Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

[zambonir]

This is something that cannot be ignored, not that Bohm is coming off a great season, too. I'd run away from that deal.

3.5 bWAR still would have been tied for third-best on the Phillies (with JT). And yes, a massive offensive upgrade over Bohm (75 OPS+ vs. 100 OPS+).

You just have to hope this is like Segura (who had a 91 OPS+ in 2019) rather than a player headed off the cliff, and given his age, apparent health and defensive value, I don't think it's a huge risk. At the right price, of course.

I was thinking about Herrera as soon as the Familia signing was announced (and Familia's case was not as bad!). Was also thinking about the item yesterday saying teams are trying to rope mid-level vets into minor league deals before they go to arbitration with some of their own vets. That doesn't really apply to the Phillies. I'd really only want to see him (all other things aside) as a bench player on a minor league or cheap deal. Otherwise he's the starting CF over Vierling (platoon-wise).

[andyb]

A Chapman move is a short term/win now move for 2 years. The question for Bohm is whether they think he can be what they projected offensively. Remember offensively he is supposed to be a high average/high OBP guy with medium power. That can be a pretty valuable player. Easily better than Chapman offensively even for the short term if Chapman's offense last year is closer to his future than his peak.

I am wary of dealing too much for Chapman, but I understand it. It also the type of move that sets up this club to be pretty bad in 3-4 years. If all the offensive players age, Nola moves on, and guys like Abel and Painter if around are inconsistent rookies then you very well might have a club that loses 100 games. Something to be mindful of.

[zambonir]

I am wary of dealing too much for Chapman, but I understand it. It also the type of move that sets up this club to be pretty bad in 3-4 years. If all the offensive players age, Nola moves on, and guys like Abel and Painter if around are inconsistent rookies then you very well might have a club that loses 100 games. Something to be mindful of.

They are set up for that regardless! I mean, I know this is reflexive negativity but if Bohm is merely an above-average hitter who can't play 3B (or worse, another Franco) and Stott is a 2B (or worse, another Kingery) and TINSAAPP (probably not realistic to ever expect both Abel and Painter to pitch in the same rotation together for very long) that puts them in the same place. If this 2022 team doesn't seriously threaten to win 90 games I don't know how you even try to run it back in 2023. Which is obviously another reason to hold on to the young guys.

In any case, I still don't touch Chapman unless it's lower-cost or part of a bigger deal. But I'm open to the idea of trading one of the young pitchers instead of Bohm, because Bohm can still help over the next two years and have a future beyond that and the pitchers might not do either.

If they aren't making short-term win now moves for the next two years I'm not sure what they are actually doing (or why Girardi and Dombrowski are doing it).

[kmc1019]

Hopefully a big signing proves this fear unfounded, but the rumors - or lack thereof - surrounding the Phillies and any of the bigger names seems to point to:
1) Phillies not willing to pay market price for proven bats
2) Then turning to trade market, where they also are not competitive due to still bottom-tier farm system

Taken together, that means a team that is not very much improved from last year. I hate to be pessimistic but a decade of not making the playoffs and failed high draft picks will do that to a fan base.

[andyb]

It is an issue with any .500 club of course, but since this is an older club then they really need to figure out how to get production from their prospects like Bohm or nothing works. It is bad luck that Haseley and Kingery are contributing nothing at the moment. Maybe bad scouting too, but some bad luck nonetheless. The decision to give Haseley and Kingery a shot was not wrong even if they might have executed it poorly with their (lack of) development.

While Chapman probably has a 75%+ chance of being better than Bohm the next 2 years, Bohm has a better chance of being better for a lower cost beyond that time frame. And the 25% chance that Bohm might click and be a 125 OPS+ bat next year is still real, and the DH might led them hide the defense more than they could in the past.

[zambonir]

No reason not to be pessimistic. But it's still kind of a buyer's market except at CF. I'm sure they will make a big signing for LF and it's not impossible that they swoop in late for someone else, a la Arrieta (or even Harper, curious to see how long Bryant and Correa sit on the market).

[andyb]

Phillies not willing to pay market price for proven bats

Not sure we can say that while the big OF bats (Castellanos, Bryant, Conforto, Schwarber) are still in the market. I think they are going hard after Bryant because it feels that is DD's type of move. And one can still sign a big bat and make deals for CF and/or 3B.

I am worried about the Phillies paying too much more than whether they are willing to pay market price. I think they just overpaid for Familia for instance.

[Aquapong]

Mlbtr is now reporting Odubel signing is close. Maybe a Odubel/Vierling CF platoon?

