Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

[LoneStarPhan]

Correa's contract would have put the Phillies past the next level and into the third tier, if I understand the new system correctly. I think the second tier goes to $250MM and adding $33+ to the approximate $240MM the Phillies are now around puts them over $270+MM.

They Phillies probably can add a couple million and not move to the second tier. They also might move a little salary in a trade but I don't think they can make a significant savings without adding prospects, which I hope they do not do.

But really, who saw the Twins making this commitment? Of course, only a 3 year deal makes the total obligation manageable.

[Aquapong]

Well if we’re not in contention at the deadline, we’ve got lots of FA’s to be that we can trade to get under the tax.

[Squire]

Random Thoughts:
1. This is obviously Gregorius' last year
2. I think this is likely Segura's last year (I don't think we pick up his 17M option for 2023)
3. Hoskins probably plays his two remaining arb years and then walks as a FA

[gmwannabe]

Squire, I saw you future lineups, through 2024, on the other sight. looks pretty good except I think the Kid will be in CF by '24. and I don't mean Muzziotti.
gm

[Squire]

Agree. That was a mistake on my part.

[EDmuch]

Squire, could you repost on this site the projected lineups yo posted on another site?

I could see them picking up Segura at a lower price, say $8 million for a year for 2 years after declining his $17 million option. whether Segura would take that, I do not know. But those 2 years could allow our shortstop options to reach the majors and make it easy to move Stott to second base.

[andyb]

Correa's contract would have put the Phillies past the next level and into the third tier, if I understand the new system correctly. I think the second tier goes to $250MM and adding $33+ to the approximate $240MM the Phillies are now around puts them over $270+MM.

They Phillies probably can add a couple million and not move to the second tier. They also might move a little salary in a trade but I don't think they can make a significant savings without adding prospects, which I hope they do not do.

Cot's actually has us less than a million over the CBT threshold.

MLB Philadelphia 22

Remember they had a placeholder of the $700K minimum in each roster spot, so while we mentally add $20 million for Castellanos the actual CBT increase is only $19.3 million.

Now we will need $3-$5 million more for IL moves (JoJo Romero will make the $700K minimum most likely off the roster for instance), but we are actually not that far over. If we are done adding, there are actually many paths to get back under later in the year if the team is not doing well. And lots of room to the next threshold. Correa would have put us close to that threshold, but still about $4 million under.

[zambonir]

I don't think anyone thinks the Phillies should go to Tier 2 for Correa. They just should have signed him instead of one of the two DHs. He'll hit free agency again at a younger age while we're still paying our guys too.

[allentown]

A strange off-season. I'm pleased that we didn't trade our top minor leaguers, but both Schwarber and Castellanos (either alone would be great) seems strange, even dumb. We are going to have a really bad D with iffy pitching, which will negate the offense. Seeing how little 3 years of Correa cost, that was the way to go. I fear the half innings when we aren't at bat will be long and painful and that we have not moved the needle much on wins (perhaps 85-86), only changed how we lose. We've also built a team that will age quickly, while still being owed a ton of $. Just too much of almost the same type of player.

[Squire]

Just some musings

2022 Lineup
1B Hoskins
2B Segura
SS Gregorius
3B Bohm
LF Castellanos/Schwarber
CF Herrera/Vierling
RF Harper
C Realmuto
DH Castellanos/Schwarber

2023 Lineup
1B Hoskins
2B ? Maybe Maton (doubt we pick up Segura's 17M option at age 33)
SS Stott
3B Bohm
LF Castellanos/Schwarber
CF Vierling/Muzziotti
RF Harper
C Realmuto/O'Hoppe
DH Castellanos/Schwarber

2024 Lineup
1B Bohm
2B Garcia/Stott
SS Stott/Garcia
3B Vierling
LF Castellanos/Schwarber
CF Rojas/Muzziotti
RF Harper
C Realmuto/O'Hoppe
DH Castellanos/Schwarber

I guess I don't count on Kingery, Haseley but its conceivable they resurrect their careers.

[EDmuch]

Depending upon the pitching this could be a 90--92 win team. There is a lot of firepower in that lineup.

[EDmuch]

Thanks Squire. I agree those are interesting projections and show that we are not on the way to being an old, dawdling team. I think you correctly show a transition as some oft he prospects come of age over the next three years.

[Austinfan]

If you trade Hoskins next winter, you can get some young assets back.

But the key is some young players stepping up next year, O'Hoppe, Ortiz, Muzzioti/Rojas, Garcia, and some young bullpen arms.

If that happens, you can work around your 30 year old 1B/DH candidates, playing them part-time in LF with Vierling/Ortiz available. And with a speedy CF to compensate for aging corner OFs.

If Segura leaves, you need a 2B, unless Garcia wins the SS job on defense, moving Stott to 2B.

If O'Hoppe is ready, then JT only catches 100 games and DH's.

If Bohm becomes the player they thought they were drafting, they're set at 3B.

A lot of "IFs", but they've bought a year at a high price.

[Aquapong]

There’s no need to pay a non-elite 2b the money we’re paying Segura. There’s always 2ish war 2B available.

We’re going to need a lot of pitching next off season as well.

[EDmuch]

Nobody is suggesting paying Segura what he would get on his option. But he is still an above average second baseman who would be valuable to keep around at a reduced price for another year or two until we have a better read on Garcia.

[zambonir]

Seeing how little 3 years of Correa cost, that was the way to go. I fear the half innings when we aren't at bat will be long and painful and that we have not moved the needle much on wins (perhaps 85-86), only changed how we lose.

I very much agree about Correa and that the floor is still 85-86 is the rotation doesn't break right. But the rotation could also break very right (Wheeler only drops off slightly, Suarez is for real, Nola and Eflin are both acceptable middle guys with 2-3 WAR). Gibson still a big upgrade over last year's 5-6 struggles and (while this is the same-old same-old) surely the bullpen will be two wins better.

[EDmuch]

I doubt Correa was available before the work stoppage and I have my doubts about the Twins signing him to a contract where he can opt out every year. Does not seem to me that he would be much of a teammate if eh constantly has one foot out the door. Indeed, the contract almost works against the Twins. If he shows he is worth the $32 million or more, the odds are they lose him the next season. It is only if his performance is below expectation that they probably get to keep him for the whole 3 years. Twins in effect are playing poker against themselves.

[zambonir]

He clearly wasn't available before the stoppage but the Phillies didn't sign anyone before the stoppage - or consider exceeding the CBT before this week. The Phillies also could have signed him to a bigger deal than the Twins did.

Players respect teammates who make great deals for himself. No, I wouldn't want to lose him after one year, but two wouldn't be bad. And the Phillies (unlike the Twins, presumably) also could have re-signed him to a bigger better deal if he took the opt-out (and hey, still could!). As they just did with the guy who opted out from the Reds. Was he a bad teammate in 2020 and 2021 with one foot out the door?

[allentown]

As they just did with the guy who opted out from the Reds. Was he a bad teammate in 2020 and 2021 with one foot out the door?

Exactly! The salaries of older players depends upon guys who push the FA salary envelope and they support such guys. Thome was such a guy when he came to the Phillies. It's not disloyalty to your team and teammates, it's loyalty to the younger players who will face FA a few years down the road.

[gmwannabe]

I think the musings projections looks pretty good.
gm