bench at some point. Otherwise next season will be a long year. They can only afford one major and a couple minor FAs.

It is this sentence that should give one pause. Unsustainable BABIP coupled with a walk rate that suggests he'll regress when pitchers get a book on him. There is actually some logic or science behind why some young players do well their first time around the league and then regress. Pitchers learn how to pitch to them, and being aggressive at the plate becomes a negative rather than a positive. He has a shot at being a bench player of course, but it is no better than the other OFs that some are trying to part with (i.e. Moniak and Haseley).

Yep. They hired people with a hammer, and every hitter became a nail.

With someone like Moniak, knowing he'd naturally develop power as he physically matured, why would you mess with his stroke? At most you help him make subtle adjustments, like being able to pull inside FBs when you're ahead of the count.

This is also why I think a new coaching staff could make a huge difference, Vierling made a big jump when he got his own hitting instructor and ignored the team's coaching. You take a kid like Moniak, go back to the film that got him drafted high, and get him doing what worked for him.

It's not just the Phillies who are stupid, Appel was a dominant college pitcher throwing a great 2-seamer, then Houston decided he should be a 4 seam pitcher, instead of working with what he excelled at and tweaking it (teaching him to throw a 4 seamer high in the K-zone as a "show me" pitch to make his 2 seamer more effective).

Different strokes for different folks, if Ortiz can't fix his contact issues, he should be coached to be a high impact player who focuses on walks and HRs. Haseley was a contact hitter with gap power, why change it?

Remember all those Robbie Ray rumors over the years? The consensus here (me included) was that he was not worth overpaying in a trade for when the cost would have been modest. Well he might be the AL Cy Young winner (he has the stats, Gerrit Cole has the NY pedigree and the wins). Sometimes these mid-level players with good stuff improve and are relative bargains. Like Zach Wheeler too.

I liked the Wheeler signing because his play justified his salary, but there was substantial upside left.
I hated the Arrieta signing because his play barely justified his salary, but his decline in velocity suggested there was a lot of downside risk but no upside benefit.

Meanwhile, in Cincinnati, the Reds--another organization that was late to the analytics and sport science party and seemingly outsourced a lot of minor league coaching to Driveline in an effort to catch up--are also now cutting ties to Driveline.

He had a nice season. Problem is he's not a kid. Also, the narrative was that he was out of shape and unfocused in 2020, but just because he got his average up from .266 to .290 doesn't mean he was really that much better. Only a slight bump in OPS/OPS+.

Except for his first year in Philly where he was also miscast at SS he's consistently been a 3.7 WAR, 110ish OPS+ guy, and that's really good, but the fact that he is good, and at risk of dropping off, would be the reason to try and get something for him if you can't trade Didi. It's easy to say "bench Didi"; what's hard is to get rid of someone before he joins Didi (and Cutch) in dropping off.

I think they should probably trade one of Haseley or Moniak, but it probably doesn't matter. You should cross their names out for 2022, not forever. They are not likely to both help the MLB team in 2022, and if one of them does it's probably not going to be as an everyday OF. And at this moment, they both seem to need more time in AAA.

I agree with allentown. The Braves seem to be able to find outfielders. They traded for four in late July who hit 44 homers for them. Those guys will be gone, but Acuna will return, and if they need more, they know how to get them. And the aging Freeman accumulated 4.7 WAR in 2021.