Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

[allentown]

Yes, not unreasonable to expect 7 rWAR from Correa during at least first 3-5 years of contract, which takes us through years in which to win with Harper/Wheeler/Nola/Realmuto. For that time, it is less than $5mill/WAR which is below market . Further, Correa actually solves major problems for the team, which Castellano simply doesn't.

[bigegypt0417]

Where have you seen a 25 million a year number for Castellanos? He's essentially going to be in the same neighborhood as Schwarber. The years for Correa will be more than I think anyone should be comfortable with.

[bigegypt0417]

It really impossible to compare Correa and Castellanos as we're talking about significantly less years and much less money. Correa is a very good player but he's about to be paid as an elite player which he hasn't actually shown through his career.

[allentown]

I think valid comparison, because the bulk of discussion has been the need to win now during the prime period of our high-priced stars and Nola (and Eflin?). Thus I'm only considering the first half of a Correa deal. We know the Phillies are going to be hurting in the end years of Harper's deal. Likely also the end-years of Correa, and the two overlap by at least a few years. Either the Phillies have learned to create a stream of low-cost, homegrown, significant contributors by then, or we are in a major rebuild-mode at that time, whether or not we have Correa's contract alongside Harper's. In addition to the big bat that so many posters are seeking, Correa gives us an elite fielder at a key position. To me Castellanos will just add to our collection of DH-types who sort-of play a position. If he plays corner OF, which is his best spot, then he degrades the value of Schwarber/Harper. He just isn't a fit, because it's a lot of money and doesn't fill a real hole. Our glut of DH-types will bite harder and harder as our players age.

[andyb]

We don't know the number for Castellanos yet. Maybe he has misplayed the market, but he was initially supposed to get more years and dollars than Schwarber.

Correa also is younger (3 years) and plays a position of need (SS) and will likely stay in the infield at least at 3B for most of any contract. There is just no comparison in how they might age.

Teams that load up on slow sluggers that can't play defense tend to age really, really quickly. The 1993 Phillies for instance.

[fish]

My bet would be 5 years 110

[allentown]

$22 million is still a lot to solve a non-problem, when defense and pitching are gaping holes. Let's say an extra $11 mill a year buys a real solution. Isn't that more practical. If you are going to make a splash and go over the soft cap for first time, make it a whale of a splash, not throwing a stone into the pond.

[fish]

$22 million is still a lot to solve a non-problem, when defense and pitching are gaping holes. Let's say an extra $11 mill a year buys a real solution. Isn't that more practical. If you are going to make a splash and go over the soft cap for first time, make it a whale of a splash, not throwing a stone into the pond.

100% agree.

[andyb]

Talking with a Dodger fan friend and there is a similar issue with the Freeman deal. The Dodgers already had a good offense, so Freeman helps them less than he would help a team with more offensive holes.

I am not really down on Castellanos (other than losing the pick). I just would not have done Schwarber if I knew I could add Castellanos. Better to use the second pot of money to improve at SS or CF or even the starting rotation. Now options are dwindling as we get closer to the season and the number of top free agents is small, but we pay our GM big bucks to have a plan at the beginning of the offseason and then execute that plan.

[David_Criss]

There just aren’t any SS, save Story and Correa, CF, LF or 3B candidates readily available via trade, given the Phillies assets (O’Hoppe/Marchan) or free agency. Look at what Chapman cost.

Is it better to add Conforto and/or Pham to platoon and rotate with Herrera and Vierling? How much would they cost?

They could still need a starter, too to start the season – Cueto, Smyly, oft. Injured Pineda or Davies. No pitcher is going to want to jump at the chance to pitch in front of this defense. I am afraid we are stuck with Didi’s glove and bat at SS.

[zambonir]

Why not Conforto instead of Castellanos is a valid Q, though you'd probably just dump Herrera if so.

We'll see if A) the Phillies really land Castellanos and B) if they really stay over the threshold (though any ideas in that direction would seem to be complicated, or require them to give up talent to unload salary).

On the bright side if they cross the CBT they can go ahead and add another starter too - or will be able to easily do so in July, along with the inevitable bullpen depth or defensive upgrade.

[andyb]

Well there are Story and Correa. And Seager and Semien were there earlier. If we knew that we could exceed the CBT for the right players we should have been thinking that thought in November when there were more available players.

[andyb]

I think Conforto wants a short deal to reset his value in the free agent market. Costs a pick too.

[Aquapong]

Maybe it’s just Boras using the Phillies against the team he really wants to sign Castellanos.

[EDmuch]

People seem to be missing the key point. DD may have finally convinced Middleton to cross the CBT. For that we should be cheering not complaining. If we sign Castellanos and go over teh cap that frees up more money to get a pitcher if needed at the deadline and have to money to pay them. The key is, as it has been for a while to convince Middeleon to go over the CBT for a couple of years while our prospects develop. I DON'T WANT ANY TRADES from the limited talent pool we are finally starting to develop below the MLB level. Great if we get Castellanos. (We probably don't want Conforto because he is a left handed bat). Without Castellanos we have a mediocre offense to go along with a mediocre pitching staff and a poor defense. We have lost McCutcheon's 28 home runs and MIller's 20 HR plus about 130 RBI's between them. Schwarber barely keeps us on pace with last year while the Mets and Braves continue to grow. I don't know why people seem to want to keep this team mediocre in all categories. Sign Castellanos and while you are over the cap, go look for a pitcher like Cueto or Smyley to add. Meanwhile hang on to the prospects we have and hope for a break out from Falter, Vierling, Stott or Kingery.

[zambonir]

I agree with each of the last three posts.

[zambonir]

It sounds like this is something of an Arrieta situation, i.e., "at that price, we should do it!" (Even though he's still not going to be cheap - still more than Schwarber, this suggests.)

And then you have Boras, who gets on great with Middleton, and Dombrowski, wanting to bring in a player he discovered and developed. The latter could easily cut either way though - he knows the guy and can vouch for him, or he has blinders on.

I don't think Gelb and Stark are Boras mouthpieces, so Phillies are definitely serious.

Why the Phillies want Nick Castellanos and are willing to pay luxury tax to land...

[julio]

Posted without comment.

In some ways Kris Bryant fit Philly best. But as it turned out, they got both Schwarber and Castellanos for less than Bryant received by himself — $179M to $182M

— Jon Heyman ( @JonHeyman ) March 19, 2022

[baseballoldie]

No chance for the Phillies to get Correa too - per Jeff Paasan, Correa signs with the Twins

[zambonir]

I think Correa would have taken them to the next tax threshold! But the Twins, wow.