[andyb]

Character is clearly not a Dombrowski priority this offseason.

[David_Criss]

I trust DD to sprinkle some pixie dust and come up with the best defense and offense possibility, but it is looking harder and harder to add both glove and bat. It seems like it is one or the other with the names being discussed.

Bryant or Schwarber’s bats would be an awesome addition to the Phillies lineup, but dont really solves the CF, LF, SS and to a lesser extent 3B issues?

Guessing they sign a bat and trade for a glove.

There has been some talk that KC could make Benintendi available – that is a leftfielder who should be very high on the Phillies priority list.
Conforto bats left and has played CF and LF.
Herrera wouldn’t be a horrible bring back, at a lower price, to play CF.
Castillanos, another great bat, but has never played LF or CF.
Michael Taylor and Kevin Kiermaier are glove first, little to no bat trade possibilities - yawn
What about bringing McCutchen back for a platoon, spot DH role?
Is a trade for Laureano possible?

The problem is they can’t have two mediocre at best gloves in left AND center.

Vierling isn't ready for everyday action, is he? We all know Moniak and Haselely aren't exactly the Cardinals drafted young outfield.

[zambonir]

On the one hand, barring an actual zero tolerance policy (which as we know is technically against MLB policy) I'm willing to give the players a break. On the other hand, it's just as easy to sign two of many, many players who are just as good and don't have domestic violence incidents in their background.

If Herrera's deal is small enough, nothing's set in stone. They could use his presence as leverage with Tampa. They could also use him in LF if they are considering a RHB as the big piece.

I don't want Cutch back but that wouldn't surprise me either.

[frylock]

Not really thrilled with the offseason thus far, but could live with Herrera returning for CF assuming the salary is reasonable. Still expect they bring in a big OF bat. Not thrilled the big bat likely will be a poor defensive player. But we'll see what happens.

[gmwannabe]

a lot of talk with the chapman trade and adding Laureano. he had a great '19 and dropped considerably in '20n and '21. with what is being bantered about the Phils giving up for both of them. No Freakin Way. I'd give them D J Jefferson and maybe Maton. no more. Again, I think that Abel and Painter along with 2 other younger pitchers, have the makings of a great staff in the, not too distant future. Don't monkey with Rojas either. this kid has a chance to be a great one. hopefully he pans out. But with DD's past dealings, I cringe at what is going to happen.
gm

[bkox]

Gelb reports what we all suspect: Dombrowski is not authorized to go over the luxury tax. https://t.co/YNtY7DMy9b

— Destiny Lugardo ( @destiny_lugardo ) March 13, 2022

[andyb]

Latest from Gelb. Phillies still looking for a big bat. Will not go over the CBT. And are not really looking for any starting options (so get those Scott Moss and Nick Nelson scouting reports!). Remember we seem to have 2 healthy starters at the moment with Wheeler starting slowly, Eflin recovering, and Suarez in Colombia.

Phillies begin spring with an incomplete picture: on Zack Wheeler, Matt...

[Aquapong]

$43.9 mil below the tax after Familia according to Cots.

Bryant, Givens/Tepera, Odubel, and Villar. Bring Janko back for the bench.

[fish]

I suppose if you told me signing Herrera for a platoon was the trade off to ditch the Kiermier idea and go big in left with Bryant then I could tolerate it.

[Squire]

Agree....though candidly I'd just as much prefer to let Moniak or Haseley platoon with Vierling. if that is the plan.

[saycheese]

My thoughts on how the offseason before and after the lockout has gone. I think cautious is the correct wording for it. If the reports and rumors are true on some of the asks for trades of flawed players like Matt Chapman and Kevin Kiermaier I don't blame Dombrowksi for not dealing for them. You simply can't give up Stott or Abel or Painter at this point. However bringing back/in players like Familia and Herrera are who are both flawed and have domestic abuse histories is not good either. I would have rather gone with Moniak/Vierling/ resign Roman Quinn than go with Herrera.

I am wondering if the Phillies are having a problem attracting talent to come here. I mean Ottivino would have made more sense to me. But if you are him Phillies or Mets? Right now I think its the Mets as they are the shinny new toy owner who is actually spending stupid money. I do think attracting talent is an issue there for some reason. Now that could change if they get a Bryant or Castellanos or Schwarber that changes some.

Overall I expect more of the the same with smaller deals for lesser players than getting a big fish. Now of course I bet we hear something 5 minutes after I post this.

Also MLB is in danger here, the NFL offseason frenzy starts at noon with the "tampering period" That will dominate the news over most of the MLB signings.

[EDmuch]

Moniak for designated sacrifice bunter?